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1、Allianz ResearchSoft landing:AllianzTrade26 March 202404Macroeconomic outlook:Special effects for growth19Capital markets outlook:The 2024 soft landing is the trailer;2025 will be action-packed.Its a wrap?Global Economic Outlook 2024-25Updated at end of Q1 20242 Special effects for growth,inflation

2、is acting up.We expect sluggish economic momentum ahead,with global GDP growing by less than+3%between 2024-25.While growth in the advanced economies will remain stable at+1.6%in 2024,it will slow down to+4%(-0.3pp)for emerging markets,mainly driven by Asia excluding Asean and Latin American countri

3、es.The divergence in growth performance between the US and Europe from 2023 is expected to narrow starting in H2 2024.The US is expected to grow by+1.7%in 2025 after+2.4%in 2024 while the Eurozones growth should accelerate to+1.5%in 2025 after+0.7%in 2024 based on the upcoming positive real income e

4、ffect.Global trade is exiting recession,but the recovery will be limited by the inventory glut.Continued geopolitical tensions may also limit the rebound in Chinese exports,while downside pressures abound domestically and policymakers ramp up fiscal and monetary easing to cushion the economic slowdo

5、wn.In the meantime,inflation should be getting closer to target by the summer.The pick-up in sequential core inflation in Europe and the US over the past couple of months has reignited concerns.Yet,we think that disinflation will continue:in Europe due to prolonged stagnating domestic demand and the

6、 unwinding of remaining supply constraints,and in the US because aggregate demand is now clearly cooling down.Central bankers much expected twist:The summer pivot.Beware of the curtain call for fiscal policy.The Fed is expected to pivot in July and deliver a total of 100bps in rate cuts by the end o