《德国邮政敦豪集团（DEUTSCHE POST DHL GROUP）2024年第二季度业绩报告（英文版）（22页）.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《德国邮政敦豪集团（DEUTSCHE POST DHL GROUP）2024年第二季度业绩报告（英文版）（22页）.pdf（22页珍藏版）》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。

1、Q2 2024 RESULTSMELANIE KREIS,GROUP CFODHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIONSAugust 1st,20241Management comments:H1 performance delivered on expectations andwe started seeing some first signals of improvingB2Bdemand.As this supports our assumptions of at leastslightly improving market conditions in H2,wetoday

2、fully confirm our FY 2024 and mid-termguidance.22Guidance confirmed:On track to deliver on 2024 guidance with usual seasonality further supported by targeted cost and yield measuresQ2 2024 Group HighlightsQ2 developed as expected with no broad-based recovery yetResilient earnings and cash flow again

3、st prolonged cycle trough:Strong base for cyclical recovery and structural growth opportunities Q2 fully in line with internal and market expectations:Effective cost and capex control in place to navigate market troughQ2 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIONS|1 AUGUST 2024Management comments:Asex

4、pected,cyclicalB2Bbusinessesstartturning back into growth territory following aprolongedperiodof inventorydestocking.At the same time,activity levels are showingsignals of a gradual market turnaround ratherthan any dynamic acceleration.Across the mainregions,Europe continued to see the weakestmoment

5、um.Disruptions in the Ocean Freight market makevolume developments more difficult to interpret.Beyond temporary effects,the return to yoygrowth in all three B2B modes should howeveralso reflect that destocking is coming to an end.Beyond the debate how much of Ocean Freightpeak season is currently pu

6、lled forward,the factthat there is an Ocean peak season is a positivesignalon thecyclebyitself.3Q2 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIONS|1 AUGUST 20243B2B volumes developmentSigns of improvement but no widespread acceleration yet*excl.Hillebrand Air(+5%yoy)and Ocean(+6%yoy)Freight volumes in Q2

7、maintain similaryoy growth as in Q1,as orders frombusiness customers start to re-alignwith underlying demand after a longperiodofdestocking Express B2B volumes gradually turningpositive at+1%yoy-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022*Q3 2022*Q4 2022*Q1 2023*Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023Q1

8、2024Q2 2024Express TDI B2B Shipments/day yoyAir Freight Export Volumes(tons)yoyOcean Freight Volumes(TEU)yoy4Management comments:As previously flagged,Q2 performance was in line with expectations and the trends observed in Q1.EBIT decline in Express is mainly driven byprolongedsubduedglobalB2Bvolume

9、development while B2C shipments reflect ouryieldfocus.Supply Chain stands out with steady top-and bottom-line growth reflecting its resilient business model and supportive structural tailwinds from megatrends like e-commerce and digitalisation.P&P Germany EBIT is down vs Q1 due to the planned wage i

10、ncrease.Against the low EBIT comparison from last year which was marked by cost inflation,P&P EBIT is slightly up,mainly driven by parcel revenue growth(+9%yoy)and continued cost measures.683m-24%yoyEXPRESS279m-28%yoyGLOBAL FORWARDING,FREIGHT279m+3%yoy130m+6%yoySUPPLY CHAINP&P GERMANY TDI shipments/

11、day down-3%yoy with B2B slightly up(+1%yoy)and B2C down(-8%yoy)Continued solid double-digit margin in prolonged cycle trough Mid-single digit yoyvolume growth in Air(+5%)and Ocean(+6%)Ocean Freight GP/TEU stable sequentially DGF EBIT/GP conversion rate of 28%Continued good top-and bottom line perfor

12、mance Growth mainly driven by new business wins Well on track to deliver another year of record results Intact volume growth as structuralB2C trend offsets cautious consumer spending Solid margin of 4%in context of current network investment phase 11.5%average wage increase effective as of April 1st

13、 EBIT on track towards 800m FY 2024 target,driven by parcel growth and cost measures67m-14%yoyECOMMERCEQ2 2024 Group EBIT of 1,351m(-20%yoy)4Q2 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIONS|1 AUGUST 2024Q2 in line with expectations on Group level and divisional trendsManagement comments:Express is expec

14、ted to be a key driver of thehigher EBIT run rate in H2,as reflected in our FY2024 guidance.Besidestheongoingcontributionofyielddiscipline and cost and capacity management,weexpect the acceleration in H2 to be driven byusual seasonality.In addition,we expect asignificantcontributionfromthefirst-time

