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1、Mid-year Economic Outlook 2024-25:Games wide open?Rtroviseur extrieur noir montrant la route photo Photo Islande Gratuite sur Unslash Allianz 2024Film Industry Clapper Board Photograph by Panoramic Images-Fine Art AmericaAllianz ResearchEnd of Q2 2024 updated economic and capital markets outlook 25

2、June 2024 Allianz 2024GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024-2025Mid-year Economic Outlook 2024-25:Games wide open?1Ready,steady,slow.Global growth bottomed-out in H1,but the global manufacturing sector is still in excess supply,with low demand in the Eurozone in particular.Recession risks persist in the Euro

3、zone and are rising in the US as the labor market is softening.Overall,we expect global GDP growth at+2.8%in 2024-25,with growth slowing to+1.7%in the US and reaching potential in the Eurozone at+1.4%in 2025.China will continue to manage its growth slowdown(+4.3%in 2025).2Pushing limits,chasing gold

4、?Inflation is moderating,albeit at a slower pace,notably in the US as services inflation remains sticky,delaying the first Fed cut to December.The ECB will cut once more in September but then wait for the FED before continuing the easing cycle in 2025.Central banks in emerging markets remain in caut

5、ious easing mode as the Fed delay halts optimism.3No risk,no fun?Risks remain tilted to the downside given heightened uncertainty in a Super-Election Year.Our downside scenario(fiscal slippage&rising geopolitical risks)would mean-1.5pp lower global growth and+1pp higher inflation,which should keep i

6、nterest rates higher for longer.4Train hard,win big.The revival of the investment cycle is delayed to early 2025,then supported by the easing of financial and monetary conditions,but companies will remain in wait-and-see mode for major investment decisions,given the rise in(geo)political uncertainty

7、.5Chasing dreams.The comeback of the European consumer remains timid as uncertainty prevents ambitious spending patterns and continues to feed into higher saving rates.6Pursue greatness.The fiscal impulse is only moderately negative in major advanced economies and further fiscal-consolidation effort

8、s will be delayed to after the elections.In Europe,all eyes will be on the adjustment path of the seven countries non-compliant with the newly reinstated fiscal rules(France,Italy,Belgium,Poland,Romania,Hungary).Reducing public debt ratios needs primary surpluses 1.5%of GDP on average(against defici

9、ts of-3%end-2023).7Strength unveiled.Emerging markets stand to benefit from supply-chain diversification.Cost competitiveness has improved almost everywhere since 2015,apart from Central and Eastern Europe.Southeast Asia appears particularly well-positioned to attract investment.Resilient domestic d

10、emand will support GDP growth across regions into 2025,even though it is set to remain below the pre-crises level.8Victorys stride,no limits ride.Corporate earnings are resilient but the transatlantic divide persists and investments are at the bare minimum.Earnings have been resilient but 60%of US s

11、ectors are outperforming European peers.Corporate credit remains sluggish as most firms are investing to compensate for depreciation using own resources but 20%of sectors are underinvesting compared to depreciation.9Onward,upward,podium?US offices are not out of the woods yet.We expect the CRE valua

12、tion to bottom out in 2024 with the start of the easing cycle.However,US offices continue to suffer from structural headwinds.Vacancy rates have hit record highs amid weak demand,investment activity remains anemic despite significant corrections in transaction prices and some valuation losses are ye

13、t to be internalized by market players.10Sweat equity pays dividends.Markets continue to push through.Global equity markets are performing well due to strong earnings resilience and mid-term trends like AI,climate change and reshoring.Despite high US equity valuations,we expect low double-digit retu

14、rns in 2024 if the policy pivot remains in place and earnings remain resilient.Gradual policy shifts are likely to lower long-term yields,with German Bunds potentially seeing safe-haven demand.In the US,large fiscal deficits may keep long-term yields higher for longer.Corporate-credit demand remains

15、 strong,with attractive yields despite tight spreads.Corporate spreads should remain stable due to the earnings resilience and manageable debt metrics.Allianz 2024Global macro2024-20253 Allianz 2024GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024-2025Growth has bottomed-out in H1Activity prospects are improving thanks

16、to the global trade accelerationGlobal PMI Manufacturing subindicesGlobal growth to recover in H2 2024 thanks to a pick-up of net trade and consumptionWorld GDP growth(%q/q)and contributions(pp)Sources:S&P Global,Allianz ResearchSources:Allianz Research3035404550556020152017201920212023OutputNew Ord

17、ersBacklogs1.0-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.520222023202420252026USEUUKChinaAsia-Pacific excl.ChinaLatin AmericaRest of the worldWorldForecasts4 Allianz 2024GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024-2025Global manufacturing still in excess supply,with particularly low demand in the EurozoneManufacturing excessive supply an

