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1、Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 EditionLand-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition ii Disclaimer This report is being disseminated by the U.S.Department of Energy(DOE).As such,this document was prepared in compliance with Section 515 of the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for fi

2、scal year 2001(public law 106-554)and information quality guidelines issued by DOE.Though this report does not constitute“influential”information,as that term is defined in DOEs information quality guidelines or the Office of Management and Budgets Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review,the st

3、udy was reviewed both internally and externally prior to publication.For purposes of review,the study benefited from the advice and comments of 19 industry stakeholders,U.S.Government employees,and national laboratory staff.NOTICE This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency

4、 of the United States government.Neither the United States government nor any agency thereof,nor any of their employees,makes any warranty,express or implied,or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy,completeness,or usefulness of any information,apparatus,product,or process d

5、isclosed,or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights.Reference herein to any specific commercial product,process,or service by trade name,trademark,manufacturer,or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement,recommendation,or favoring by the United Sta

6、tes government or any agency thereof.The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or any agency thereof.Available electronically at SciTech Connect:http:/www.osti.gov/scitech Available for a processing fee to U.S.Departm

7、ent of Energy and its contractors,in paper,from:U.S.Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information P.O.Box 62 Oak Ridge,TN 37831-0062 OSTI:http:/www.osti.gov Phone:865.576.8401 Fax:865.576.5728 Email:reportsosti.gov Available for sale to the public,in paper,from:U.S.Department o

8、f Commerce National Technical Information Service 5301 Shawnee Road Alexandria,VA 22312 NTIS:http:/www.ntis.gov Phone:800.553.6847 or 703.605.6000 Fax:703.605.6900 Email:ordersntis.gov Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition iii Preparation and Authorship This report was prepared by Lawrence Berk

9、eley National Laboratory for the Wind Energy Technologies Office of the U.S.Department of Energys Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.Corresponding authors of the report are Ryan Wiser and Mark Bolinger,Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.The full author list includes:Ryan Wiser,Mark

10、Bolinger,Ben Hoen,Dev Millstein,Joe Rand,Galen Barbose,Nam Darghouth,Will Gorman,Seongeun Jeong,Eric OShaughnessy,and Ben Paulos.Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition iv Acknowledgments For their support of this ongoing report series,the authors thank the entire U.S.Department of Energy(DOE)Win

11、d Energy Technologies Office team.In particular,we acknowledge Gage Reber and Patrick Gilman.For reviewing elements of this report or providing key input,we also thank:Richard Bowers(U.S.Energy Information Administration);Charlie Smith(Energy Systems Integration Group);Feng Zhao(Global Wind Energy C

12、ouncil);Dixie Downing(U.S.International Trade Commission);Owen Roberts(National Renewable Energy Laboratory,NREL);Andrew David(Silverado);David Milborrow(consultant);John Hensley(American Clean Power Association);Mattox Hall(Vestas);Edgar DeMeo(consultant);Matt McCabe(ArcLight);Justin Sabrsula,Eliza

13、beth Chu,and Allison Holly(Pattern);Lawrence Willey(consultant);Geoffrey Klise(Sandia National Laboratories);and Patrick Gilman,Gage Reber,and Liz Hartman(DOE).For providing data that underlie aspects of the report,we thank the U.S.Energy Information Administration,BloombergNEF,Wood Mackenzie,Global

14、 Wind Energy Council,and the American Clean Power Association.Thanks also to Donna Heimiller(NREL)for assistance in mapping wind resource quality;and to Pardeep Toor and Alexsandra Lemke(NREL),and Liz Hartman and Wendell Grinton,Jr.(DOE)for assistance with layout,formatting,production,and communicat

15、ions.Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratorys contributions to this report were funded by the Wind Energy Technologies Office,Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy of the DOE under Contract No.DE-AC02-05CH11231.The authors are solely responsible for any omissions or errors contained herein.

16、Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition v List of Acronyms ACPACP American Clean Power Association BPABPA Bonneville Power Administration CAISOCAISO CODCOD CCACCA California Independent System Operator commercial operation date community choice aggregator CREZCREZ competitive renewable energy zon

17、es DOEDOE U.S.Department of Energy EIAEIA U.S.Energy Information Administration ERCOTERCOT Electric Reliability Council of Texas FAAFAA Federal Aviation Administration FERCFERC Federal Energy Regulatory Commission GEGE General Electric Corporation GWGW gigawatt HTSHTS Harmonized Tariff Schedule IOUI

18、OU investor-owned utility IPPIPP independent power producer ISOISO independent system operator ISOISO-NENE New England Independent System Operator ITCITC investment tax credit kVkV kilovolt kWkW kilowatt kWhkWh kilowatt-hour LCOELCOE levelized cost of energy mm2 2 square meter MISOMISO Midcontinent

19、Independent System Operator MWMW megawatt MWhMWh megawatt-hour NRELNREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory NYISONYISO New York Independent System Operator O&MO&M operations and maintenance OEMOEM original equipment manufacturer PJMPJM PJM Interconnection POUPOU Publicly-owned utility PPAPPA power

20、purchase agreement PTCPTC production tax credit Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition vi PVPV photovoltaics RECREC renewable energy certificate RPSRPS renewables portfolio standard RTORTO regional transmission organization SGRESGRE Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy SPPSPP Southwest Power Pool WW

21、watt WAPAWAPA Western Area Power Administration WECCWECC Western Electricity Coordinating Council Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition vii Executive Summary Wind power additions in the United States totaled 8.5 gigawatts(GW)in 2022.1 Wind power growth has historically been supported by the ind

22、ustrys primary federal incentivethe production tax credit(PTC)as well as myriad state-level policies.Long-term improvements in the cost and performance of wind power technologies have also been key drivers for wind additions.Nonetheless,2022 was a relatively slow year in terms of new wind power depl

23、oymentthe lowest since 2018due in part to ongoing supply chain pressures,higher interest rates,and interconnection and siting challenges,but also the reduction in the value of the PTC that was in place up until the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)in August 2022.Passage of IRA promises new

24、 market dynamics for wind power deployment and supply chain investments in the years ahead.IRA contains a long-term extension of the PTC at full value(assuming that new wage and apprenticeship standards are met)along with opportunities for wind plants to earn two 10 percent bonus credits that add to

25、 the PTC for meeting domestic content requirements and for locating projects in energy communities.Among many other provisions,IRA also includes new production-based and investment-based tax credits to support the build-out of domestic clean energy manufacturing.Though it is too early to see the ful

26、l impacts of IRA in historical data,IRA has already impacted analyst forecasts for future wind power capacity additions and wind industry supply-chain announcements.Key findings from this years Land-Based Wind Market Reportwhich primarily focuses on land-based,utility-scale windinclude:Installation

27、Trends The U.S.added 8.5 GW of wind power capacity in 2022,totaling$12 billion of investment.Development was concentrated in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas(ERCOT)and the Southwest Power Pool(SPP).2 Cumulative wind capacity grew to more than 144 gigawatts(GW)by the end of 2022.In addition,

28、1.7 GW of existing wind plants were partially repowered in 2022(the final,repowered capacity of these plants is 1.8 GW),mostly by upgrading rotors(blades)and nacelle components like gearboxes and generators.Wind power represented the second largest source of U.S.electric-power capacity additions in

29、2022,at 22%,behind solars 49%.Wind power constituted 22%of all generation and storage capacity additions in 2022.Over the last decade,wind represented 27%of total capacity additions,and a larger fraction of new capacity in SPP(85%),ERCOT(49%),the Midcontinent Independent System Operator(MISO)(47%),a

30、nd the non-ISO West(30%).Globally,the United States again ranked second in annual wind capacity but remained well behind the market leaders in wind energy penetration.Global wind additions totaled over 77 GW in 2022,yielding a cumulative 906 GW.The United States remained the second-leading market in

31、 terms of annual and cumulative capacity,behind China.Many countries have achieved high wind electricity shares,with wind supplying 57%of Denmarks total electricity generation in 2022 and more than 20%in a total of eight countries.In the United States,wind supplied about 10%of total generation.Texas

32、 once again installed the most wind capacity of any state in 2022(4,028 MW),followed by Oklahoma(1,607 MW);twelve states exceeded 20%wind energy penetration.Texas also remained the leader on a cumulative capacity basis,with more than 40 GW.Notably,the wind capacity installed in Iowa supplied 62%of a

33、ll in-state electricity generation in 2022,followed by South Dakota(55%),1 Note that this report seeks to align with American Clean Power(ACP)for annual wind capacity additions and project-level specifics,where possible.Differences in reporting exist between ACP and the Energy Information Administra

34、tion.2 The nine regions most used in this report are the Southwest Power Pool(SPP),Electric Reliability Council of Texas(ERCOT),Midcontinent Independent System Operator(MISO),California Independent System Operator(CAISO),ISO New England(ISO-NE),PJM Interconnection(PJM),and New York Independent Syste

35、m Operator(NYISO),and the non-ISO West and Southeast.Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition viii Kansas(47%),Oklahoma(44%),North Dakota(37%),New Mexico(35%),and Nebraska(31%).Within independent system operators(ISOs),wind electricity shares(expressed as a percentage of load)were 37.9%in SPP,24.8

36、%in ERCOT,14.5%in MISO,8.7%in California Independent System Operator(CAISO),4.0%in PJM Interconnection(PJM),3.2%in ISO New England(ISO-NE),and 3.1%in New York Independent System Operator(NYISO).Hybrid wind plants that pair wind with storage and other resources saw limited growth in 2022,with just on

37、e new project completed.There were 41 hybrid wind power plants in operation at the end of 2022,representing 2.6 GW of wind and 0.8 GW of co-located generation or storage assets.The most common wind hybrid project combines wind and storage technology,where 1.4 GW of wind has been paired with 0.2 GW o

38、f battery storage.The average storage duration of these projects is 0.6 hours,suggesting a focus on ancillary services and limited capacity to shift large amounts of energy across time.While only one new wind hybridcombining wind,solar photovoltaics(PV),and storagewas commissioned in 2022,solar hybr

39、ids continue to expand rapidly with 59 new PV+storage projects coming online in 2022.A record-high 300 GW of wind power capacity now exists in transmission interconnection queues,but solar and storage are growing at a much more rapid pace.At the end of 2022,there were 300 GW of wind capacity seeking

40、 transmission interconnection,including 113 GW of offshore wind and 24 GW of hybrid projects(in the latter case,mostly wind paired with storage).NYISO,the non-ISO West,and PJM had the greatest quantity of wind in their queues at the end of 2022.In 2022,90 GW of wind capacity entered interconnection

41、queues,41%of which was for offshore wind plants.Storage and solar interconnection requests have increased rapidly in recent years,oftentimes pairing solar with storage.Industry Trends Just four turbine manufacturers,led by GE,supplied all the U.S.utility-scale wind power capacity installed in 2022.I

42、n 2022,GE captured 58%of the market for turbine installations,followed by Vestas with 24%,Nordex with 10%,and Siemens-Gamesa Renewable Energy(SGRE)with 8%.3 The domestic wind industry supply chain began 2022 in decline,but passage of the Inflation Reduction Act has created renewed optimism about sup