15、introduction of a demand surcharge,which willensure that temporary demand volatility andrelated network costs around the peak seasonareadequatelyreflectedin pricing.5Express H2 perspectivesSeasonality to be supported by additional yield measures and continued cost focusQ2 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVE

16、STOR RELATIONS|1 AUGUST 20245Drivers of EBIT acceleration in H2-8%-4%0%4%8%12%JanFebMarAprMayJunAPACEuropeAmericas+4%H1 2024 yoylike-for-like rev/kiloIntroduction of demand surcharge as of Sept 15th2024YIELD DISCPLINECOST&CAPACITY MANAGEMENTActive cost management remains fully in place.Additional ca

17、pacities secured on selected lanes;incremental volumes to generate operating leverage in currently lower utilized parts of the networkVOLUME GROWTHH2 normal seasonality mainly driven by 40%share of B2C volumes;B2B volumes to reflect further development of inventories Q2 2024 data points developing a

18、s expected:Some positive signals but no widespread volume acceleration yetTDI B2B Weights/Day,yoy3550FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023EBITTDI Weight Load Factor354045505560025005000Q1 2024 Q2 20246Q2 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIONS|1 AUGUST 20246415410433435437711676531589561-100.020

19、0.0300.0400.0500.0600.0700.0800.00100200300400500600700800Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024Air Freight(AFR)GP/Unit()796 793 7717778474514263353593570200400600800100012001400160018000100200300400500600Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024Ocean Freight(OFR)Volumes(000 tons;000 TEU)While there

20、are disruptions in ocean freight markets,continuedvolume growth in Q2 also reflects improving demand ascustomers start re-aligning their orders with underlying demandafter longperiodof destocking GP/TEU stable sequentially in disrupted markets:OFR market increasingly tight during Q2,mainly reflectin

21、g supply limitations and related secondary effects AFR market tightness is concentrated on Asia outbound lanes Limitedfinancial impactfromthe RedSea disruptions inQ2 2024 DGFEBIT/GP conversionrate stablesequentially at 28%+6%yoy+5%yoyGlobal Forwarding,FreightConfirmation of volume growth,gross profi

22、t margins stabilizingManagement comments:Despite the upturn in spot rates in Q2,GP/TEUwas stable q-o-q as freight rate movementsinfluenced forwarding businesses on both buyingandsellingside.In Air Freight,markets are particularly tight inAsiareflectingongoingstronge-commercedemand as well as spillov

23、er effects from theOcean Freight disruptions.However,freight ratesare less volatile in other main regions wheresupplyanddemandaremorebalanced.7Management comments:The new Postal Law has come into force inGermany on July 19th,2024.From a financialperspective,the law creates more adequateconditionsmai

24、nlyregardingmailpricingregulation and delivery requirements under theUSO.This allows Deutsche Post to continue toensure universal postal service provision in asustainablemanner.Going forward,we expect P&P Germany EBIT toreturn to 1bn annual run-rate as of FY 2025,which will allow the division to pur

25、sue thestructural transformation from declining mail toe-commerce driven parcel growth on a self-financedbasis.At the same time,we see other aspects of thenew law critically,suchasan increase inbureaucracy and the unilateral promotion ofcompetitionsupport.Q2 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIONS

26、|1 AUGUST 20247*Universal Service ObligationNetwork accessMail competitors can inject a broader set of shipments into our networkUSO*New delivery requirements allowing for increased network flexibilitySanctions/ReportingIncreased bureaucracy due to additional regulatory oversightPrice regulationStab

27、le basis for calculation of profit margin,no longer linked to peer profitabilityPost&Parcel GermanyNew postal law enables us to continue the transformation from mail to parcel in a profitable and self-sufficient way towards an EBIT of 1bn as of 2025Q2 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIONS|1 AUGU

28、ST 20248Cash Flow StatementFree Cash FlowNet interestNet M&ANet Cash for LeasesNet capex Operating Cash FlowOtherChanges in Working CapitalDepreciation/amortizationEBIT1,3511,611344-739-15-9-4671,166-439-504Q2 2024-749-1791,084Q2 20231,6931,849450-768-681-656Mainly related to q-o-q revenue growthRef

29、lects reduction of investments in network expansion in line with volume developmentMainly driven by positive change in provision and lower tax paymentsMainly related to continued growth and new business wins in DSCPositive contribution from interest swap on bond issuance in 2023-342-238-58-65-9+264+