18、d low demand points to low price pressuresDeveloped market manufacturing demand still weak while emerging markets have improvedNote:horizontal axis represents an index for Production shortfall(New orders Output),vertical axis represents an index for Demand(New orders+Backlogs of work)Sources:S&P Glo

19、bal,Allianz ResearchNote:horizontal axis represents demand in Developed Markets,vertical axis represents demand in Emerging MarketsSources:S&P Global,Allianz ResearchH2 2019H2 2020H2 2021H2 2022H2 2023Jan24May24H2 2019H2 2020H2 2021H2 2022H2 2023Jan24May24USEurozoneSupply shortfall,strong demandExce

20、ssive supply,low demandH1 2020H2 2020H1 2021H2 2021H1 2022H2 2022H1 2023H2 2023Jan24Feb24Mar24Apr24May24Synchronised expansionSynchronised declineDM expansion,EM declineDM decline,EM expansion5 Allianz 2024GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024-2025Risks are on the downside given a super-election year and ong

21、oing global conflictsNotes:We only outline the scenarios that have at least 20%probabilityColors refer to economic outcome from green(positive)to red(negative)and the black arrows to our baseline political assumptionsFrance Elections(June 30&July 7th)Majority Nouveau Front PopulaireMajority Rassembl

22、ement nationalTechnocratic-Front RpublicainUK Elections(July 4th)Ambitious LabourPragmatic LabourCoalition BreaksGermany(H2 2024)Coalition HoldsUS Elections(Nov 5th)Trump-Disruptive trade policiesPolicy continuityTrump contained trade warEconomic impactFiscal slippage of 2%of GDPCost to GDP growth:1

23、.5pp;Inflation impact:1ppHigher for longer interest ratesTimelineBaseline for developed economies:Moderate fiscal consolidation&monetary policy easingGDP growth at 1.7%in 2025Inflation at 2.7%Ongoing geopolitical conflicts in Russia-Ukraine,Middle east and tensions in the South-China-Sea and Taiwan.

24、Our Baseline:No further significant escalation.6 Allianz 2024Policy continuity(50%)Trump contained trade war(25%)Trump disruptive trade policy(20%)Moderate fiscal tightening;tariff hikes concentrated on China.Contained trade war(US effective tariff rate to 4.5%);stepped-up boarder controls on import

25、s;moderate fiscal expansion funded by customs receiptsFull-blown trade war(US effective tariff rate to 12%);stepped-up border controls on imports fiscal expansion funded by customs receipts,but weaker economy increase deficitsEconomic indicatorsUnit20232024202520262025202620252026Real GDP growth%2.5

26、2.31.72.21.21.90.31.6Inflation%4.13.02.02.13.62.84.22.5Fiscal deficit%of GDP6.25.66.15.76.25.86.96.6Fed policy rate%(eop)5.55.254.03.255.253.755.52.75Market indicatorsUnit2023202420252026202520262025202610y Treasury rate%3.874.003.803.604.203.804.303.50IG Corp.spreadbps104100908011090200160HY Corp.s

27、preadbps334330320310360330600450S&P 500ytd%261397712-1510What a Trump government would mean for the economy and capital markets in the USSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research Allianz 20247What a Labour government would mean for the economy and capital markets in the UKPragmatic Labour government(

28、80%probability)Ambitious Labour government(20%probability)Moderate fiscal consolidation ahead;Lower GDP growth(1.5%in real terms);Stable GBP by 2027,moderate gains in the FTSE 250(+2%)and gilt Strong fiscal consolidation to bite in 2026;trough in real GDP growth at 0.7%;depreciation of-7%of the ster

29、ling due to capital flight;FTSE 250 down-13%and gilt at 4.0%in 2025Economic indicatorsUnit202320242025202620252026Real GDP growth%0.11.31.91.52.40.7Inflation%7.32.62.22.23.53.1Fiscal shortfall%of GDP-0.4-0.3-1.6-1.6BoE key interest rates year-end%5.254.753.753.004.253.50Market indicatorsUnit20232024

30、202520262025202610y Bond yield%3.503.703.503.204.003.70IG Corp.spreadbps134120120110170160HY Corp.spreadbps515440410380650550FTSE 100ytd%3.857682FTSE 250ytd%4.4455-133Sources:OBR,LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research Allianz 20248What a RN vs left/far-left government would mean for the economy and capita

31、l markets in FranceTechnocratic-Front Republicain(50%)Majority Rassemblement National(25%)Majority Nouveau Front Populaire(20%)Moderate fiscal tightening of 0.2%GDP to assuage markets and EC.GDP growth unchanged in 2025Fiscal expansion of 1%GDP spread over 2025-26;GDP growth shelved by-0.3pp in 2025