43、ply-chain expansion.The number of wind turbine towers and nacelles(which sit on top of the tower and house the gearbox and generator)that we can manufacture domestically in the United States has held steady or increased over the last several years.At the end of 2022,domestic capacity was 15 GW per y

44、ear for nacelle assembly and 11 GW per year for tower manufacturing.Blade manufacturing continued its decline in 2022,with under 4 GW per year of capability by the end of the year.More broadly,many turbine manufacturers continued to face declining and even negative profit margins in 2022.Nonetheless

45、,wind-related job totals increased by 4.5%in 2022,to 125,580 full-time workers.Moreover,passage of the Inflation Reduction Act holds promise for addressing recent domestic supply-chain challenges and fueling expansion:at least eleven new,re-opened,or expanded manufacturing facilities have been annou

46、nced in recent months to serve the land-based wind market,totaling more than 3,000 new jobs.Domestic manufacturing content is strong for some wind turbine components,but the U.S.wind industry remains reliant on imports.The United States imports wind equipment from many countries,including most promi

47、nently in 2022:Mexico,India,and Spain.Nonetheless,for wind projects installed in 2022,over 85%of nacelle assembly and 70%85%of tower manufacturing occurred in the United States;in the case of towers,benefitting from import tariffs.For blades,domestic content was just 525%in 2022,having plummeted in

48、recent years.How these trends change after passage of the Inflation Reduction Act remains to be seen,though supply-chain announcements in recent months suggest a resurgence in domestic manufacturing.3 Numerical values presented here and elsewhere may not add to 100%,due to rounding.Land-Based Wind M

49、arket Report:2023 Edition ix Independent power producers own most wind assets built in 2022,extending historical trends.Independent power producers(IPPs)own 84%of the new wind capacity installed in the United States in 2022,with the remaining assets(16%)owned by investor-owned utilities.For the firs

50、t time,non-utility buyers entered into more contracts to purchase wind than did utilities in 2022.Direct retail purchasers of windincluding corporate offtakersbuy electricity from at least 44%of the new wind capacity installed in 2022.This 44%share exceeds,for the first time,that of electric utiliti

51、es,who either own(16%)or buy electricity from(17%)wind projects that,in total,represent 33%of the new capacity installed in 2022.Merchant/quasi-merchant projects and power marketers make up at least another 3%and 6%,respectively,while the remainder(14%)is presently undisclosed.Technology Trends Turb

52、ine capacity,rotor diameter,and hub height have all increased significantly over the long term.To optimize project cost and performance,turbines continue to grow in size.The average rated(nameplate)capacity of newly installed wind turbines in the United States in 2022 was 3.2 MW,up 7%from the previo

53、us year and 350%since 19981999.The average rotor diameter of newly installed turbines was 131.6 meters,a 3%increase over 2021 and 173%over 19981999,while the average hub height was 98.1 meters,up 4%from 2021 and 73%since 19981999.Turbines originally designed for lower wind speed sites dominate the m

54、arket,but the trend towards lower specific power has reversed in recent years.With growth in swept rotor area outpacing growth in nameplate capacity,there has been a decline in the average“specific power”4(in W/m2),from 393 W/m2 among projects installed in 19981999 to 233 W/m2 among projects install

55、ed in 2022though specific power has modestly increased over the last three years.Turbines with low specific power were originally designed for lower wind speed sites but are now being used at many sites as the most attractive technology.Wind turbines were deployed in higher wind-speed sites in 2022

56、than in recent years.Wind turbines installed in 2022 were located in sites with an average estimated long-term wind speed of 8.3 meters per second at a height of 100 meters above the groundthe highest site-average wind speed since 2014.Federal Aviation Administration(FAA)and industry data on project

57、s that are either under construction or in development suggest that the sites likely to be built out over the next few years will,on average,have lower average wind speeds.Increasing hub heights will help to partially offset this trend,however,enabling turbines to access higher wind speeds than othe

58、rwise possible with shorter towers.Low-specific-power turbines are deployed on a widespread basis;taller towers are seeing increased use in a wider variety of sites.Low specific power turbines continue to be deployed in all regions,and at both lower and higher wind speed sites.The tallest towers(i.e

59、.,those above 100 meters)are found in greater relative frequency in the upper Midwest and Northeastern regions.Wind projects planned for the near future are poised to continue the trend of ever-taller turbines.The average“tip height”(from ground to blade tip extended directly overhead)among projects

60、 that came online in 2022 is 164 meters.FAA data suggest that future projects will deploy even taller turbines.Among“proposed”turbines in the FAA permitting process,the average tip height reaches 195 meters.In 2022,thirteen wind projects were partially repowered,most of which now feature significant

61、ly larger rotors and lower specific power ratings.Partially repowered projects in 2022 totaled 1.7 GW prior to repowering(1.8 GW after),a slight increase from the 1.6 GW of projects partially repowered in 2021.Of the changes made to the turbines,larger rotors dominated,reducing specific power from 3

62、00 to 4 A wind turbines specific power is the ratio of its nameplate capacity rating to its rotor-swept area.All else equal,a decline in specific power should lead to an increase in capacity factor.Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition x 220 W/m2.The primary motivations for partial repowering h

63、ave been to re-qualify for the PTC,while at the same time increasing energy production and extending the useful life of the projects.Performance Trends The average capacity factor in 2022 was 36%on a fleet-wide basis and 37%among wind plants built in 2021.The average 2022 capacity factor among proje

64、cts built from 2013 to 2021 was 40%,compared to an average of 31%among all projects built from 2004 to 2012,and 23%among all projects built from 1998 to 2003.This has pushed the cumulative fleet-wide capacity factor higher over time,to 36%in 2022.The average 2022 capacity factor for projects built i

65、n 2021 was 37%,somewhat lower than for projects built from 2014 to 2020.State and regional variations in capacity factors reflect the strength of the wind resource;capacity factors are highest in the central part of the country.Based on projects built from 2017 to 2021,average capacity factors in 20

66、22 were highest in central states and lower closer to the coasts.Not surprisingly,the relative state and regional capacity factors are roughly consistent with the relative quality of the wind resource in each region.Turbine design and site characteristics influence performance,with declining specifi

67、c power leading to sizable increases in capacity factor over the long term.The decline in specific power over the last two decades has been a major contributor to higher capacity factors,but has been offset in part by a tendency toward building projects at sites with lower annual average wind speeds

68、.As a result,average capacity factors have been relatively stable among projects built over the last nine years,with some evidence of modest declines among post-2018 vintage projects as specific power has drifted upwards in the most recent several years and site quality has decreased somewhat.Wind p

69、ower curtailment in 2022 across seven regions averaged 5.3%,up from a low of 2.1%in 2016.Across all ISOs,wind energy curtailment in 2022 stood at 5.3%generally rising over the last six years.This average masks variation across regions and projects:SPP(9.2%),ERCOT(4.7%),MISO(4.4%),and NYISO(3.2%)expe

70、rienced the highest rates of wind curtailment in 2022,while the other three ISOs were each at less than 2%.2022 was an above-average wind resource year across most of the country.The strength of the wind resource varies from year to year;moreover,the degree of inter-annual variation differs from sit

71、e to site(and,hence,also region to region).This temporal and spatial variation impacts project performance from year to year.In 2022,the national wind index stood at 1.06,its highest level since 2014,as most regions experienced an above-average wind year(the non-ISO West excepted).Wind project perfo

72、rmance degradation also explains why older projects did not perform as well in 2022.Capacity factor data suggest performance decline with project age,though perhaps mostly once projects age beyond 10 years.The apparent decline in capacity factors as projects progress into their second decade partial

73、ly explains why older projectse.g.,those built from 1998 to 2003did not perform as well as newer projects in 2022.Cost Trends Wind turbine prices continued to increase in 2022,reaching roughly$1,000/kW.Wind turbine prices declined by 50%between 2008 and 2020.However,recent supply chain pressures and

74、 elevated commodity prices have led to increased turbine prices.Data indicate recent average pricing in the range of$900/kW to$1,200/kW5,a level roughly similar to that last seen in 2017 and 2018 and up from a range of$800-$1,000/kW for 20192021.Surprisingly,average installed project costs among our

75、 small sample of 2022 projects did not follow turbine prices higher.After four years of relatively stable costs of$1600/kW from 2018 5 All cost figures presented in the report are denominated in real 2022 dollars.Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition xi through2021,the surprising drop in the ca

76、pacity-weighted average installed cost in 2022to$1,370/kWis partly attributable to the outsized influence of a single large project in our relatively small 2022 plant sample and to the concentration of wind deployment in 2022 in the low-cost regions of SPP and ERCOT.The 2022 capacity-weighted averag

77、e may change as more data become available over time.Recent installed costs differ by region.The lowest-cost projects in recent years have been in ERCOT(averaging$1360/kW)and SPP($1470/kW),while MISO projects have averaged$1730/kW.Again,sample size in 2022(and,to a lesser extent,in 2021)is abnormall

78、y low,and these averages may change as more data become available.Installed costs(per megawatt)generally decline with project size;are lowest for projects over 200 MW.Installed costs exhibit economies of scale,with costs declining as project capacity increases.Operations and maintenance costs varied

79、 by project age and commercial operations date.Despite limited data,projects installed over the past 16 years have,on average,incurred lower operations and maintenance(O&M)costs than older projects.The data also suggest that O&M costs tend to increase as projects age,at least for the older projects

80、in the sample.Power Sales Price and Levelized Cost Trends Wind power purchase agreement prices have been drifting higher since about 2018,with a recent range from below$20/MWh to more than$40/MWh.The combination of declining capital and operating costs and improved performance drove wind PPA prices

81、to all-time lows through 2018,though prices have since stabilized and then increasedin part due to supply-chain and other inflationary pressures.Though our sample size in the last year or two is relatively small,recent pricing appears to be around$20/MWh in the Central region of the country,a bit hi

82、gher in the West(ranging from$20/MWh to$40/MWh),and higher still in the East($50/MWh).LevelTen Energys PPA price indices confirm rising PPA prices and regional variation.In contrast to the PPAs summarized above,which principally involve utility purchasers,LevelTen Energy provides an index of PPA off

83、ers made to large,end-use customers.These data also show that prices have risen over the last couple of years and vary by ISO.Among regions reporting data,CAISO features the highest pricing($60/MWh in the third quarter of 2022 once converted to levelized 2022 dollar terms);the lowest prices are foun

84、d in SPP and ERCOT($33/MWh in 2022 dollars).In real dollar terms,LevelTens reported price trends since 2018 are similar to the real-dollar denominated PPA trends described in the prior section.Among a relatively small sample of projects built in 2022,the(unsubsidized)average levelized cost of wind e

85、nergy has fallen to around$32/MWh.Trends in the levelized cost of energy(LCOE)follow PPA trends,at least over the long term.Winds LCOE decreased from 1998 to 2005,rose through 2009-2011,declined through 2018,but has remained steady over the last several years.The national average LCOE among a small

86、sample of projects built in 2022excluding the PTCwas$32/MWh.This average is impacted by the concentration of projects installed in 2022 in the windy,low-cost regions of ERCOT and SPP.As more data become available,the average LCOE among 2022(and 2021)wind plants could be revised.Levelized costs vary

