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1、2024 World Economic Outlook1/25/2024Marubeni Research Institute(Translated from the original Japanese version released at the end of December 2023(slightly updated)Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Major Countries/Main Points2 Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.While there will be a slo

2、wdown,major deterioration will be avoided-Situation in which the world economy lacks a driving force.World Real GDP Growth Rate31.2024 World EconomyThe worlds real GDP growth rate in 2024 is expected to come in at+2.9%.Although there will be a slowdown mainly in advanced economies throughthe first h

3、alf of the year,a significant economic downturn will be avoided.Demand in the U.S.unexpectedly swung upward in 2023,however,itshouldbe restrained in 2024 due to the existing tight monetary policy,Inflation in major developed economies will continue to trend lower nextyear.However,the decline in unde

4、rlying inflation relative to the compositeindex will lag,and it will take time for prices to stabilize at the Inflation policytarget of 2%.The U.S.policy interest rate(currently 5.25%-5.50%)will begin to be cutfrom mid-2024 but is expected to remain at the mid 4%level until the end of2024 as suggest

5、ed by the Federal Reserve(FRB).One risk factor is if themarkets view diverges from this by expecting rates to fall below 4%Duringthe same period.The restrained monetary climate should continue with ratecuts becoming more modest compared to the pace of decline in inflation.In China,the recovery in co

6、nsumption and investment is slowing as housingmarket corrections continue.In Japan,the focus will be on the momentumtoward wage hikes and tighter monetary policy revisions.In Europe,soaringprices have run their course,however,a recovery in personal consumptionwill likely be weak.The global economic