32、 as tighter financial conditions biteFiscal expansion of 1.2%GDP spread over 2025-26;Strong increase in minimum wage;GDP growth shelved by-0.3pp in 2025 as tighter financial conditions biteEconomic indicatorsUnit2023202420252024202520242025Real GDP growth%1.10.91.30.81.00.81.0Inflation%4.92.31.82.31

33、.72.32.2Fiscal deficit%of GDP5.55.24.95.35.75.46.0Market outcomesBuy the dipIncreased FR risk premiumEuro crisisMarket indicatorsUnit202320242025202420252024202510y OAT spread%536050907012090ECB activates TPI NoUnlikelyLikelyIG Corp.spreadbps133120120250190190150CAC40ytd%16.5+7+10-6+5-12+9House pric

34、eytd%-1.5-2.4+1.6-3.2+1.2-3.7+1.7Sources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research Allianz 20249Depending on the implementation of the electoral pledges both scenarios can have the following market implicationsGrowth(yearly%)2021202220232024f2025fGlobal6.43.12.72.82.8USA5.81.92.52.31.7Latin America7.33.91.92

35、.02.7Brazil5.13.12.92.02.4UK8.74.40.11.31.9Eurozone5.93.50.60.71.4Germany3.11.90.00.10.9France6.82.61.10.91.3Italy8.34.21.00.81.2Spain6.45.82.52.11.7Central and Eastern Europe6.11.01.12.23.2Poland6.95.90.12.23.2Russia5.9-1.3 3.73.62.0Trkiye11.45.54.54.64.1Asia-Pacific6.83.24.44.24.0China8.53.05.35.0

36、4.3Japan2.61.01.90.21.2India9.46.57.86.86.5Middle East4.66.11.72.23.2Saudi Arabia5.17.5-1.1 1.65.3Africa5.93.92.83.23.5South Africa5.01.90.71.41.4GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024-2025Growing transatlantic divideGlobal real GDP growth(%)10 Allianz 2024Sources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz ResearchTransatlantic

37、 divide in domestic demand translates to growth divergenceIndex,Q4 2019=100GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024-2025Transatlantic divide also visible in corporate financialsUS outperforming in revenue growth in 60%of sectors S&P 500 earnings and revenue growth,y/y in%Earnings recession in Europe Stoxx 600 e

38、arnings and revenue growth,y/y in%Sources:LSEG Refinitiv,Allianz ResearchSources:LSEG Refinitiv,Allianz Research11-5%0%5%10%15%20%Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2eQ4eQ2eQ4e2022202320242025RevenueEarnings-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1e Q2e Q3e Q4e Q1e Q2e2022202320242025RevenueEarnings Allianz

39、 2024GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024-2025Recession risks still present in the Eurozone,rising in the USUS labor market points to increasing risks as the unemployment rate slowly edges up%Large dispersion of leading indicators in the Eurozone raises uncertainty of economic forecasts%,Z-scoreSources:LSGE

40、 Datastream,Allianz ResearchSham rule=three-month average of the unemployment rate 12-month low.When it rises above 0.5 p.p.the rule predicts the early stage of a recession.Sources:LSGE Datastream,Allianz ResearchNotes:Median leading indicator is the median of several normalized leading indicators(Z

41、-scores)such as PMIs,change in credit demand,economic sentiment,consumer confidence.12 Allianz 202413GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024-2025Fiscal consolidation delayed after election yearPotential breaches to the new EU fiscal rules on the horizon%of GDPSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz ResearchSources:LSE

42、G Datastream,IMF,EC AMECO,Allianz Research.Note:green dots refer to non-EU countries,for which the EU fiscal framework doesnt apply Allianz 20240%3%6%9%202120222023OutstandingRRF/GDP 2023GermanyFranceItalySpainPortugalGreeceNGEU will boost(southern)Europe investment as 65%of resources will be paid o

43、ut in 2024-26 NGEU funds disbursed and remaining,%of GDPDEFRITESBENLGRPTUKUS020406080100120140160-9.0-8.0-7.0-6.0-5.0-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.0Debt RatioFiscal Balance Debt at 60%ofGDPDeficit at-3%ofGDP20242025Debt at 90%ofGDP14GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024-2025and only marginal compared to debt-stabiliz

44、ing needsStructural challenges require even more fiscal efforts in the long-run%of GDPSources:LSEG Datastream,EC AMECO,Allianz Research.Note:for countries with debt-to-GDP ratio expected to increased in 2024-25,the stabilizing primary balance is reported in the chart.Source:ECB Allianz 2024Fiscal ef

45、forts needed to stabilize debt-to-GDP would be higher than planned for most countriesPrimary fiscal balance%GDP-12-10-8-6-4-2024201420162018202020222024USUKDEFRIT-3-1135LUSISKLTESIECYBEPTNLATMTDEFIEEFRITHRGRLVEAEducationHealth care and long-term carePensionsTotalGLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024-2025Timi