87、by region,with the lowest costs in SPP and ERCOT.The lowest average LCOEs for projects built in 2021 and 2022only considering regions with at least two plants in the sampleare found in SPP and ERCOT(both$33/MWh on average),with PJM averaging the highest at$46/MWh.Cost and Value Comparisons Despite r

88、elatively low PPA prices,wind faces competition from solar and gas.The once-wide gap between wind and solar PPA prices has narrowed,as solar prices have fallen more rapidly than wind Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition xii prices over the last decade.With the support of federal tax incentives

89、,both wind and solar PPA prices are on par with or below the projected cost of burning natural gas in gas-fired combined cycle units.The grid-system market value of wind surged in 2022 across many regions and was often higher than recent wind PPA prices.Following the sharp drop in wholesale electric

90、ity prices(and,hence,wind energy market value)in 2009,average wind PPA prices tended to exceed the wholesale market value of wind through 2012.Continued declines in wind PPA prices brought those prices back in line with the market value of wind in 2013,and wind has generally remained competitive in

91、subsequent years.In 2022,wind energy value remained at elevated levels after having rebounded in 2021 from the low associated with the pandemic.The national average market value of wind in 2022 was$32/MWh.With lower natural gas prices so far in 2023,winds average market value may decline this year.T

92、he grid-system market value of wind in 2022 varied strongly by project location,from an average of$18/MWh in SPP to$83/MWh in ISO-NE.Regionally,wind market value in 2022 was lowest in SPP(average of$18/MWh)and highest in ISO-NE and CAISO($83/MWh and$76/MWh).The market value across all wind projects

93、located in ISOs spanned$12/MWh to$77/MWh in 2022(10th90th percentile range).Within a region,transmission congestion can noticeably reduce the grid value of wind plants.The grid-system market value of wind tends to decline with wind penetration,impacted by generation profile,transmission congestion,a

94、nd curtailment.The regions with the highest wind penetrations(SPP at 38%,ERCOT at 25%,and MISO at 14%)have generally experienced the largest reduction in winds value relative to average wholesale prices.In 2022,winds value was roughly 40%,50%,50%,and 60%,lower than average wholesale prices in NYISO,

95、MISO,ERCOT,and SPP,respectively;but was only roughly 10%lower in ISO-NE and 20%lower in CAISO and PJM.These value reductions were primarily caused by a combination of transmission congestion and hourly wind generation that was negatively correlated with wholesale prices.Curtailment had only a minima

96、l impact.The health and climate benefits of wind are larger than its grid-system value,and the combination of all three far exceeds the levelized cost of wind.Wind reduces emissions of carbon dioxide,nitrogen oxides,and sulfur dioxide,providing public health and climate benefits.Nationally and consi

97、dering all wind plants,these health and climate benefits can be quantified in monetary terms,averaging$135 per MWh of wind in 2022(based on updated methods and damage assumptionssee the full report and Appendix).These benefits were largest in the Central($200/MWh),Midwest($133/MWh),Texas($111/MWh),a

98、nd Western($109/MWh)regions,and were lowest in New York($58/MWh),New England($83/MWh),and the Mid-Atlantic($89/MWh).Combined,the national average climate,health,and grid-system value sums to five times the average LCOE of plants built in 2022.Specifically,climate,health,and grid value averaged$99/MW

99、h,$37/MWh,and$32/MWh,respectively,compared to an average LCOE of$32/MWh.Future Outlook Energy analysts project growing wind deployment,spurred by incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act.Expected capacity additions range from 7.1 GW to 12 GW in 2023.Expected additions then increase rapidly,supporte

100、d by expanded incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act as well as anticipated growth in offshore wind.By 2027,expected additions range from 18.4 GW to 22.7 GW.The influence of the IRAmost importantly,its long-term extension of the PTC along with opportunities for wind plants to earn bonus credits i

101、f meeting domestic content requirements and/or located in an energy communitydominates analyst forecasts.For example,the average deployment forecast for 2026 is 18 GW,compared to 11 GW one year ago,pre-IRA.But headwinds remain:inflation,higher interest rates,limited transmission infrastructure,inter

102、connection costs and timeframes,siting and permitting challenges,and competition from solar may dampen growth,as may any continuing supply chain pressures.Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition xiii Longer term,the prospects for wind energy will be influenced by the Inflation Reduction Act and b

103、y the sectors ability to continue to improve its economic position.The prospects for wind energy in the longer term will be influenced by the implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act,which not only provides extensions and expansions of deployment-oriented tax credits but also new incentives for

104、 the buildout of domestic supply chains.The speed with which supply chain constraints are addressed will impact deployment volumes.Changing macroeconomic conditions,corporate demand for clean energy,and state-level policies will also continue to impact wind growth,as will the buildout of transmissio

105、n infrastructure,resolution of siting,permitting and interconnection constraints,and the future uncertain cost of natural gas.Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition xiv Table of Contents Executive Summary.vii 1 Introduction.1 2 Installation Trends.4 3 Industry Trends.16 4 Technology Trends.27 5

106、Performance Trends.36 6 Cost Trends.43 7 Power Sales Price and Levelized Cost Trends.49 8 Cost and Value Comparisons.55 9 Future Outlook.66 References.68 Appendix:Sources of Data Presented in this Report.71 Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition xv List of Figures Figure 1.Regional boundaries ov

107、erlaid on a map of average annual wind speed at 100 meters.2 Figure 2.Annual and cumulative growth in U.S.wind power capacity.4 Figure 3.Relative contribution of generation types and storage to U.S.annual capacity additions.5 Figure 4.Generation and storage capacity additions by region over last ten

108、 years.6 Figure 5.Wind electricity share in subset of top global wind markets.7 Figure 6.Location of wind power development in the United States.8 Figure 7.Wind(left panel)and combined wind&solar(right panel)generation as a proportion of load by independent system operator regions.10 Figure 8.Locati

109、on and capacity of hybrid wind plants in the United States.11 Figure 9.Design characteristics of hybrid power plants operating in the United States,for a subset of configurations.11 Figure 10.Generation capacity in interconnection queues from 2014 to 2022,by resource type.12 Figure 11.Wind power cap

110、acity in interconnection queues at end of 2022,by region.13 Figure 12.Generation capacity in interconnection queues,including hybrid power plants.14 Figure 13.Hybrid wind power plants in interconnection queues at the end of 2022.15 Figure 14.Annual U.S.market share of wind turbine manufacturers by M

111、W,20052022.16 Figure 15.Location of turbine and component manufacturing facilities.17 Figure 16.Domestic wind manufacturing capability vs.U.S.wind power capacity installations.18 Figure 17.Turbine OEM global profitability.19 Figure 18.Imports of wind-related equipment that can be tracked with trade

112、codes.21 Figure 19.Summary map of tracked wind-specific imports in 2022:top-10 countries of origin and states of entry.22 Figure 20.Origins of U.S.imports of selected wind turbine equipment in 2022.23 Figure 21.Approximate domestic content of major components in 2022.24 Figure 22.Cumulative and 2022

113、 wind power capacity categorized by owner type.25 Figure 23.Cumulative and 2022 wind power capacity categorized by power offtake arrangement 26 Figure 24.Average turbine nameplate capacity,hub height,and rotor diameter for land-based wind projects.27 Figure 25.Trends in turbine nameplate capacity,hu

114、b height,and rotor diameter.28 Figure 26.Trends in wind turbine specific power.29 Figure 27.Wind resource quality by year of installation at 100 meters and at turbine hub height.30 Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition xvi Figure 28:Location of low specific power turbine installations:all U.S.w

115、ind plants.31 Figure 29:Location of tall tower turbine installations:all U.S.wind plants.32 Figure 30.Total turbine heights proposed in FAA applications,by development status.33 Figure 31.Total turbine heights proposed in FAA applications,by location.33 Figure 32.Annual amount of partially repowered

116、 wind power capacity and number of turbines.34 Figure 33.Change in average physical specifications of all turbines that were partially repowered in 2022.35 Figure 34.Calendar year 2022 capacity factors by commercial operation date.37 Figure 35.Average wind capacity factor in calendar year 2022 by st

117、ate.38 Figure 36.2022 capacity factors and various drivers by commercial operation date.38 Figure 37.Calendar year 2022 capacity factors by wind resource quality and specific power:20142021 projects.39 Figure 38.Wind curtailment and penetration rates by ISO.40 Figure 39.Inter-annual variability in t

118、he wind resource by region and nationally.41 Figure 40.Changes in project-level capacity factors as projects age.42 Figure 41.Reported wind turbine transaction prices over time.43 Figure 42.Installed wind power project costs over time.44 Figure 43.Installed cost of 2021 and 2022 wind power projects

119、by region.45 Figure 44.Installed wind power project costs by project size:2021 and 2022 projects.46 Figure 45.Average O&M costs for available data years from 2000 to 2022,by commercial operation date.47 Figure 46.Median annual O&M costs by project age and commercial operation date.48 Figure 47.Level

120、ized wind PPA prices by PPA execution date and region(full sample).50 Figure 48.Generation-weighted average levelized wind PPA prices by PPA execution date and region.51 Figure 49.LevelTen Energy wind PPA price index by quarter of offer.52 Figure 50.Estimated levelized cost of wind energy by commerc

121、ial operation date.53 Figure 51.Estimated levelized cost of wind energy,by region.53 Figure 52.Levelized wind and solar PPA prices and levelized gas price projections.55 Figure 53.Wind PPA prices and natural gas fuel cost projections by calendar year over time.56 Figure 54.Regional wholesale market

122、value of wind and average levelized long-term wind PPA prices over time.58 Figure 55.Regional wholesale market value of wind in 2022,by region.59 Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition xvii Figure 56.Project-level wholesale market value of wind in 2022.60 Figure 57.Trends in wind value factor as

123、 wind penetrations increase.61 Figure 58.Impact of transmission congestion,output profile,and curtailment on wind energy market value in 2022.62 Figure 59.Marginal health and climate benefits from all wind generation by region in 2022.63 Figure 60.Marginal health,climate,and grid-value benefits from

124、 new wind plants versus LCOE in 2022.64 Figure 61.Wind power capacity additions:historical installations and projected growth.66 List of Tables Table 1.International Rankings of Total Wind Power Capacity.7 Table 2.U.S.Wind Power Rankings:The Top 20 States.9 Table A1.Harmonized Tariff Schedule(HTS)Co

125、des and Categories Used in Wind Import Analysis.72 1 1 Introduction Wind power additions in the United States totaled 8.5 gigawatts(GW)of capacity in 2022.Wind power growth has historically been supported by the industrys primary federal incentivethe production tax credit(PTC)as well as myriad state

126、-level policies.Long-term improvements in the cost and performance of wind power technologies have also been key drivers for wind additions,yielding low-priced wind energy for utility,corporate,and other power purchasers.Nonetheless,2022 was a relatively slow year in terms of new wind power deployme

127、ntthe lowest since 2018due in part to ongoing supply chain pressures,increased interest rates,and interconnection and siting challenges,but also the reduction in the value of the PTC that was in place up until the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)in August 2022.Passage of IRA promises new

