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1、Michele Della Vigna,CFA +39 02 8022-2242 Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE-Milan branch EQUITYRESEARCH|October 9,2024|6:00PM CESTGoldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest t

2、hat could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures,see the Disclosure Appendix,or go to employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified a

3、s research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.The Goldman Sachs Group,Inc.The GS net zero carbon scenarios a reality checkWe update our paths to net zero carbon that we introduced in June 2021,reflecting rising emissions and coal use since the 2022 energy crisis and material changes to our Carbonomics c

4、ost curve.We now present three global paths for de-carbonization by sector and technology,adding a GS 2.0 scenario alongside our GS 1.5 and GS 2.0 scenarios.We highlight four main changes since 2021:1)The 1.5 scenario would require an acceleration in de-carbonization efforts that we view as increasi

5、ngly difficult to achieve(e.g.global coal retirement by the early 2030s,implying$1.7 trn of stranded assets,and full electrification of auto sales by 2035).2)The more realistic,but still ambitious scenario aligned with 2.0 of global warming would imply lower coal stranded assets,but also a likely ma

6、terial increase in adaptation costs by 2050(vs the 1.5 scenario).3)Tracking the progress by technology,we highlight an acceleration in adoption of EVs,solar and nuclear,while technologies higher on the cost curve have shown slower take-up than expected(hydrogen,carbon capture).4)We see a longer life