46、d comeback of the consumer as uncertainty prevents from ambitious spending patterns15Real wage growth yet to reach its peakReal wage growth,y/y in%Savings rates tend to increase in an uncertain environmentHousehold saving rates in%,geopolitical risk indexSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz ResearchSourc

47、es:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research Allianz 2024GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024-2025The revival of the investment cycle is yet to comeFixed investment still on the downsideGross fixed capital formation,y/y in%Easing financial conditions should support a pick-up in investment early 2025Z-score based on

48、M1,equity prices,interest rates&FXSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz ResearchSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research-10-505101520002005201020152020FCI USFCI EuroFCI UK Allianz 202416Corporates use their own resources to maintain capacitiesLending to non-financial corporations is sluggish Outstanding l

49、oans,y/y in%Sources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research Only 1 sector out of 5 is underinvestingSources:LSEG Refinitiv,Allianz Research.Bubble size:LT debt to equity ratio,the smaller the better17Aerospace&Defense Automobiles&Auto Parts Chemicals Coal Computers,Phones&Household Electronics Construction

50、&Engineering Diversified Retail Food&Tobacco Homebuilding&Construction Supplies Insurance Investment Banking&Investment Services Machinery,Tools,Heavy Vehicles,Trains&Ships Metals&Mining Natural Gas Utilities Oil&Gas Oil&Gas Related Equipment and Services Pharmaceuticals Residential&Commercial REITs

51、 Semiconductors&Semiconductor Equipment Software&IT Services Textiles&Apparel Transport Infrastructure-23813180123Interest coverage ratioCapex-to-depreciation ratioBubble size:LT debt-to-equity-25-20-15-10-505101520Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24USEurozoneUK Allian

52、z 2024GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024-2025GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024-2025Trade rebounds moderately in volume but price pressures remain on the downsideGlobal trade growth should remain below averagein volume terms,+3.6%in 2024 and+3.5%in 2025Global demand is recovering but overcapacity persists.Geopo

53、litics is raising freight rates.Global Manufacturing indices(y/y change)and freight rates (%y/y,rhs)Sources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz ResearchSources:S&P Global,Bloomberg,Allianz Research183.3%4.0%2.9%2.3%5.6%4.2%1.6%-7.6%11.2%5.5%-0.7%3.6%3.5%2.8%2.1%-10.5%-2.2%10.5%9.5%-1.3%-9.3%23.5%13.2%-3.0%3.0%4

54、.1%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%2013201520172019202120232025VolumePriceValue-150-100-50050100-15-10-50510Q42022Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42023Q12024May2024DemandExcess supplyProfitabilityFreight rates(rhs)Allianz 2024GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024-2025Disinflation hiccups as expected but targets to be reached

55、in 2025Inflation forecasts,%Approaching central bank targets in 2025Quarterly inflation rates,y/y%Sources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research19 Allianz 2024GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024-2025Oil prices broadly stableOil prices to remain expensive despite lower demandUSDDespite higher break-evens,OPEC+unl

56、ikely to be able to tip prices upSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research Sources:IMF,Allianz Research,Note:*Not an OPEC+member506070809010011012013020212022202320242025Brent Crude2015-2019 Average2024 average USD 842025 average USD 81145889798996464554280581268812694124846658439657AlgeriaAzerbaijan

57、BahrainIraqKazakhstanKuwaitLibyaOmanQatar*Saudi ArabiaUAE050100150200October 2023April 2024 Allianz 202420GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024-2025Energy crisis still has lingering effectsElectricity consumption in the EU has not recoveredy/y%change in consumption vs Natural Gas price rhs:EUR/MWhElectricity

58、 prices still an issue in GermanyIndex(Jan 2021=100)Sources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz ResearchMonthly average of base load prices-NY ISO for US,EPEX for European countries(Jan 2021=100)Sources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research050100150200250-20-1001020302020202120222023GermanyItalyFranceSpainTTF Gas Pr

59、ice(rhs)020040060080010002021202220232024US(NYC)FranceGermanyUK Allianz 20242122GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024-2025Labor market tightness easing globallyNominal wage growth to normalize by 2025 quarterly y/y in%Despite historically low unemployment rates vacancy-to-unemployment ratios are off their hi

60、ghsvacancy-unemployed ratioSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz ResearchSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research Allianz 202423Timid central bank easing cycles given rising transatlantic divergenceCentral bank cutting cycle initiated in Europe while the Fed will keep rates higher for a(bit)longer%Opposit

61、e divergence in QT:While ECB accelerates,the Fed slows down the balance sheet run-offbn USD,EUR,GBP(RHS)Sources:LSEG Datastream,Bloomberg,Allianz ResearchSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz ResearchNotes:The ECB announced to stop full reinvestment of bonds in its PEPP program from July 2024 onwards effe