128、market dynamics for wind power deployment and supply chain investments in the years ahead(U.S.DOE 2023a).IRA contains a long-term extension of the PTC at full value(assuming that new wage and apprenticeship standards are met)along with opportunities for wind plants to earn two 10 percent bonus credi

129、ts that add to the PTC for meeting domestic content requirements and for being located in energy communities.6 Among many other provisions,IRA also includes new production-based and investment-based tax credits to support the build-out of domestic clean energy manufacturing.Though it is too early to

130、 see the full impacts of IRA in historical data,IRA has already impacted analyst forecasts for future wind power capacity additions and wind industry supply-chain announcements.This annual reportnow in its seventeenth yearprovides an overview of trends in the U.S.wind power market,with a particular

131、focus on the year 2022.The report begins(Chapter 2)with an overview of installation-related trends:U.S.wind power capacity growth;how that growth compares to other countries and generation sources;the amount and percentage of wind energy in individual U.S.states;hybrid projects that couple wind with

132、 storage and other sources of generation;and the quantity of proposed wind power capacity in interconnection queues in the United States.In Chapter 3,the report covers an array of wind industry trends:developments in turbine manufacturer market share;manufacturing and supply-chain developments;wind

133、turbine and component imports into the United States;project financing developments;and trends among wind power project owners and power purchasers.Chapter 4 summarizes wind turbine technology trends:turbine capacity,hub height,rotor diameter,and specific power,as well as changes in site-average win

134、d speed and recent repowering activity.Chapter 5 discusses wind plant performance.Chapter 6 discusses the cost and pricing of U.S.wind energy.In doing so,it describes trends in capacity factors,wind turbine prices,installed project costs,and operations and maintenance(O&M)expenses.Chapter 7 reports

135、on levelized costs,calculated based on the input parameters from earlier chapters.The report also reviews the prices paid for wind power through power purchase agreements(PPAs)and how those prices compare to the value of wind generation in wholesale energy markets,forecasts of future natural gas pri

136、ces,and sales prices for solar power.6 For more on energy communities,see:https:/energycommunities.gov/energy-community-tax-credit-bonus/.For additional details on the domestic content bonus and other tax provisions,see:https:/www.irs.gov/inflation-reduction-act-of-2022.Land-Based Wind Market Report

137、:2023 Edition 2 Chapter 8 assesses the levelized cost of wind energy relative to its societal value,defined somewhat narrowly here to include the grid-system value of wind along with its health and climate benefits.The report concludes(Chapter 9)with a preview of possible near-term market developmen

138、ts based on the findings of other analysts.Many of these trends vary by state or region,depending in part on the strength of the local wind resource.To that end,Figure 1 superimposes the boundaries of nine regions,seven of which align with organized wholesale power markets(i.e.,independent system op

139、erators),7 on a map of average annual U.S.wind speed at 100 meters above the ground.These nine regions will be referenced on many occasions throughout this report.Sources:AWS Truepower,National Renewable Energy Laboratory(NREL)Figure 1.Regional boundaries overlaid on a map of average annual wind spe

140、ed at 100 meters This edition of the annual report updates data presented in previous editions while highlighting recent trends and new developments.The report concentrates on larger,utility-scale wind turbines,defined here as individual turbines that exceed 100 kW in size.8 The U.S.wind power secto

141、r is multifaceted,and includes smaller,customer-sited wind turbines used to power residences,farms,and businesses.Further information on distributed wind power,which includes smaller wind turbines as well as the use of larger turbines in distributed applications,is available through a separate annua

142、l report funded by the U.S.Department of Energy(DOE)the Distributed Wind Market Report.In Chapters 2,3,and 9where it is sometimes difficult to 7 The seven independent system operators(ISOs)include the Southwest Power Pool(SPP),Electric Reliability Council of Texas(ERCOT),Midcontinent Independent Sys

143、tem Operator(MISO),California Independent System Operator(CAISO),ISO New England(ISO-NE),PJM Interconnection(PJM),and New York Independent System Operator(NYISO).8 This 100-kW threshold between“smaller”and“larger”wind turbines is applied starting with 2011 projects to better match the American Clean

144、 Power Associations historical methodology,and is also justified by the fact that the U.S.tax code makes a similar distinction.In years prior to 2011,different cut-offs are used to better match ACPs reported capacity numbers and to ensure that older utility-scale wind power projects in California ar

145、e not excluded from the sample.Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 3 separate offshore and land-based windthis report covers land-based and offshore wind,in combination.Other chapters exclusively focus on land-based wind.A companion study funded by DOE that focuses exclusively on offshore win

146、d power is also availablethe Offshore Wind Market Report.Much of the data included in this report were compiled by DOEs Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory(Berkeley Lab)from a variety of sources,including the U.S.Energy Information Administration(EIA),the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission(FERC)

147、,and the American Clean Power Association(ACPalong with its predecessor,the American Wind Energy Association).The Appendix provides a summary of the many data sources.In some cases,the data shown represent only a sample of actual wind power projects installed in the United States;furthermore,the dat

148、a vary in quality.Emphasis should therefore be placed on overall trends,rather than on individual data points.Finally,each section of this report primarily focuses on historical and recent data.With some limited exceptionsincluding the last section of the reportthe report does not seek to forecast w

149、ind energy trends.Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 4 2 Installation Trends The U.S.added 8.5 GW of wind power capacity in 2022,totaling$12 billion of investment U.S.wind capacity additions totaled 8.5 GW in 2022,bringing cumulative wind capacity to more than 144 GW at the end of the year(F

150、igure 2).9 This growth represented nearly$12 billion of investment in new wind power plants in 2022,for a cumulative investment of more than$300 billion since the beginning of the 1980s.10,11 Nearly 77%of the new wind capacity installed in 2022 is located in ERCOT(39%)and SPP(37%),with the remainder

151、 mostly in MISO and the non-ISO West(each with 11%).In addition to the newly installed capacity reported above,1.7 GW of existing wind plants were“partially repowered”in 2022(the final,repowered capacity of these plants is 1.8 GW).12 Partial repowering,in which major components of turbines are repla

152、ced(most often resulting in increased rotor diameters and upgrades to major nacelle components),provides access to favorable tax incentives,increases energy production with more-advanced turbine technology,and extends project life.See Chapter 4 for more details on partial repowering.Source:ACP Figur

153、e 2.Annual and cumulative growth in U.S.wind power capacity These figures depict a relatively slow year in terms of new wind power deployment in 2022a steep decline from the high in 2020 and the lowest since 2018.This downward trend was driven in part by the step-down in 9 The 144.2 GW of capacity i

154、ncludes the 30 MW Block Island offshore wind plant and the 12 MW Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind pilot project.When reporting annual capacity additions,this report focuses on gross additions,and does not consider partial repowering.The net increase in capacity each year can be somewhat lower,reflecti

155、ng turbine decommissioning,or higher,reflecting partial repowering that increases turbine capacity.Full repowering,on the other hand,is considered a new project and so is included in annual additions.Cumulative capacity(Total in Figure 2)includes both decommissioning and repowering.10 All cost and p

156、rice data are reported in real 2022 dollars.11 These investment figures are based on an extrapolation of the average project-level capital costs reported later in this report and do not include investments in manufacturing facilities,research and development expenditures,or O&M costs;nor do they inc

157、lude investments to partially repowered plants.12 Any change in capacity from partial repowering is included in the cumulative data but not the annual data reported in Figure 2.04080120160051015201998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022 Noncontiguous Southeast(non-ISO)ISO-NE NYISO CAISO

158、PJM West(non-ISO)MISO SPP ERCOTCumulative Total Capacity(GW)Annual Regional Capacity(GW)Cumulative TotalLand-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 5 the federal production tax credit prior to the passage of the IRA,and echoed similar boom/bust cycles associated with previous PTC expiration dates tha

159、t can be seen in Figure 2 in 2002,2010,and 2013.The industry also contended with continued headwinds in 2022,related to supply chain pressures,interconnection backlogs,limited transmission infrastructure,siting and permitting challenges,and competition with solar.Pushing in the other direction and s

160、upporting deployment was the continued availability of the PTC(even if at a reduced level),state renewables portfolio standards(RPS),and corporate demand for renewable energy.Meanwhile,the ability of partially repowered wind projects to access the PTC has been the primary motivator for the growth in

161、 partial repowering in recent years.Long-term improvements in the cost and performance of wind power technologies have also been key drivers for wind additions,yielding low-priced wind energy for utility,corporate,and other power purchasers even as supply chain constraints and increased commodity co

162、sts and interest rates have pushed recent costs higher.Wind power represented the second largest source of U.S.electric-power capacity additions in 2022,at 22%,behind solars 49%Wind power again contributed a sizable share of total generation and storage capacity additions.In 2022,it constituted 22%o

163、f all U.S.generation and storage capacity additions,second only to solar power at 49%(Figure 3).13 Natural gas and other non-renewable capacity additions were roughly the same as the year prior,which was their lowest level in more than 20 years.Sources:Hitachi,ACP,EIA,Berkeley Lab Figure 3.Relative

164、contribution of generation types and storage to U.S.annual capacity additions Over the last decade,wind power represented 27%of total U.S.generation and storage capacity additions,and an even larger fraction of new capacity in SPP(85%),ERCOT(49%),MISO(47%),and the non-ISO West(30%)(Figure 4;see Figu

165、re 1 for regional definitions).Wind powers contribution to capacity growth over the last decade is smaller in PJM(9%),NYISO(7%),ISO-NE(7%),CAISO(4%),and the Southeast(1%).13 Data presented here are based on gross capacity additions,not considering retirements or partial repowering.For solar,both uti

166、lity-scale and distributed applications are included.Data include only the 50 U.S.states,not U.S.territories.6%24%38%26%24%20%32%42%31%22%010203040502013201420152016201720182019202020212022Annual Capacity Additions(GW)Other non-RECoalGasOther REStorageSolarWindLand-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edit

167、ion 6*U.S.Total also includes AK and HI,in addition to the regions listed Sources:Hitachi,ACP,EIA,Berkeley Lab Figure 4.Generation and storage capacity additions by region over last ten years Globally,the United States again ranked second in annual wind capacity but remained well behind the market l

168、eaders in wind energy penetration Global wind additions totaled over 77 GW in 2022(including both land-based and offshore wind).With its 8.5 GW representing 11%of new global installed capacity in 2022,the United States continued to maintain its second-place position behind China(Table 1).Cumulative

169、global wind capacity totaled 906 GW at the end of the year(GWEC 2023),14 with the United States accounting for 16%also a distant second to China.14 Yearly and cumulative installed wind power capacity in the United States are from the present report,while global wind power capacity comes from GWEC(20

170、23)but are updated,where necessary,with the U.S.data presented here.85%49%47%30%9%7%7%4%1%27%0%20%40%60%80%100%SPPERCOTMISOWest(non-ISO)PJMNYISOISO-NECAISO Southeast(non-ISO)U.S.TotalPercent of Capacity Additions:20132022Other non-RECoalGasOther REStorageSolarWindLand-Based Wind Market Report:2023 E