30、282-260+82yoy-106Ongoing investments in structural growth opportunitiesCash Flow StatementCapex flexibility key driver for FCF resilience on track towards 3bn FY 2024 target in mManagement comments:The main observation on Q2 FCF is that capexcontrol led to 264m lower cash outflow oninvestments,allow

31、ingustolargelyoffsetthe-342myoyreductionin EBIT.Higher working capital,reflecting volume growthand higher freight rates in DGFF,is beingbalanced by higher depreciation,which reflectsour structural growth investments in the recentyears,as well as a good flow-through from EBITto OCF.With capex control

32、 remaining a key focus,we arewell on track to deliver on our cash flowguidancefor yoy stable FCF excl.Net M&A at 3bn for FY2024.8Management comments:Capex and hence Capex/revenue showed anunusual peak in FY 2019 related to the B777investment program in Express.Investmentsnormalizedasexpected afterth

33、at untilFY2022.With volume declines due to the prolongedinventory destocking cycle from late 2022 to mid2024,wesuccessfullyflexeddowncapexaccordingly.This established capex flexibility is amajor driver of our ongoing strong FCF(excl.NetM&A)performance of 3.3bn in FY 2023 and3bn expected inFY2024e.In

34、 H1 2024,the 3%Capex owned/Revenuefigures recorded both on Group level and Express(our most asset intensivedivision)reflected usualseasonality,but also demonstrates our flexibilityanddisciplinein capitalspending.9Capex managementCapex tightly controlled but ongoing investments in future growth oppor

35、tunitiesQ2 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIONS|1 AUGUST 202496%4%5%4%4%12%7%7%6%5%7%85%81%86%90%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%FY 2019FY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023Group Capex owned/RevenueExpress Capex owned/RevenueGroup FCF(excl.Net M&A)/Cons net profit3%Group Capex owned/

36、Revenue3%Express Capex owned/RevenueH1 2024Management comments:H1 2024 developed in line with the expectationsset out in our FY 2024 guidance.B2B volumesdid not see any meaningful acceleration in H1yet,as expected.At the same time,there are firstpositivesignsemergingthatsupportourassumptions for imp

37、roved market conditions inH2.On that basis,we confirm our assumptions andhencealsoour full guidanceset.10Q2 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIONS|1 AUGUST 202410STRUCTURAL FACTORSFactors influencing 2024 guidanceWell prepared for a still uncertain year guidance assumptions validated in H1STRUCTU

38、RAL GROWTH FROM E-COMMERCEDISCIPLINED YIELD MANAGEMENTBENEFITS FROM DIGITALIZATION&CONTINUED INVESTMENTSOMNI-SHORINGCYCLICAL FACTORSH1 2024 EBIT expected to decline yoy:Higher comparison base in Global Forwarding,Freight Lack of B2B recovery in Express;network costs subject to inflationH2 2024 EBIT

39、expected to increase yoy:Improvement in macroeconomic environmentGUIDANCE ASSUMPTIONSTIMING OF INVENTORY RIGHTSIZING PHASE PACE OF GDP DEVELOPMENTQ2 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIONS|1 AUGUST 2024112,6623,000300H1 2024 EBITH2 2024 EBIT incl.SeasonalityOngoing cost&yield management0-600Operat

40、ing leverage from cyclical improvementFY 2024 EBIT guidance6,000-6,600in mFY 2024 EBIT guidance bridgeOn track to deliver on guidance on usual seasonality supported by cost and yield measuresUnchanged focus on active cost management(headcount,cost and capex control)Delicate network balance:High focu

41、s on leveraging the flexibility of Express network(owned/leased/CAL*mix)Demand surcharge for 2024 peak season in Express as of Sep 15th 2024Upside from 6.0bn base to be determined by timing,intensity and shape of improvement in macro environment Current momentum points to low-end of guidance range,i

42、n line with current FY 2024 consensusH1-H2 pattern of 47-53%basedonnormalizedhistorical seasonality*Commercial Air LinehaulManagement comments:With H1 EBIT of close to 2.7bn,our FY 2024guidance implies an EBIT acceleration in H2 todrivea600m step-upin H2 EBITvsH1.As shown here,around half of the ste

43、p-uptowards the low end of guidance is actuallydrivenbysequentialseasonalitybasedonpatterns fromnormal pre-pandemic years,whereour B2C exposure was actually even lower thantoday.We also expect increased benefits from ourongoing costs and yield measures,with notably asignificant contribution from the

