William Blair：2025年新兴市场报告：机遇无限（中译版）（28页）.pdf

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1、December 2024Portfolio ManagersMarcelo Assalin,CFA,PartnerPaul Birchenough Clifford Chi-wai Lau,CFATodd McClone,CFA,PartnerCasey Preyss,CFA,PartnerIan SmithVivian Lin Thurston,CFA,PartnerGlobal StrategistOlga Bitel,PartnerEmerging markets(EMs)remain an efficient gateway to powerful secular themes,fr

2、om technology-driven transformations to consumer growth stories.However,expectations of higher U.S.interest rates and a stronger dollar are likely to challenge EM currencies and investor sentiment in 2025,and the 2024 U.S.election introduced a new layer of uncertainty.EM investors should be prepared

3、 for uneven outcomes across regions.Emerging Markets 2025:A Landscape of OpportunityGLOBAL EQUITY/EMERGING MARKETS DEBT Investment Management 2|EMERGING MARKETS 2025:A LANDSCAPE OF OPPORTUNITYCorporate tax cuts and financial deregulationtogether with a specter of rising tariffs that will incentivize

4、 stockpilingare likely to turbocharge already robust growth in the United States early in 2025.To the extent that the newly minted,time-limited Department of Government Efficiency(DOGE)committee incentivizes digitalization of federal government efforts,this could bring information technology(IT)serv

5、ices projects and further down the road,efficiency and quality-of-service gains for the U.S.government.The inflation outlook is now less clear,too.We expect U.S.households will likely bear the full brunt of price increases that result from tariffs.Thus,higher prices mean reduced purchasing power and

6、,therefore,reduced demand.Tariffs are a regressive tax on domestic consumers;poorer consumers pay a higher share of their income for goods and therefore pay a higher proportion(relative to their income)of tariffs,as tariffs on steel and autos are likely in the near term insofar as they have been pre