171、dition 7 Table 1.International Rankings of Total Wind Power Capacity Sources:GWEC(2023);ACP for U.S.Many countries have achieved higher wind-electricity market shares(i.e.,wind generation as a percentage of total generation)than the United States.Figure 5 presents data on a subset of countries.The w

172、ind electricity share was highest in Denmark,at 57%,and was over 20%in seven other countries.In the United States,wind supplied about 10%of total electricity generation in 2022.Source:ACP Figure 5.Wind electricity share in subset of top global wind markets China37.6China365United States8.5United Sta

173、tes144Brazil4.1Germany67Germany2.7India42Sweden2.4Spain30Finland2.4United Kingdom28France2.1Brazil26India1.8France21United Kingdom1.7Canada 15Spain1.7Sweden15Rest of World12.4Rest of World153TOTAL77.5TOTAL906Annual CapacityCumulative Capacity(2022,GW)(end of 2022,GW)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%DenmarkIrelan

174、dLithuaniaPortugalU.K.GermanyGreeceSpainSwedenNetherlandsFinlandCroatiaEURomaniaBelgiumBrazilAustraliaPolandTurkeyEstoniaAustriaNorwayUnited StatesChinaFranceItalyMexicoCanadaIndiaWind as Percentage of Total Generation in 2022Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 8 Texas once again installed th

175、e most wind capacity of any state in 2022(4,028 MW),followed by Oklahoma(1,607 MW);twelve states exceeded 20%wind energy penetration New utility-scale wind turbines were installed in 14 states in 2022.Texas once again installed the most new capacity of any state,adding 4,028 MW.As shown in Figure 6

176、and in Table 2,other leading statesin terms of new capacity added in 2022included Oklahoma(1,607 MW),Nebraska(602 MW),and Iowa(484 MW).On a cumulative basis,Texas remained the clear leader,with more than 40 GW installed at the end of 2022more than three times as much as the next-highest state(Iowa).

177、In fact,Texas has more wind capacity than all but four countries(Table 1).States distantly following Texas in cumulative installed capacity include Iowa and Oklahoma(both 12 GW),Kansas(8 GW),and Illinois(7 GW).Thirty-five states,plus Puerto Rico,had more than 100 MW of wind capacity at the end of 20

178、22,with 23 of these above 1 GW,19 above 2 GW,and 17 above 3 GW.Sources:ACP,Berkeley Lab Figure 6.Location of wind power development in the United States Some states have reached high wind electricity shares.The right half of Table 2 lists the top 20 states based on actual wind electricity generation

179、 in 2022 divided by total in-state electricity generation and by in-state electricity sales in 2022.Electric transmission networks enable most states to both import and export power in real time,and states do so in varying amounts.Denominating in-state wind generation as both a proportion of in-stat

180、e generation and as a proportion of in-state sales is relevant,but both should be viewed with some caution given varying amounts of imports and exports.As a fraction of in-state generation,Iowa leads the list,with 62%of electricity generated in the state coming from wind,followed by South Dakota,Kan

181、sas,Oklahoma,and North Dakota.As a fraction of in-state sales,Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 9 Iowa once again leads,with nearly 82%of the electricity sold in the state being met by wind,followed by South Dakota(77%),Kansas,North Dakota,and Wyoming(all three over 60%),and then Oklahoma a

182、nd New Mexico(both over 50%).Twelve states have achieved wind penetration levels of 20%or higher when expressed as a percentage of generation(thirteen exceed 20%as a percentage of sales).Table 2.U.S.Wind Power Rankings:The Top 20 States Note:Based on 2022 wind and total generation and retail sales b

183、y state from EIAs Electric Power Monthly(2023b).Sources:ACP,EIA Given the ability to trade power across state boundaries,wind electricity shares within entire multi-state markets operated by the major independent system operators(ISOs)are also relevant.In 2022,wind-electricity market shares(expresse

184、d as a percentage of customer load inclusive of behind-the-meter solar generation)were 37.9%in SPP,24.8%in ERCOT,14.5%in MISO,8.7%in CAISO,4.0%in PJM,3.2%in ISO-NE,and 3.1%in NYISO(Figure 7).As also shown in the figure,combined solar and wind shares exceeds these levels,especially in CAISO,ISO-NE,an

185、d ERCOT.Texas4,028Texas40,151Iowa62.4%Iowa81.9%Oklahoma1,607Iowa12,783South Dakota54.8%South Dakota76.9%Nebraska602Oklahoma12,222Kansas47.0%Kansas69.9%Iowa484Kansas8,240Oklahoma43.5%North Dakota65.5%Montana366Illinois7,129North Dakota36.7%Wyoming60.4%South Dakota304California6,118New Mexico34.9%Okla

186、homa54.0%Minnesota245Colorado5,194Nebraska31.0%New Mexico52.6%New Mexico235Minnesota4,749Colorado28.0%Nebraska37.7%Oregon210New Mexico4,327Minnesota23.5%Colorado29.2%Colorado145North Dakota4,302Maine22.8%Montana25.9%Illinois120Oregon4,055Wyoming21.8%Texas25.3%Michigan72Nebraska3,519Texas21.6%Maine23

187、.3%California72Indiana3,468Vermont18.2%Minnesota21.5%Maine20Washington3,407Idaho16.6%Oregon17.1%Michigan3,231Montana14.8%Illinois16.9%South Dakota3,219Oregon14.3%Idaho11.1%Wyoming3,176Illinois12.1%Washington10.1%Missouri2,435Indiana9.9%Indiana9.7%New York2,192Missouri9.4%Missouri9.3%Montana1,487Mich

188、igan7.8%Michigan9.1%Rest of U.S.0Rest of U.S.8,769Rest of U.S.1.7%Rest of U.S.1.5%Total8,511Total144,173Total10.1%Total11.2%Installed Capacity(MW)2022 Wind Generation as a Percentage of:Annual(2022)Cumulative(end of 2022)In-State GenerationIn-State SalesLand-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 10

189、Sources:SPP,ERCOT,MISO,CAISO,PJM,ISO-NE,NYISO Figure 7.Wind(left panel)and combined wind&solar(right panel)generation as a proportion of load by independent system operator regions Hybrid wind plants that pair wind with storage and other resources saw limited growth in 2022,with just one new project

190、 completed Though only one new wind hybrid project was commissioned in 2022,there were 41 hybrid wind power plants in operation at the end of 2022,representing 2.6 GW of wind and 0.8 GW of co-located assets(storage,PV,or fossil-fueled generators).Some of these represent full hybrids where,for exampl

191、e,wind and storage are co-located and the design,configuration,and operation of the constituent technologies are fully integrated.In other cases,plants are co-located,sharing a point of interconnection,but are designed,configured,and operated more independently(e.g.,hybrids that pair wind and gas pl

192、ants).The most common type of wind hybrid project combines wind and storage technology,where 1.4 GW of wind has been paired with 0.2 GW of battery storage across 14 plants.However,no new projects combining just wind and storage were installed in 2022.Other combinations include wind and PV;wind,PV,an

193、d storage;wind and gas;and more(Figure 8).The Wheatridge project in Oregon,the only new 2022 wind hybrid,incorporates wind,PV,and storage technologies.The ERCOT region hosts the largest amount of wind capacity in hybrid plants(0.86 GW),followed by PJM(0.77 GW)and the non-ISO West(0.63 GW).Wind capac

194、ity tends to be larger for wind+storage hybrids than for other hybrid configurations.0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%201220142016201820202022Wind Market Share(%)SPPERCOTMISOCAISOPJMISO-NENYISO0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%201220142016201820202022Wind+Solar Market Share(%)SPPERCOTMISOCAISOPJMISO-NENYISOLand-Base

195、d Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 11 Sources:EIA-860 2022 Early Release,Berkeley Lab Figure 8.Location and capacity of hybrid wind plants in the United States Figure 9 displays design characteristics for a subset of the more-common hybrid plant configurations,including those that do not incorporate

196、wind.Wind+storage hybrids have a 14%storage-to-generator ratio with an average storage duration of just 0.6 hours,suggesting a focus on providing ancillary services and only limited capacity to shift large amounts of energy across time.Fossil+storage hybrids have similar storage-to-generator ratios(

197、16%)but longer battery durations(2.3 hours).PV+storage hybrids have significantly higher average storage-to-generator ratios(49%)and battery durations(3.1 hours).Notes:Not included in the figure are many other hybrid projects with other configurations.Storage ratio defined as total storage capacity

198、divided by total generator capacity for a given project type.Sources:EIA-860 2022 Early Release,Berkeley Lab Figure 9.Design characteristics of hybrid power plants operating in the United States,for a subset of configurations#projectsTotal capacity(MW)Storage ratioDuration(hrs)WindPVFossilStoragePV+

199、Storage2138,193.94,018.449%3.1Wind+Storage141,425.3198.114%0.6Wind+PV+Storage5525.776.068.811%2.0Fossil+Storage266,575.41,042.916%2.3Wind+PV8590.3267.50.0n/an/a02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,000WindPVFossilStorageLand-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 12 The trend to co-locate wind with other ass

200、ets has progressed at a slow pace since 2006,with only one new wind hybrid commencing operation in 2022.In contrast,commercial interest in solar hybrids has expanded rapidly,with 59 new PV+storage projects coming online in 2022.A record-high 300 GW of wind power capacity now exists in transmission i

201、nterconnection queues,but solar and storage are growing at a much more rapid pace One testament to the amount of developer and purchaser interest in wind energy is the amount of wind power capacity working its way through the major transmission interconnection queues across the country.Figure 10 pro

202、vides this information over the last nine years for wind power and other resources aggregated across more than 40 different interconnection queues administered by ISOs and utilities.15 These data should be interpreted with caution:placing a project in the interconnection queue is a necessary step in

203、 project development,but being in the queue does not guarantee that a project will be built.Recent analysis found an overall average completion rate of 21%for projects of all types proposed from 2000 to 2017(Rand et al.2023).Some projects are exploratory in nature,and duplicate projects also complic

204、ate interpretation.Notes:Hybrid storage capacity is estimated using storage:generator ratios from projects that provide separate capacity data;storage capacity in hybrids was not estimated for years prior to 2020;offshore wind was not separately identified prior to 2020.Source:Berkeley Lab review of

205、 interconnection queues Figure 10.Generation capacity in interconnection queues from 2014 to 2022,by resource type Even with this important caveat,the amount of wind capacity in the nations interconnection queues still provides an indication of developer interest.At the end of 2022,there were 300 GW

206、 of wind capacity in the queues reviewed for this reporta marked increase from the 247 GW in the queues the previous year and supported by continued growth in offshore wind in the queues.In 2022,90 GW of new wind capacity entered the queues,11 GW of which were in hybrid configurations and 37 GW of w

207、hich were for offshore wind.Solar additions to interconnection queues far outpaced wind in 2022,with 351 GW added.Storage additions to the 15 The queues surveyed include PJM,MISO,NYISO,ISO-NE,CAISO,ERCOT,SPP,Western Area Power Administration(WAPA),Bonneville Power Administration(BPA),Tennessee Valle