62、ctively increasing QT from an average of EUR30bn per month to EUR37.5bn,while the Fed announced to limit its monthly runoff from currently USD95bn to USD60bn per month from June 2024 onwards.Allianz 2024GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024-202524GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024-2025Central banks in emerging mar

63、kets in cautious mode as delays in Fed easing halt optimismSources:IIF,LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research.Latest data point as of end-May 24.Date labels mark year-end.Sources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research.Expectation shift:expected policy rate cuts in EMs have been scaled backpptsPortfolio outflows

64、 in April showedEM vulnerabilitiesMonthly foreign portfolio flows by region,USD bn-75-50-25025507520202021202220232024EM-Asia Ex-ChinaLatAmCEEMEAChina Allianz 20243.910.412.18.713.09.55.05.96.611.90%20%40%60%BRMXCLCHINIDPOHUTKZALatamAsiaCEEMEA2024202520263.54.55.56.57.58.5040801201602002011201320152

65、0172019202120232025%USD bnHard currency issuances(sov)Avg coupon(index based),rhsYield(index weights),rhsWatch out for EM fiscal risks:(delayed)monetary easing wont cushion the embedded deteriorationSovereign bonds maturing by year,as share of total bond outstandingIncludes avg mat of outstanding go

66、v.bonds(years)on topHard currency issuances remain strong,but average cost is rising as new debt is costlier than maturing debtSources:IIF,LSEG Datastream,National sources,Allianz Research.Currency composition of the debt varies widely across selected countries.Loans and other debt instruments not i

67、ncluded.Sources:Bloomberg,LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research.Hard currency=Foreign currency.Data for yields and average coupons as of end-of-quarter.25GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024-2025 Allianz 202450607080901001101201302019202020212022202320242025Central&EasternEuropeNorthAmericaWesternEuropeAfricaAPA

68、CexcludingChinaGlobalLatinAmericaChina26Sources:National sources,Allianz ResearchInsolvencies to rise by+10%in 2024 before stabilizing at high levels in 2025Global and regional insolvency indicesindex 100=2019Sources:National sources,Allianz Research2024 expectations,level and trendForecastTrkiyeGer

69、manyCanadaIrelandSpainNetherlandsSweden(+20%and more)U.S.ItalyPortugalBrazilAustriaNoticeablyLatviaEstoniaBelgiumincreasingNew ZealandFrance(+10%to+20%)RussiaHong-KongMoroccoSouth KoreaCzechiaChinaJapanAustraliaIncreasingLithuaniaLuxembourgIndiaFinland(0%to+10%)NorwaySingaporePolandRomaniaSlovakiaSw

70、itzerlandUKDecreasingChileSouth AfricaBulgariaColombiaTaiwanDenmarkHungaryVery low levelLow levelHigh levelVery high level(more than-15%)(-15%to 0%)(0%to+15%)(+15%and more)2024 expected change(y/y)Strongly increasing2024 expected level compared to 2016-19 Allianz 2024Regional outlooks2024-202527 All

71、ianz 2024UNITED STATESInterest rates pressuring some segments of the economy,but broad liquidity remains looseSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz ResearchSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research051015202519982004201020162022Fed Funds ratePersonal loansCredit cardsSMEs short-term loans-30-101030507090201

72、2201420162018202020222024Monetary baseFed securities holdings28 Allianz 2024Elevated interest rates are pressuring some segments of the economy%but broader liquidity not as tight for nowy/y%UNITED STATESA disruptive Trump presidency could push up inflation in the short and medium termAggressive trad

73、e policy would slow disinflation or push up short-term inflation%A Trump presidency could pressure the Fed to ease monetary policy and/or devalue the USDindexSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz ResearchNotes:Contained trade war:US effective tariff rate to 4.3%+stepped up customs checks;Disruptive trade

74、policy=US effective tariff rate to 12%+stepped up customs checks.Sources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research00.511.522.533.5BaselineTrump-containedtrade warTrump-disruptivetrade policy20242025809010011012013014015016017019801990200020102020Real trade-weighted dollar index29 Allianz 2024GERMANYPotential

75、 growth remains low with deteriorated competitiveness and stagnating labor productivityCompetitiveness of German manufacturing has been deteriorating for the last two yearsIndex,net balance seasonally adjustedStagnation in labor productivity per hour worked by employed individuals since 2022Index,20

76、15=100 seasonally adjustedSources:ifo Institute economic surveys(April 2024),Allianz ResearchSources:Bundesbank,Allianz Research707580859095100105110199219962000200420082012201620202024-20.0-10.00.010.020.0199419992004200920142019Domesticwith EUoutside EU30 Allianz 2024FRANCEFrench economy muddling

