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1、Global Technical Analysis Research02 August 2024J P M O R G A NTechnical StrategyJason Hunter AC(1-212)270-J.P.Morgan Securities LLCThe 5s/30s curve made a clear break out from the 2022-2024 base pattern and approached the 59bp Mar 2021 50%retracement target before it faded intraday.Look for short-t

2、erm consolidation below that area over the near-term,but we see the potential for further steepening into the fall.Such a trend would like see the front end take a firm leadership role and coincide with a 2s/5s curve break out through resistance between-25bp and-12bp.Those levels marked the 2000,200

3、8,and 2019 cycle troughs and have contained the 2023-2024 base pattern.A base breakout of that front-end anchored curve would all but confirm markets have shifted to end-of-cycle dynamics,in our view.The 2-year note rallied through the 4.115%Jan yield low to 3.89-3.905%technical levels.Look for that

4、 4.115%area to act as new support for short-term mean reversions.We think the market can take a rest here,but look for the rally to extend to the 3.555%Mar 2023 yield low into the fall and as bearish risky-market seasonals take hold.The 5-year note break through the 4.00-4.15%longer-term pattern res

5、istance zone proved to be a watershed event,as the trend seems to have taken on a more linear character now.Look for tactical backups to find support near 3.745%now.We expect the rally to extend to the next cluster of levels at 3.09-3.20%in the fall.Even though they lagged,points further out on the

6、curve also saw transitions to more linear rally legs with the 10-year note reaching the 3.78%Jan yield low.Other resistance rests at 3.625-3.725%pattern and Fibonacci levels,then the 3.50%Oct-Apr equal swings objective.Our TY premium-weighted Put/Call ratio z-score indicator is likely in extreme ter