208、y Authority(TVA),and a large number of other individual utilities.To provide a sense of sample size and coverage,the ISOs,RTOs,and utilities whose queues are included here have an aggregated non-coincident(balancing authority)peak demand of over 85%of the U.S.total.The figures in this section only i

209、nclude projects that were active in the queues at the times specified but that had not yet been built;suspended projects are not included.Teal areas are offshoreHatched areas arehybrid projectsLand-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 13 queues have increased much more rapidly than wind in recent y

210、ears as well,both for standalone plants and hybridized with solar or wind.Overall,wind represented 15%of all active capacity in the queues at the end of 2022,compared to 46%for solar,33%for storage,and just 4%for natural gas.The combined capacity of wind and solar now active in the queues(1,250 GW)a

211、pproximately equals the total installed U.S.electric generating capacity in 2022.Concerningly,the subset of proposed plants that work their way through the interconnection process and come online are taking longer to do so:the median wind project reaching commercial operation in 2022 submitted an in

212、terconnection request nearly 6 years prior(Rand et al.2023).16 The total wind capacity in the interconnection queues is spread across the United States,as shown in Figure 11(left image),with the largest amounts in NYISO(22%),the West(non-ISO)(21%),and PJM(16%).Smaller amounts are found in SPP(12%),M

213、ISO(11%),CAISO(6%),ERCOT(6%),ISO-NE(5%),and the Southeast(non-ISO)(1%).Nearly half(48%)of active wind capacity in the queues has requested to come online by the end of 2025,and 15%of wind capacity has a fully executed interconnection agreement.Focusing just on wind power additions to the queues in 2

214、022(Figure 11,right image),NYISO,the West(non-ISO),and MISO experienced especially large annual additions(17 GW each),with NYISOs additions being almost entirely for offshore wind.Across all queues,38%(113 GW)of all wind capacity in the queues at the end of 2022 was offshore,and 41%(37 GW)of the win

215、d added to queues in 2022 was offshore.New offshore wind capacity was added on the East Coast in 2022(NYISO,PJM,ISO-NE),but not the West Coast due to CAISO delaying their next interconnection application window until 2023.Note:Offshore areas reflect the amount of offshore wind in the interconnection

216、 queues of each region.Source:Berkeley Lab review of interconnection queues Figure 11.Wind power capacity in interconnection queues at end of 2022,by region As shown in Figure 12,48%of the solar capacity in interconnection queues at the end of 2022 has been proposed as hybrid plants,whereas only 8%o

217、f the wind capacity is paired with storage or another generation resource.In part this is due to policy designuntil the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act,the investment tax credit for solar could be used for paired storage,whereas the production tax credit regularly used by wind plants had no s

218、uch storage allowance.Of the 24 GW of proposed wind capacity in hybrid configurations,the majority(19 GW)is paired with storage,with the rest primarily paired with solar(1 GW)or both solar and storage(4 GW).16 The U.S.Department of Energy is engaging with interconnection stakeholders via the Interco

219、nnection Innovation e-Xchange.For more,see:https:/www.energy.gov/eere/i2x/interconnection-innovation-e-xchange Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 14 Note:Each bar reflects the listed resource type.A solar+storage hybrid will have its solar capacity in the solar column and its storage capacit

220、y in the storage column*Hybrid storage capacity is estimated using storage:generator ratios from projects that provide separate capacity data.Source:Berkeley Lab review of interconnection queues Figure 12.Generation capacity in interconnection queues,including hybrid power plants As shown in Figure

221、13,commercial interest in wind hybrid plants is highest in California and the West(non-ISO).In fact,45%of the wind in CAISOs queues is proposed as a hybrid,as is 17%of the wind in the West.Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 15 Source:Berkeley Lab review of interconnection queues Figure 13.Hy

222、brid wind power plants in interconnection queues at the end of 2022 Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 16 3 Industry Trends Just four turbine manufacturers,led by GE,supplied all the U.S.utility-scale wind power capacity installed in 2022 Of the 8.5 GW of wind installed in the United States

223、in 2022,GE Wind supplied 58%,followed by Vestas(24%),Nordex(10%)and Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy(SGRE,8%).17 GE and Vestas have dominated the U.S.market for some time,with SGRE and Nordex vying for third(Figure 14).Source:ACP Figure 14.Annual U.S.market share of wind turbine manufacturers by MW,2

224、0052022 The domestic wind industry supply chain began 2022 in decline,but passage of the Inflation Reduction Act has created renewed optimism about supply-chain expansion Figure 15 identifies the many wind turbine component manufacturing,assembly,and other supply chain facilities operating in the Un

225、ited States at the end of 2022.Three of the four major turbine OEMs that serve the U.S.wind industryGE,Vestas,and SGREare represented within this total,each having one or more operating manufacturing facility.Also included in the figure are eleven planned new,re-opened or expanded facilities intende

226、d to serve the land-based wind industry,all announced since passage of the Inflation Reduction Act.In general,Figure 15 highlights the geographic breadth of the supply chain.17 Market share is reported in MW terms and is based on project installations in the year in question.0%20%40%60%80%100%200520

227、072009201120132015201720192021OtherGoldwindAcciona(pre-2016)Nordex(pre-2016)Nordex AccionaGamesa(pre-2017)Siemens(pre-2017)SGREVestasGE WindU.S.Market Share by MWLand-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 17 Source:ACP and Berkeley Lab Figure 15.Location of turbine and component manufacturing facili

228、ties Domestic turbine nacelle assembly18 capability is defined here as the maximum GW capacity of nacelles that can be assembled annually at U.S.plants operating at full utilization.This value grew from less than 1.5 GW in 2006 to more than 13 GW in 2012,fell to roughly 10 GW in 2015,and then rose t

229、o 15 GW in 2018 and has held largely steady at that level since(Figure 16).From 2012 through 2020,domestic blade and tower manufacturing capability was largely stable or growing,in each case increasing from around 7 to 8 GW/year in 2012 to around 10 GW/year in 2020.In the case of towers,domestic cap

230、ability continued to increase,reaching over 11 GW in 2022,supported in part by import tariffs.In 2021,however,domestic blade manufacturing plummeteda decline that continued into 2022,with under 4 GW of blade production capability at the end of the year.Competition from foreign suppliers,growing blad

231、e lengths that would require retooling of manufacturing equipment,and uncertain(pre-IRA)future 18 Nacelle assembly is defined as the process of combining the multitude of components included in a turbine nacelle,such as the gearbox and generator,to produce a complete turbine nacelle unit.Land-Based

232、Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 18 deployment prospects for land-based wind in the United States combined to weaken domestic wind manufacturing capabilities.Figure 16 contrasts this equipment manufacturing capability with past U.S.wind additions as well as near-term forecasts of future new installat

233、ions(see Chapter 9,“Future Outlook”).It demonstrates that domestic manufacturing capability for towers and nacelle assembly remains reasonably well balanced with near-term projected wind additions in the United States,but that blade manufacturing capability has fallen well below near-term wind addit

234、ions as international suppliers outcompete domestic ones.Note that manufacturing facilities do not typically operate at maximum capability;see the next section of the report for estimates of domestic manufacturing content.Sources:ACP,independent analyst projections,Berkeley Lab Figure 16.Domestic wi

235、nd manufacturing capability vs.U.S.wind power capacity installations More generally,fierce competition among manufacturers and,in some cases,technical failures resulting in increased warranty claims,has generally reduced turbine OEM profitability over the last several years.High commodity and transp

236、ortation costs along with COVID-19 restrictions have also limited manufacturer profitability.Figure 17 illustrates the declining(and negative)profit margins of several major international turbine manufacturers in 2022.19 19 Although it is one of the largest turbine suppliers in the U.S.market,GE is

237、not included because it is a multi-national conglomerate that does not report segmented financial data for its wind turbine division.05101520252006200820102012201420162018202020222024e2026eActual wind capacity additionsAverage forecast capacity additionsNacelle manufacturing capacityTower production

238、 capacityBlade production capacityAnnual Capacity(GW)Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 19 Note:EBITDA=Earnings Before Interest,Taxes,Depreciation and Amortization Sources:OEM annual reports and financial statements Figure 17.Turbine OEM global profitability Despite these supply-chain challe

239、nges,wind-related job totals in the United States increased by 4.5%in 2022,to 125,580 full-time workersbenefitting from continued deployment(U.S.DOE 2023b).These jobs include,among others,those in construction(45,088)and manufacturing(23,543).Moreover,while the above storylines are decidedly mixed f

240、or 2022,passage of the Inflation Reduction Act holds promise for addressing recent challenges and supporting supply-chain expansion.The IRA contains,for the first time,production-based tax credits for domestic manufacturing of key wind turbine components,including nacelles,blades,and towers(U.S.DOE

241、2023a).It also extends the PTC for wind power deployment,inclusive of a new 10%bonus on top of the full-value PTC for wind projects that meet domestic content requirements(a separate 10%bonus is available for projects located in energy communities).Consequently,as shown earlier in Figure 15,since IR

242、A passed there have been at least eleven announcements of domestic manufacturing facilities that plan to open,re-open,or expand to serve the land-based wind industry.This includes:Tower facilities in New Mexico(Arcosa,new facility),Colorado(CS Wind,expansion),and South Dakota(Marmen,expansion)Blade

243、facilities in Iowa(TPI Composites and SGRE,re-openings)and Colorado(Vestas,expansion)Gearbox manufacturing in Illinois(Flender Corporation,expansion)Nacelle and turbine component assembly and/or manufacturing in Florida(GE Vernova,expansion),New York(GE Vernova,expansion),Kansas(SGRE,re-opening),and

244、 Colorado(Vestas,expansion)-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022GoldwindVestasGamesa/SGRENordexProfit Margin(EBITDA)Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 20 In total,these eleven planned facilities and expansions anticipate more than

245、3,000 new jobs.Additionally,Keystone Towers began commercial production of its first spiral-welded towers in 2022,before IRA became law,from a new manufacturing facility in Pampa,Texas.Domestic manufacturing content is strong for some wind turbine components,but the U.S.wind industry remains reliant

246、 on imports Despite the breadth of the domestic wind industry supply chain,the U.S.wind sector is reliant on imports of wind equipment.The level of dependence varies by component:some components have a relatively high domestic share,whereas others remain largely imported.These trends are revealed,in

247、 part,by data on wind equipment trade from the U.S.Department of Commerce.20 Figure 18 presents data on the dollar value of estimated imports to the United States of wind-related equipment that can be tracked through trade codes.The figure shows imports of wind-powered generating sets and parts,incl

248、uding nacelles(i.e.,nacelles with blades,nacelles without blades,and,in some cases,other turbine components internal to the nacelle)as well as imports of other select turbine components shipped separately from the generating sets and nacelles.21 The turbine components included in the figure consist

249、only of those that can be tracked through trade codes:towers,generators(as well as generator parts),and blades and hubs.22 20 See the Appendix for further details on data sources and methods used in this section,including the specific trade codes considered.21 Wind turbine components such as blades,

250、towers,and generators are included in the data on wind-powered generating sets and nacelles if shipped in the same transaction.Otherwise,these component imports are reported separately.22 Though all the import estimates in the figure since 2020 are specific to wind equipment,import trends should be