44、 introduction ofthefirst-everdemandsurchargefortheupcomingpeakseasonin Express.These two factors should allow us to achieve thelow end of FY 2024 guidance.The strength ofany cyclical acceleration will determine howmuchweexceedthefloorof our guidancerange.11Management comments:FY2024andmid-termguidan

45、ceremainsunchanged as H1 developments were in line withour assumptions and first signals of the expectedimprovementfor H2 aregraduallyemerging.As shown on the previous page,we expect thesequential step-up towards the low end of the2024guidancetobedrivenbynormalseasonalityas wellas increased benefits

46、 from ourongoingcostsandyieldmeasures.Upside from the 6.0bn base is to be determined by timing,intensity and shape of any improvement in the overall macroeconomic environment;momentum until today still rather points to the low-end of guidance range,in line with current FY 2024 consensus.H1 cash flow

47、 performance shows the benefits ofour flexible capex control,which supports our FY2024 andmid-termFCF guidance.12Q2 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIONS|1 AUGUST 2024122024 and mid-term guidance confirmedOutlook remains well above pre-pandemic levelin bnMid-term Guidance2026 Group EBIT7.5-8.5Fr

48、ee Cash Flow*2024-2026 cumulative9-10Gross Capex(excl.leases)2024-2026 cumulative9-11EBIT2024 GuidanceGroup6.0-6.6DHL5.7P&P Germany0.8Group Functions-0.45Free Cash Flow*3.0Gross Capex(excl.leases)3.0-3.6Tax Rate28-30%*excl.Net M&ANote:250m blanket budget for M&A expenses p.a.Q2 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROU

49、P INVESTOR RELATIONS|1 AUGUST 202413H1 market development in line with expectationsNo widespread recovery so far,as expected some progression in the economic cycle visibleEffective cost and capex control 2024 earnings and free cash flow to be significantly ahead of pre-pandemic levels,despite unusua

50、lly long cycle trough Strong basis for sustainable,profitable growthLeading logistics portfolio allows to leverage attractive structural growth megatrends Wrap-upOn track to deliver on FY 2024 targetsManagement comments:As reflected in our FY 2024 guidance,we expectusual seasonality alongside contin

51、ued cost andyield measures to allow us to deliver on the lowend of our FY 2024 guidance with the strengthoftheexpectedcyclicalimprovementtodetermine how much we will be able to move upwithinourguidancerange.Despite having gone through a longer than usualcyclical downturn,DHL Group FY 2024 earningsan

52、d FCF are hence expected to be significantlyaheadofformerrecordlevelsfrompre-pandemic,setting a strong base for furtherprofitablegrowthto come.13INTRODUCTION OFSTRATEGY 203024 SEP 202410.30 AM CEST(FOR INVESTORS/ANALYSTS)HYBRIDDHL Group Investor Relations111415APPENDIXQ2 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVES

53、TOR RELATIONS|1 AUGUST 202415Q2 2024 developments in line with expectationsGroup P&LQ2 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIONS|1 AUGUST 202416Revenue20,63920,094+2.7%Basic EPS(in)0.640.82-22.0%Net Profit attributable to DPAG shareholders744978-23.9%Income Taxes-345-442+21.9%EBIT1,3511,693-20.2%Gro

54、up P&L Q2 2024Q2 2023yoyin mBy way of a resolution of the Board of Management dated May 2,2024,the issued capital was reduced by 39 million through the retirement of 39,059,409 treasury shares.The issued capital is now composed of 1,200,000,000 no-par-value registered shares(ordinary shares).1617Q2

55、2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIONS|1 AUGUST 202417Supply ChainWell on track to deliver another year of record profits Steady topline growth,driven by strong pipeline of new business gains,mainly inLifeSciences&Healthcare,Retailand e-fulfillment DSC demonstrating resilience of business model b

56、ased on long-termcontracts,reflecting the structural acceleration of outsourcing drivenby ecommerceandomni-shoring.Continuedstrong 6%EBIT margindriven by Continued deployment of digitalization and automation,with7,000robotssupportingouroperationsglobally Standardization resultinginproductivityimprov

57、ements Focusonhighermargin solutions5bnTotal Contract Value signed in H1 2024+3%Q2 2024 yoyRevenuegrowth6%Q2 2024 EBIT margin93%Renewal rateH1 202418Q2 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIONS|1 AUGUST 202418eCommerceAttractive structural e-commerce growth;currently in network expansion&investing p