77、though;political uncertainty clouding the outlookBusiness sentiment through June has weakened%,index(RHS)The flows of new funding to corporates have stalledEUR bnSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz ResearchSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research7580859095100105110-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.020192021

78、2023GDP growth(%q/q)BdF Business sentiment-rhs-500501001502002502005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023BondsLoans total31 Allianz 2024ITALYNGEU to make up for Superbonus push to investmentInvestment has been the main growth driver while consumption has remained quite weakGDP components,ind

79、ex 2019=100But easing financial conditions and small gains in real incomes should support spending in H2%y/y and indexSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz ResearchSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research32 Allianz 2024SPAINOverperformance to stay,but underlying drivers of growth are volatileNet exports t

80、o remain an important growth driver going forwardGDP contributions and growth,ppts and%.with vigorous tourism hitting record-high levels of activityTotal tourist expenditure,EUR bnSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz ResearchSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research020406080100120JanAprJulOct2024202320222

81、02120202019-3.0%-1.0%1.0%3.0%5.0%7.0%2021202220232024f2025fPublic SpendingConsumer SpendingInvestmentNet ExportsChanges in Stocks33 Allianz 2024UNITED KINGDOMIn a recovery modeThe easing of the labor market should help reduce inflationary pressuresFunding conditions are improving for corporatesindex

82、34 Allianz 2024CHINAManaged slowdown overall masks heterogeneity amidst policy support and overcapacityGrowing by“around 5%”in 2024 as plannedReal GDP growth%y/y and contributionsPrice pressures to remain limited given soft demand and overcapacityCapacity utilization rates(%),China total and sectors

83、 vs.selected countriesSources:National Sources,LSEG Datastream,Allianz ResearchSources:National Sources,LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research2.28.43.05.25.04.3-1135791120112014201720202023Private ConsumptionGovernment ConsumptionGross Capital FormationNet exportsGDP%y/y60657075808590AustraliaGermanyFranc

84、eMalaysiaSwitzerlandNon-ferrous metalFerrous metalUSPharmaMiningComputers&TelecomManufacturingIndonesiaTotalElectric machin.&equip.PhilippinesCoalSouth KoreaUtilitiesFoodAutoQ1 2024Q1 202335 Allianz 2024EMERGING MARKETSSoutheast-Asia remains fastest growing region thanks to strong domestic demandRea

85、l GDP growth(%)and contributions(pp)forecasts for 2024Sources:National statistics,EIU,LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research36 Allianz 2024EMERGING MARKETSThe supply-chain reshuffling will continue,and new trade hubs are emergingCost competitiveness will increase attractiveness of some manufacturing hubsC

86、hange in Unit Labor Costs(ULC)and Real Effective Exchange Rate(REER)Latin America and Eastern Europe continue to be attractive destinations for near-and friend-shoring FDI inflows as%of GDPSources:EIU,Allianz ResearchNote:2022 data released in April 2024.A sample of major emerging countries was sele

87、cted.Sources:UNCTAD,Allianz Research-1012345ChileColombiaHungaryPeruBrazilUAEViet NamPolandMalaysiaRomaniaCzechiaOmanEthiopiaEgyptBulgariaKazakhstanSaudi ArabiaMexicoArgentinaPhilippinesSouth AfricaThailandMauritiusIndonesiaMoroccoTunisiaIndiaTurkiyeTaiwanSouth KoreaChinaBangladeshKenyaKuwaitPakista

88、nIranAlgeriaQatarNigeriaIraqRussiaAverage-160-120-80-4004080120EgyptPakistanArgentinaTurkiyeMalaysiaPhilippinesVietnamPeruColombiaSouth AfricaThailandIndiaBrazilTaiwanChinaChileKazakhstanPolandIndonesiaHungaryRussiaMexicoCzechiaBulgariaRomaniaREER(ULC-based),%change 2015-2023ULC relative to the US,%

89、change 2015-202337 Allianz 20240.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.020182019202020212022202320242025AustraliaIndiaIndonesiaMalaysiaPhilippinesSouth KoreaTaiwanThailandVietnamREGIONAL OUTLOOKS 2024-2025APAC:emerging Asia excl.China to accelerate in 2024 on easing domestic and external conditionsGDP growth forecas

90、ts and short-term country risk as of Q2 2024Inflation back to target,still below-trend growth and upcoming Fed easing will allow for a start in the cutting cycleSources:Allianz ResearchSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research38 Allianz 2024REGIONAL OUTLOOKS 2024-2025EM Europe:Modest recovery support

91、ed by lower inflation and gradual monetary easingGDP growth and short-term country risk as of Q2 2024CZ and HU central banks well ahead of the ECB in cutting rates,but pace of monetary easing will slowSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research Sources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research 39 Allianz 202480