251、viewed with caution because the underlying data from earlier years are based on trade categories that are not all exclusive to wind.Some of these earlier-year estimates therefore required assumptions about the fraction of larger trade categories likely to be represented by wind turbine components.No

252、te also that the trade code for towers is not exclusive to wind,but is believed to be dominated by wind since 2011we assume that 100%of imports from this trade category,since 2011,represent wind equipment.Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 21 Note:Wind-related trade codes and definitions are

253、 not consistent over the full time period.Source:Berkeley Lab analysis of data from USA Trade Online,https:/usatrade.census.gov Figure 18.Imports of wind-related equipment that can be tracked with trade codes The estimated imports of tracked wind-related equipment into the United States increased su

254、bstantially from 2006 to 2008,before falling through 2010,increasing somewhat in 2011 and 2012,and then plummeting in 2013 with the simultaneous drop in U.S.wind installations.From 2014 through 2022,imports of wind-related turbine equipment generally followed U.S.wind installation trends,bouncing ba

255、ck from the low of 2013 and then with a marked decline in 2021 and 2022 as wind plant installations also declined.Interpreting time trends in these data is challenging given changes in annual wind additions from year to year,time lags between equipment import and installation,and fluctuations in win

256、d turbine and equipment pricing.Also,because imports of component parts occur in additional,broad trade categories different from those included in Figure 18,the data presented here understate the aggregate amount of wind equipment imports.Nonetheless,focusing on the subset of trade categories shown

257、 in Figure 18 and normalizing by wind turbine prices and time lags,overall turbine-level import shares are estimated to have increased from roughly 20%in 2015 to over 35%in 2022.This suggests that the U.S.has become more reliant on imports over this period.Figure 19 shows the total value of tracked

258、wind-specific imports to the United States in 2022,by country of origin,as well as states of entry.Major countries from which the United States imports wind equipment include Mexico,India,and Spain,which together account for$1.4 billion in wind-specific exports to the U.S.in 2022.Texas remained the

259、dominant entry point in 2022,with nearly$1.4 billion of wind-specific equipment flowing through it last year,followed distantly by New York,Michigan,Florida,and Ohio.02462006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Imports(Billion 2022$)Other wind-related equip

260、mentWind generators and generator partsWind blades and hubsWind towersWind-powered generating sets and parts,including nacellesLand-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 22 Note:Line widths are proportional to import amount by country.Figure does not intend to depict the destination of these imports

261、,by state.Source:Berkeley Lab analysis of data from USA Trade Online,https:/usatrade.census.gov Figure 19.Summary map of tracked wind-specific imports in 2022:top-10 countries of origin and states of entry Looking behind these data,India,followed by Denmark,Spain,Belgium,and Sweden,were the primary

262、source countries for wind-powered generating sets and parts,including nacelles,in 2022(Figure 20).Tower imports came from a mix of countries near and farSouth Korea,Canada,Mexico,Argentina,and Malaysia.For blades and hubs,Mexico and India accounted for almost 70%of imports,with Spain,China,and Canad

263、a the next largest source countries in 2022.Finally,almost 80%of wind-related generators and generator parts in 2022 came from Vietnam,Germany,and Spain,the rest primarily coming from Serbia and Austria.Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 23 Source:Berkeley Lab analysis of data from USA Trade

264、 Online,https:/usatrade.census.gov Figure 20.Origins of U.S.imports of selected wind turbine equipment in 2022 Figure 21 presents rough estimates of the domestic content for a small subset of the major wind turbine components used in new(and repowered)U.S.wind projects in 2022.As shown,for wind proj

265、ects installed in 2022,over 85%of nacelle assembly and 70%85%of tower manufacturing occurred in the United States.In the case of towers,tariffs on some imports influence the high level of domestic content.The domestic manufacturing content of blades and hubs,on the other hand,has declined precipitou

266、sly in recent years,to just 5%25%in 2022.More broadly,these figures may understate the wind industrys reliance on foreign suppliers,because significant wind-related imports occur under trade categories not captured in this figure.How these trends change after passage of the Inflation Reduction Act r

267、emains to be seen,though supply-chain announcements in recent months suggest a resurgence in domestic wind manufacturing.Wind blades and hubsWind generators and partsWind-powered generating sets and parts,including nacellesTotal 2022 imports:$632 millionTop countries:India(42%)Denmark(18%)Spain(16%)

268、Belgium(11%)Sweden(7%)Wind towersTotal 2022 imports:$146 millionTop countries:Vietnam(44%)Germany(19%)Spain(16%)Serbia(5%)Austria(5%)Total 2022 imports:$1,237 millionTop countries:Mexico(49%)India(20%)Spain(10%)China(6%)Canada(4%)Total 2022 imports:$178 millionTop countries:S.Korea(28%)Canada(23%)Me

269、xico(13%)Argentina(11%)Malaysia(6%)AsiaEuropeNorth AmericaSouth AmericaOtherLand-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 24 Source:Berkeley Lab analysis Figure 21.Approximate domestic content of major components in 2022 Independent power producers own most wind assets built in 2022,extending historica

270、l trends Independent power producers(IPPs)own 7,116 MW or 84%of the 8.5 GW of new wind capacity installed in the United States in 2022(Figure 22,right pie chart).Investor-owned utilities(IOUs)most notably the Public Service Company of Oklahoma(996 MW),but also including Northern States Power Company

271、(326 MW)and DTE Energy(72 MW)own the remaining 1,395 MW(16%).Of the cumulative installed wind power capacity at the end of 2022(Figure 22,left chart),IPPs own 81%and utilities own 18%(17%IOU and 1%publicly-owned utility,or POU),with the remaining 1%falling into the“other”category of projects owned b

272、y neither IPPs nor utilities(e.g.,owned by towns,schools,businesses,farmers,etc.).23 23 Many of the“other”projects,along with some IPP-and POU-owned projects,might also be considered“community wind”projects that are owned by or benefit one or more members of the local community to a greater extent t

273、han typically occurs with a commercial wind project.Note that any changes to ownership or offtake beyond the commercial operation data are not tracked in this or the following section.0%20%40%60%80%100%Blades and HubsWind TowersNacelle AssemblyDomestic Content525%85%7085%Land-Based Wind Market Repor

274、t:2023 Edition 25 Source:Berkeley Lab estimates based on ACP Figure 22.Cumulative and 2022 wind power capacity categorized by owner type For the first time,non-utility buyers entered into more contracts to purchase wind than did utilities in 2022 Whereas the prior section analyzes wind plant ownersh

275、ip,this section focuses on who uses or buys the wind generation from those plants.Electric utilities either own(16%)or buy the electricity from(17%)wind projects that,in total,represent 33%of the new capacity installed last year(with the 33%split between 29%IOU and 5%POUFigure 23,right pie chart).On

276、 a cumulative basis,utilities own(18%)or buy(40%)power from 58%of all wind power capacity installed in the United States(with the 58%split between 41%IOU and 17%POU,with the POU category including community choice aggregators(CCAs).Direct retail purchasers of wind power,including a diverse and growi

277、ng set of corporate and non-corporate offtakers,supported at least 44%of the new wind power capacity installed in the United States in 2022(and 15%of cumulative wind power capacity).Such purchasers historically have spanned a wide range of organizations,from technology companies(e.g.,Microsoft,Googl

278、e),retailers(e.g.,Walmart,Lowes,Gap),finance(e.g.,Wellington Management,JP Morgan Chase),and telecommunication firms(e.g.,AT&T,Verizon,Sprint)to governments(e.g.,Maryland Department of General Services)and universities(e.g.,Boston University).Merchant/quasi-merchant projects accounted for at least 3

279、%of all new 2022 capacity and 19%of cumulative capacity.24 Finally,power marketersdefined here to include commercial intermediaries 24 Merchant/quasi-merchant projects are those whose electricity sales revenue is tied to short-term contracts and/or wholesale spot electricity market prices(with the r

280、esulting price risk commonly hedged over a 10-to 12-year period),rather than being locked in through a long-term PPA.Most of these projects are located within ERCOT,though there are some merchant/quasi-merchant projects within other markets,including PJM,MISO,SPP,and NYISO.Associated hedges are ofte

281、n structured as a“fixed-for-floating”power price swapa purely financial arrangement whereby the wind power project swaps the“floating”revenue stream that it earns from spot power sales for a“fixed”revenue stream based on an agreed-upon strike price with the swap counterparty.Note that any changes to

282、 ownership or offtake beyond the commercial operation data are not tracked here.0%20%40%60%80%100%1998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022%of Cumulative Installed CapacityInvestor-Owned Utility(IOU)Independent Power Producer(IPP)Publicly Owned Utility(POU)OtherIPP:7,116 MWIOU:1,395 MW202

283、2 Capacity byOwner TypeLand-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 26 that purchase power under contract and then resell that power to others25bought at least the remaining 6%of new 2022 wind capacity and 5%of cumulative capacity.We qualify the level of support from these non-utility offtakers as“at

284、least”because it is likely that much of the 1.2 GW of 2022 capacity that has not yet disclosed an offtaker is being sold to corporate buyers,power marketers,or into merchant arrangements,rather than to utilities.Source:Berkeley Lab estimates based on ACP Figure 23.Cumulative and 2022 wind power capa

285、city categorized by power offtake arrangement 25 These intermediaries include the wholesale marketing affiliates of large IOUs,which may buy wind on behalf of their load-serving affiliates.0%20%40%60%80%100%1998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022%of Cumulative Installed CapacityDirect R

286、etailMerchant/Quasi-MerchantPower MarketerUndisclosedPOUIOUIOU:2,443 MWRetail:3,776 MWMerchant:263 MWPower Marketer:481 MWPOU:392 MW2022 Capacity byOfftake TypeUndisclosed:1,155 MWLand-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 27 4 Technology Trends Turbine capacity,rotor diameter,and hub height have al

287、l increased significantly over the long term The average nameplate capacity of newly installed wind turbines in the United States in 2022 was 3.2 MW,7%larger than in 2021 and up 350%since 19981999(Figure 24).26 The average hub height of turbines installed in 2022 was 98.1 meters,4%larger than in 202

288、1 and up 73%since 19981999.The average rotor diameter in 2022 was 131.6 meters,3%larger than in 2021 and up 173%since 19981999.The trends,in turn,impact the project-level capacity factors highlighted later in this report.Sources:ACP,Berkeley Lab Figure 24.Average turbine nameplate capacity,hub heigh

289、t,and rotor diameter for land-based wind projects Figure 25 presents these same trends since 2012,but with additional detail on the relative distribution of turbines with different capacities,hub heights,and rotor diameters.For example,2022 saw an increase in the proportion of turbines installed in

290、the 2.753.5 MW range,while the proportion of turbines at 3.5 MW or larger also increased.The percentage of turbines with hub heights larger than 100 meters increased in 2022,to 43%up from 27%in 2021 and just 2%in 2018.Finally,the steady progression toward larger rotors continued.In 2012,only 1%of tu