58、hase140kOut of home points+4%Q2 2024 yoyOrganic revenue growth4%Q2 2024 EBIT margin96%On-time delivery Intact volume growth as structural B2C trend offsets cautiousconsumer spending:like-for-like Q2 2024 B2C volume+14%yoy inEuropeand+9%yoyglobally Solid margin of 4%in context of current network inve

59、stment phase,building foundation for growth by investing in network infrastructure:hubs,facilities,fleet,lockers Largestintegratedout-of-home(OOH)parcelnetwork inEurope19Q2 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIONS|1 AUGUST 202419Post&Parcel GermanyStructural e-commerce trend remains intact and is r

60、eflected in the continued parcel growth-6%Q2 2024 yoyMail*volume+5%Q2 2024 yoyParcel Germany volume+9%Q2 2024 yoyParcel Germany revenue121mCosts increase from wage agreement in Q2 2024 yoy Parcel volume and revenue growth in Q2 reflected structurale-commercetrend,strongpricingandone additionalworkin

61、gday As previously flagged,the second round of the wage agreement cameinto effect on April 1stwith an estimated yoy impact of 400m for FY2024 With 324m EBIT generated in H1 2024,P&P Germany is on track todeliver FY 2024EBITtarget of 800m*Mail=Mail Communication&Dialogue Marketing2020Post&Parcel Germ

62、any(1/2)New postal law enables us to continue the transformation from mail to parcel in a profitable and self-sufficient way towards an EBIT of 1bn as of 2025Enlarged scope(ex-ante products)Letters(national and export),partial services letters and C2X parcels=5bn revenue(previous law:2bn)EBIT margin

63、Benchmark for risk-adjusted average EBIT margin changed from postal peers to EURO STOXX 50(excl.fin.serv.providers)More stable basis for calculation of profit margin due to change in benchmarkNew delivery speed requirementDate of posting+3 days at 95%(previous law:date of posting+2 days at 95%)Digit

64、alizationAllowing for fully automated retail outletsAllows more efficient cost structure for mail delivery,incl.joint delivery.More cost effective fully automated Post StationOptional:change in mail product structureExpected price headroom announcement by regulator(Bundesnetzagentur)in Q4 2024New pr

65、icing starting January 1st,2025New delivery requirements starting January 1st,2025Operational efficiencies due to USO changes to materialize through continuous process improvementsKey ElementsAssessment vs old lawTimelinePrice regulationUniversal Service ObligationQ2 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR

66、RELATIONS|1 AUGUST 202421Q2 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIONS|1 AUGUST 202421 but new postal law also has some drawbacks and missed opportunitiesNetwork accessPartial accessMail competitors can inject small parcel shipments(Warensendungen),newspapers and magazines into our network Volatile e

67、xternal injection increases unit costs in USO products letters and parcelsIncrease in regulatory intensityFines for violations of tariff regulation rulesObligation to report all prices to the Federal Network Agency for parcel customer contractsIncreased bureaucracy and risk of legal disputes in case

68、 of alleged non-complianceIn force since July 19th,2024Fines:In force since July 19th,2024Submitting prices:requires regulator to determine market dominanceSanctions and ReportingPost&Parcel Germany(2/2)Key ElementsAssessment vs old lawTimelineDisclaimerThis presentation contains certain statements

69、that are neither reported results nor other historical information.These forward-looking statementsare subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements.Many of these risks and uncertainties relate to factor

70、s that are beyond Deutsche Post AGs ability to control or estimate precisely,such as futuremarket and economic conditions,the behavior of other market participants,the ability to successfully integrate acquired businesses and achieveanticipated synergies and the actions of government regulators.Read

71、ers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-lookingstatements,which apply only as of the date of this presentation.Deutsche Post AG does not undertake any obligation to publicly release anyrevisions tothese forward-lookingstatements toreflect events or circumstancesafter the dateo

72、fthis presentation.This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to subscribe for or buy any security,nor shall there be any sale,issuanceortransfer ofthe securitiesreferred toin thispresentation inany jurisdictionincontravention ofapplicable law.Copies of th

73、is presentation and any documentation relating to the Offer are not being,and must not be,directly or indirectly,mailed or otherwiseforwarded,distributedor sentin orintoor fromAustralia,Canadaor Japanor any otherjurisdictionwhereto doso wouldbe unlawful.Thisdocumentrepresents theCompanysjudgmentas ofdate ofthis presentation.Please findourprivacy noticehere:https:/