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1、 0 The Rapid Rise of Generative AI Assessing risks to safety and security Ardi Janjeva,Alexander Harris,Sarah Mercer,Alexander Kasprzyk and Anna Gausen December 2023 RESEARCH REPORT Ardi Janjeva,Alexander Harris,Sarah Mercer,Alexander Kasprzyk and Anna Gausen 1 About CETaS.2 Acknowledgements.2 Execu

2、tive Summary.3 Recommendations.8 1.An Introduction to Generative AI.11 1.1 A short history of AI.11 1.2 The pace of change.13 1.3 Methodology.17 2.Evaluating Political,Digital and Physical Security Risks.20 2.1 Political security.21 2.2 Digital security.28 2.3 Physical security.33 2.4 Weighing malic

3、ious and incidental sources of risk.36 3.Generative AI and Future Intelligence Capabilities:Opportunities and Limitations.43 3.1 Enlarging the investigative toolbox:analysis and summarisation.43 3.2 Open-source and commercial models:innovation vs risk management.52 4.Governance,Policy and Regulation

4、.55 4.1 Signalling and reporting.56 4.2 Prohibition and red lines.66 4.3 Strengths and weaknesses in the legislative environment.67 4.4 Global governance.68 4.5 Training,guidance and safeguards.74 Case Studies.77 Case study 1:OSINT Summarisation.77 Case study 2:Synthetic Data Generation.80 About the

5、 Authors.84 The image used on the cover and back cover was generated by OpenAIs DALL-E 2.The Rapid Rise of Generative AI:Assessing risks to safety and security 2 About CETaS The Centre for Emerging Technology and Security(CETaS)is a research centre based at The Alan Turing Institute,the UKs national

6、 institute for data science and artificial intelligence.The Centres mission is to inform UK security policy through evidence-based,interdisciplinary research on emerging technology issues.Connect with CETaS at cetas.turing.ac.uk.This research was supported by The Alan Turing Institutes Defence and S