291、rbines employed rotors that were 115 meters in diameter or larger,while 98%of newly installed turbines featured such rotors in 2022(and 29%of those were at least 130 meters).26 Figure 24 and a number of the other figures and tables included in this report combine data into both one-and two-year peri

292、ods in order to avoid distortions related to small sample size in the PTC lapse years of 2000,2002,and 2004;although not a PTC lapse year,1998 is grouped with 1999 due to the small sample of 1998 projects.Though 2013 was a slow year for wind additions,it is shown separately here despite the small sa

293、mple size.0204060801001201400.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.598990203200620082010201220142016201820202022Capacity(MW)Height&Diameter(m)Nameplate capacityRotor diameterHub heightLand-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 28 Sources:ACP,Berkeley Lab Figure 25.Trends in turbine nameplate capacity,hub height,and

294、 rotor diameter Turbines originally designed for lower wind speed sites dominate the market,but the trend towards lower specific power has reversed in recent years As wind turbine blade length has increased over time,the amount of area the blades cover when spinning,known as the rotor swept area(in

295、m2),has grown rapidly over the last two decades.Rotor swept area has grown faster than the increase in average nameplate capacity of wind turbines over time.This has resulted in a decline in the average“specific power”among the U.S.turbine fleet over time,which is calculated by dividing the nameplat

296、e capacity(in watts W)by the rotor swept area(m2).This value has declined from 393 W/m2 among projects installed in 19981999 to 233 W/m2 among projects installed in 2022.However,as shown in Figure 26,the long-term decline in specific power has reversed in recent years,with specific power rising slig

297、htly since the low point in 2019 as turbines with a specific power in the range of 180200 W/m2 have become less popular or available as wind turbine capacities have increased significantly over this timeframe.All else equal,a lower specific power will boost capacity factors,because there is more swe

298、pt rotor area available(resulting in greater energy capture)for each watt of rated turbine capacity.This means that the generator is likely to run closer to or at its rated capacity more often.In general,turbines with low specific power were originally designed for lower wind speed sites,intended to

299、 maximize energy capture in areas where large-rotor machines would not be placed under excessive physical stress due to high or turbulent winds.As suggested in Figure 26 and as detailed later,however,such turbines are in widespread use in the United Stateseven in sites with high wind speeds.The impa

300、ct of lower specific-power turbines on project-level capacity factors is discussed in more detail in Chapter 5.4060801001201400%20%40%60%80%100%2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022130 m115130 m100115 m100 mAverage Rotor diameter(m)%of Turbinesaverage75808590951000%20%40%60%80%100%2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2

301、022100 m90100 m8090 m80 mAverage Hub height(m)%of Turbinesaverage1.01.52.02.53.03.50%20%40%60%80%100%2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 20223.5 MW2.753.5 MW2.02.75 MW2.0 MWAverage Capacity(MW)%of turbinesaverageLand-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 29 Sources:ACP,Berkeley Lab Figure 26.Trends in wind tur

302、bine specific power Wind turbines were deployed in higher wind-speed sites in 2022 than in recent years Figure 27 shows the long-term average wind resource at wind project sites,by commercial operation date.The figure depicts the site-average wind speed(in meters per second,on the right axis)both at

303、 100 meters and at the hub heights for projects installed in each year.Wind resource quality at 100 meters(blue bars)is measured on the left axis.27 Wind projects that came online in 2022 are locatedon averageat sites with an estimated long-term average 100-meter wind speed of 8.3 meters per second(

304、m/s,or 18.6 miles per hour).Given that the average hub height among 2022 wind plants was nearly 100 meters,the same 8.3 m/s wind speed largely holds at hub height as well.Measured at 100 meters,this is the highest site-average wind speed since 2014.Measured at average hub height,it is the highest si

305、nce at least 19981999.The different trends at 100 meters(shown by the blue line,with an overall decline since 1998-1999)and at hub height(shown by the red line,with an overall increase since 1998-1999)illustrate the value of increasingly taller towers in boosting realized average wind speeds at hub

306、height.Meanwhile,Federal Aviation Administration(FAA)and industry data on projects that are“under construction,”in“advanced development,”“pending,”or“proposed”suggest that projects will be built in less windy sites.28 Trends in the wind resource quality indexwhich represents estimates of the gross 2

307、7 The wind resource quality index is based on site estimates of gross capacity factor at 100 meters by AWS Truepower.A single,common wind turbine power curve is used across all sites and timeframes in this case,and no losses are assumed.The values are indexed to projects built in 19981999.Further de

308、tails are found in the Appendix.A benefit of this wind resource quality index is that changes in the index value will better approximate expected changes in actual wind project performance than will changes in average annual wind speed.28“Under construction”turbines are part of a project where const

309、ruction has begun,but the project has not yet been commissioned.Turbines in“advanced development”have one of the following in place:a signed PPA(or similar long-term contract),a firm turbine order,or an announcement to proceed under utility ownership,indicating a high likelihood that they will be bu

310、ilt.“Pending”turbines are those that have received a“No Hazard”determination by the FAA and are not set to expire for 1502002503003504000%20%40%60%80%100%9899 0203200620082010201220142016201820202022350300350250300200250180200Average Specific power(W/m2)average%of TurbinesLand-Based Wind Market Repo

311、rt:2023 Edition 30 capacity factor for each turbine location,indexed to the 19981999 installationsare broadly similar to average wind speed estimates at 100 meters.Sources:ACP,Berkeley Lab,AWS Truepower,FAA Obstacle Evaluation/Airport Airspace Analysis files Figure 27.Wind resource quality by year o

312、f installation at 100 meters and at turbine hub height Several factors could have driven the observed long-term trends in average site quality and wind speeds.First,the availability of low-wind-speed turbines that feature lower specific power has enabled the economic build-out of lower-wind-speed si

313、tes;the same is true with taller towers.Second,transmission constraints(or other siting constraints,or even just regionally differentiated wholesale electricity prices)may have,over time,increasingly focused developer attention on those projects in their pipeline that have access to transmission(or

314、higher-priced markets,or readily available sites without long permitting times),even if located in somewhat lower wind resource sites.These factors may partially explain why average resource quality and wind speeds dropped from the late 1990s to 2012 and again tended to decline from 2014 through 202

315、1.The build-out of new transmission(for example,the completion of major transmission additions in West Texas in 2013),however,may at times have offered the chance to install new projects in more energetic sites.Other forms of federal and/or state policy could also play a role.For example,wind projec

316、ts built in the four-year period from 2009 through 2012 were able to access a 30%cash grant(or ITC)in lieu of the PTC.Many projects availed themselves of this incentive and,because the dollar amount of the grant(or ITC)was not dependent on how much electricity a project generates,it is possible that

317、 developers also seized this limited opportunity to build out the less-energetic sites in their development pipelines.State policies can also sometimes motivate in-state or in-region wind development in lower wind resource regimes.Finally,the sizable increase in site-average wind resource quality in

318、 2022 may be due to the relatively slow pace of new project installations in 2022,partially a consequence of the declining value of and uncertainty in the production tax credit prior to the Inflation Reduction Act.These factors tended to concentrate developer attention in 2022 on the highest-quality

319、 and lowest-cost wind sites in SPP and ERCOT,leading to a buildout in high wind-speed areas.another 18 months,while“proposed”turbines have not yet received any determination.Pending and proposed turbines may not all ultimately be built.However,analysis of past data suggests that FAA pending and prop

320、osed turbines offer a reasonable proxy for turbines built in subsequent years.7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.86570758085909510098-99 02-03 200620082010201220142016201820202022Wind Speed(100m)Past FuturePendingProposedAdv.Dev.Under Const.Index of wind resource quality(19981999=100)Wind resourc

321、e quality(index,100m)Wind speed(m/s,100m&hub height)Wind Speed(hub height)Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 31 Low-specific-power turbines are deployed on a widespread basis;taller towers are seeing increased use in a wider variety of sites One might expect that the increasing market share

322、of low-specific-power turbines(defined here as turbines with specific power 100m)still tend to be most concentrated within the upper Midwest and Northeast regions,two regions known to have higher-than-average wind shear(i.e.,greater increases in wind speed with height),which makes taller towers more

323、 economical.Land-Based Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 32 Sources:ACP,U.S.Wind Turbine Database,AWS Truepower,Berkeley Lab Figure 29:Location of tall tower turbine installations:all U.S.wind plants Wind projects planned for the near future are poised to continue the trend of ever-taller turbines FAA

324、 data on total proposed turbine heights(from ground to blade tip extended directly overhead)in permit applications are reported in Figure 30.Note that these data represent total turbine height or“tip height”not hub heightand include the combined effect of both the tower and half the rotor diameter.F

325、igure 30 shows the average FAA tip height,along with the distribution,for 2022 installations as well as turbines under construction,in advanced development,pending,and proposed.29 Average tip heights for projects that came online in 2022 are 164 meters,up from 158 meters for 2021 projects,and seem d

326、estined to climb higher in the next few years,reaching an average of 195 meters among the“proposed”turbines.The tallest turbines in the permitting process are over 225 meters.Turbines of at least 200 meters appear likely to be installed in nearly every region of the United States,apart from the Sout

327、heast(non-ISO)region(Figure 31).29 Turbine heights reported in FAA permit applications represent the maximum height and can differ from what is ultimately installed.Historically,however,the FAA permit datasets have strongly conformed to subsequent actual installations on average.Land-Based Wind Mark

328、et Report:2023 Edition 33 Sources:ACP,FAA files,Berkeley Lab Figure 30.Total turbine heights proposed in FAA applications,by development status Note:Figure includes FAA data on under-construction,advanced development,pending,and proposed turbines Sources:FAA Obstacle Evaluation/Airport Airspace Anal

329、ysis files,AWS Truepower,ACP,Berkeley Lab Figure 31.Total turbine heights proposed in FAA applications,by location 1251501752002250%20%40%60%80%100%2022 projectsUnder const.Adv.dev.PendingProposed225 m200-225 m175-200 m150-175 m150 mAverage:right axis%of turbinesAverage Total height(meters)Land-Base

330、d Wind Market Report:2023 Edition 34 In 2022,thirteen wind projects were partially repowered,most of which now feature significantly larger rotors and lower specific power ratings The trend of partial wind project repowering continued in 2022,albeit at a slower pace than in 2019-2020,and involved re

331、placing major components of turbines with more-advanced technology to increase energy production,extend project life,and access tax incentives.In 2022,13 projects were partially repowered,involving 838 turbines that totaled 1.7 GW prior to repowering.Retrofitted turbines ranged in age from 10 to 15

332、years old;the median was 11 years.The 1.7 GW of retrofitted turbines in 2022 is a slight increase from the 1.6 GW retrofitted in 2021,but a decline from 2019 and 2020,when 3 GW were retrofitted each year(Figure 32).Sources:ACP,Berkeley Lab,turbine manufacturers Figure 32.Annual amount of partially r

333、epowered wind power capacity and number of turbines The most common retrofit in 2022 was the replacement of shorter with longer blades,but changes in turbine nameplate capacity were also common.Overall,the average turbine nameplate capacity of the retrofitted projects increased modestly(the final repowered capacity of these plants is 1.8 GW),but rotor diameters strongly increased(Figure 33).None o