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1、2024 Single-Family Housing and Commercial Real Estate OutlookMark J.Eppli,Ph.D.Director,Graaskamp Center for Real EstateWisconsin School of Business,University of WisconsinOctober 2,2023I.Single-family Housing MarketA.Sales Volume and Months of InventoryB.Home PricesII.Single-Family Mortgage Rates a

2、nd InflationA.Mortgage RatesB.InflationIII.Housing Demand and SupplyIV.Commercial Real Estate2024 Single-Family Housing and Commercial Real Estate OutlookREALTOR data on home sales is a difficult place to start.REALTOR data on home sales is a difficult place to start.Source:National Association of R

3、EALTORS,Real Estate Market Outlook,August 2023.total housing sales are expected to stabilize to 2022 levels in 2024.Sources:Urban Institute,“Housing Finance at a Glance,”August 2023 and Graaskamp Center.YearFannie Mae EstimatesMortgage Bankers Assoc.Estimates Association of Home Builders Estimates20

4、216,891 6,896 6,189 20225,671 5,099 5,167 20234,915 4,990 4,524 20244,889 5,360 5,043 2023-2024 Change-0.5%7.4%11.5%Total Housing Sales in the U.S.(thousands).Wisconsin residential sales are down 23%in 2023.Source:WRA and Graaskamp Center.limited U.S.for-sale housing supply is hurting sales volume.S

5、ource:Urban Institute,“Housing Finance ata Glance,”August 2023,p.21.Wisconsins listing inventory is down 74%from 2016 levels.Source:Federal Reserve Economic Data.while tight,Wisconsins supply of housing has loosened up over the past year.Source:Wisconsin REALTORS Association,July 2023Wisconsin Real

6、Estate Report and the Graaskamp Center.PriceMonths Supply$0-$124,9992.8$125,000-$199,9992.3$200,000-$349,0002.6$350,000-$499,9993.8$500,000+6.2 State3.3 Region Months Supply Central3.5 North5.0 Northeast3.2 South Central3.1 Southeast2.9 West3.6 State3.3 Urban-Rural Classification Months Supply Metro