92、100120140160180200JanFebMarAprMayJunAlgeriaEgyptGhanaKenyaMoroccoNigeriaSouth AfricaTanzaniaTunisiaCFA FrancREGIONAL OUTLOOKS 2024-2025Africa&Middle East:Large government interventions still needed Egypt and Nigeria have basically re-pegged,while debt-distressed Ghana and Kenya are following specula

93、r pathsLC needed per USD 1,index:end-2023=100Sources National Sources,Allianz ResearchSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research40Less cash coming into Gulf economies(apart from the UAE)and more cash going out%BahrainKuwaitOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaUAE-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%-10%0%10%20%30%40%Fisca

94、l balance as%of GDPCurrent account balance as%of GDP2024f2022 Allianz 2024-7.0-6.0-5.0-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.0ArgentinaBrazilChileColombiaMexicoPeruLatAm 5Average 2010-20192024f2025f80100120202120222023BRLCOPCLPMXNPENcurrency appreciatescurrency depreciatesREGIONAL OUTLOOKS 2024-2025Latin America:Shor

95、t-term challenges back to normal with FX and fiscal on top of the listCentral banks stance still FX-positive,despite MXN election premium and CLP exposure to copper pricesexchange rate vs.USD,index:end-2022=100Fiscal deficits to remain distant from pre-crises levels,while Colombia and Mexico retain

96、a primary surplus%of GDP41 Allianz 2024Sources:National Sources,Allianz ResearchNote:LatAm 5 includes Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Mexico and Peru.Sources:IMF,Allianz ResearchCapital Markets outlook2024-202542 Allianz 2024CAPITAL MARKETSMid-point review:Markets dominated by central bank pricing,political w

97、oes and global trendsRates roller-coaster on fluctuating central bank expectationsyields and yield expectations,%Sources:Bloomberg,Allianz ResearchNotes:ECB/FED in 2026 represents market pricing using Money Market Futures for December 2026French spreads decoupling on fiscal distress and election fea

98、rs10y government bond spreads vs.DE,bpsAI and defense dominate the equity rally,Europe falls behind Index,100=Jul 20231.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.5Jul 23Oct 23Jan 24Apr 24ECB in 2026DE 10yFed in 2026US 10yFed(mid)ECB Dep.RateSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz ResearchSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Re

99、search Allianz 2024438090100110120130140150Jul 23Oct 23Jan 24Apr 24MSCI WorldFuture of defenceAmerican reshoringSustainable impactNasdaq 100Eurostoxx(USD)050100150200250Jul 23Oct 23Jan 24Apr 24Euro SwapFranceItalySpainCAPITAL MARKETS FORECAST SUMMARYMarkets to navigate the policy-heavy environmentCa

100、pital Markets:Eurozone and USyear-end figuresCapital Markets:UK,Emerging Markets,FXyear-end figures44 Allianz 2024FIXED INCOME-RATESLong-term yields torn between central bank easing and government spendingSovereign bond yields to fall slightly on lower policy rates and further normalizing inflation

101、expectations10y government bond yields in%Net debt issuance to slow down the fall in yieldsFair value US 10y government bond yield,annual delta in bpsSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz ResearchSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research45-150-100-5005010015020025030020182019202020212022202320242025Fed pol

102、.rate contr.Inflation expect.contr.ISM contr.Demand/supply contr.US 10y deltaUS 10y fair value deltaForecast Allianz 2024FIXED INCOME-RATESMonetary policy normalization to rebalance inverted curves but little room left for Eurozone spreads Yield curve inversion to cease unevenly,Germany lags with co

103、mparatively high ECB terminal rate10y 2y government bond yields in bpsSpread normalization continues anticipating ECB pivot,economic rebound and European integrationYield spreads vs.10y German bund yields in bpsSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz ResearchSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research46-150-10

104、0-500501001502002503003501999200320072011201520192023US 2y10yGermany 2y10yUK 2y10y Allianz 202447FIXED INCOME-RATESEurozone spreads:Deterioration of fiscal position or rating in France would increase the risk premiumFiscal deficits translate to wider spreads but other factors at play,too(growth outl

105、ook,debt pile,etc.)Germany and Portugal biggest outliers on sovereign rating vs.government spreads cross-checkSources:LSEG Datastream,Ameco,Allianz ResearchNotes:Primary balance cycl.adj.referring to 2024 AMECO estimate,spreads as of 24/06/2024Sources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz ResearchNote:Numerical s

106、cale of S&P ranges from 1(AAA)to 10(BBB-)in the IG range;spreads as of 24/06/2024DEFRNLFNBGOEESPTIT-4004080120160200-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.010y gov.spread vs DE in bpPrimary balance cycl.adj.in%of GDPDEFRNLFNBGOEESPTIT-4004080120160200024681010y gov.spread vs DE in bpS&P sovereign rating(numeric

107、al scale)Allianz 2024FXModest depreciation ahead for the USD amid gradual economic and geopolitical normalizationThe USD looks increasingly overvalued against JPY and CNY but not the EUR Real effective exchange rate indices(2014=100)Interest rate differential points to ongoing weakness of EURUSD but

108、 lower geopolitical risk should supportYield differentials in pp and EURUSD exchange rateSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz ResearchSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research48 Allianz 202449MARKET UNCERTAINTYPolitical risk does not stop with France;the US elections are likely to keep market uncertainty

109、highMarkets are currently positioned for a pick-up in volatility around the US elections dateA Trump victory would have immediate repercussion on the rest of global FI and EQ marketsSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz ResearchNote:Dots indicate future marketsSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research Alli

110、anz 202450EQUITY MARKETSThe positive earnings momentum is aiding market fundamentals,but confidence remains mutedThe earnings season has led to an upward revision of earnings expectations and reinforced the rallyBut economic confidence,especially from the corporate side remains subduedSources:LSEG D

111、atastream,Allianz ResearchNote:Earnings breadth represents the#of earnings expectations revised up vs the ones being revised downSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research Allianz 202451EQUITY MARKETSUS EQ looks expensive vis-a-vis the RoW,but 10-15%should be attainable across the board in 2024Regiona

112、lly,US equities continue to look expensive vis-a-vis the rest of the world due to their TMT*component12m FWD PE ratiosResilient earnings and favorable risk appetite set stage for equities to finish 2024 at 10-15%total returnSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research*TMT:Technology,Media&TelecomNote:Da

113、tastream Equity IndicesSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research1 Allianz 202452CORPORATE CREDITCredit spreads are expensive,but yields remain attractiveCorporate spreads trade close to the lowest post-GFC bound yet yield levels remain attractiveDebt-servicing capacity keeps deteriorating but central

114、 banks pivot should help alleviate the burdenSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz ResearchSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research Allianz 202453CORPORATE CREDITCorporate spreads are tight;uncertainty should keep spreads from structurally compressing furtherHigh-yield spreads have compressed a lot on the

115、 back of low default rates and economic resiliencey/y change in IG-HY spread differentialsCorporate spreads look tight given the uncertainty thus we do not expect a significant compressionSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz ResearchSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research Allianz 2024EMERGING MARKETSEM

116、spreads hold tight;potential gains from yield declines and carry threatened by political risks(FX)Little room for further hard currency spread compression-yields to trend lower(not exempt of volatility)Dark blue dots represent key hard currency spreads of key countriesYields repricing&FX weakness de

117、railed H1 performance but,prospects are good-elections-turmoil allowingTotal returns in local currency(LC)sovereign year-to-dateSources:Bloomberg,LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research.HC=Hard Currency.LC=Local Currency.Sov=Sovereign.Sources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research.Calculations used bond indexes

118、with bonds across the whole maturity spectrum.54-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%BRA CHL MEXCOL CHN IDN MYS PHL THA IND KOR TUR ZAF CZE POLHUNPrice returns(in LC)Exchange rate lossesLC Coupon returns(in LC)LC Bonds returns(in USD)Allianz 2024EMERGING MARKETSEM equities underperforming amidst wide dispersion

119、 across countries and FX risksBetter than expected year to date but lagging AEs equities;little tailwinds from global equities expectedWide performance differences across major countries with India and Taiwan semiconductors as main success storiesEquity risk premium proxied as 12M forward earnings y

120、ield vs.sov.yieldSources:LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research.AEs:advanced economies.Sources:IBES,LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research.55 Allianz 202456REAL ESTATECommercial real estate:the situation should not deteriorate further except for US officesPrices declines have continued into 2024 but should stab

121、ilize going forward except for US officesIndices rebased as of 2002(or inception for DE offices)Debt-funding gap of CREby sector in the US(USD bn)Five-year loans originated in 2018,2019,2020,2021Sources:BIS,ECB,LSEG Datastream,Allianz Research.Figures on the right indicate the cumulated decline in p

122、rices since Q2 2022.Sources:CBRE,Allianz Research-40-20020406080100120IndustrialRetailMultifamilyOffice2023202420252026 Allianz 202457REAL ESTATEUS offices:vacancy rate hits record-high amid weak demand while rent spread keeps wideningDemand and supply for US officesOffice asking rent vs taking rent

123、(USD/sqft)Sources:CBRE,Allianz Research.Sources:CBRE,Allianz Research.2.252.452.652.853.053.253.453.653.854.054.2530.0031.0032.0033.0034.0035.0036.0037.0038.00Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q120202021202220232024Spread(rhs)Asking rentTaking rent0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%-40-30-20-100102030Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q120202021202220232024Net absorptionCompletionsVacancy rate(rhs)Allianz 2024 Allianz 2024