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1、THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF 5G-ENABLED TECHNOLOGYA STUDY FOR QUALCOMM INCORPORATEDMARCH 20231The Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled TechnologyKEY FINDINGS:The fifth generation of mobile networks,5G,is being rolled out rapidly and is expected to significantly transform the capabilities of m
2、obile networks not only through faster speeds but also with additional benefits such as lower latency and greater traffic capacity.The new use cases enabled by 5Gs enhanced capabilities have the potential to significantly improve productivity across the world.These use cases are already helping busi
3、nesses increase productivity by supporting flexibility and generating cost and time savings and will continue to do so in the coming years.For example,a majority of the business executives surveyed for this study expect 5G to enhance productivity by accelerating the pace of automation to address lab
4、or shortages(78%).The size of the economic opportunity from 5G-technologies depends on the speed of rollout,the spectrum used,and the extent to which new use cases are adopted.Our modeling indicates that the connectivity improvements enabled by mid-band 5G mobile networks are projected to contribute
5、(1.1%)to global GDP in 2030 through productivity gains.These projected benefits will be enabled through new use cases,services and applications,and business models that are facilitated through speed,latency,and traffic capacity improvements in 5G networks.Complementing mid-band 5Gs capabilities by u
6、sing mmWave spectrum could increase the productivity benefits significantly;combined use of mid-band and mmWave spectrum is expected to contribute(1.7%)to global GDP in 2030.In other words,our modeling indicates that the GDP boost enabled by 5G using the mmWave spectrum constitutes almost 10%of the
7、increase in global GDP between 2022 and 2030.Our executive survey indicates that businesses are investing to realize the potential benefits from 5G technologies.A majority of executives surveyed for this report have already started seeing moderate-to-significant benefits from adoption of 5G-tech thr
8、ough improvements in the speed and accuracy in operations.They are also beginning to realize increased remote work possibilities and a greater ability to attract and retain talent.Surveyed executives also realize the potential of 5G to provide a platform for future innovations,with more than two-thi
9、rds acknowledging 5Gs influence in their organizations decisions to invest in technologies such as AI and IoT.However,nearly two-thirds of the executives in our survey also highlight obstacles that may slow down their adoption of 5Gmainly,security concerns and regulatory pressures.THE GLOBAL ECONOMI
10、C POTENTIAL OF 5G-ENABLED TECHNOLOGY1.1%Mid-bandonly1.7%Mid-bandand mmWaveGDP boost in 2030 through 5G-enabledproductivity improvements%of global GDP3The Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled TechnologyTHE GLOBAL ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF 5G-ENABLED TECHNOLOGYFaster and more efficient mobile networksT
11、he rollout of 5G,the fifth generation of mobile networks,continues at pace across the world.As of January 2023,5G was available in 96 countries,1 and according to GSMA forecasts,5G will account for a quarter of total mobile connections worldwide by 2025.2 Consumers are also gearing up for 5G service
12、s:global sales of 5G phones overtook sales of 4G phones in January 2022.3While previous generations of mobile networks connected people,5G goes beyond.It not only connects people better but also connects devices and machines to each other and to people.Compared to previous generations of mobile tech
13、nology,5G networks can transport large amounts of data more quickly,connect an extremely large number of devices reliably,and process very high volumes of data with minimal delay.A platform for innovation and improvements in productivityThe improved connectivity and new innovations enabled by 5G net
14、works has the potential to boost productivity across the global economy.As with previous technologies,the extent to which the widely anticipated broader economic and commercial benefits will be realised is uncertain with both downside risks as well as upside potential.The magnitude of the economic b
15、enefits,and the speed at which they will be realised,will depend on the extent to which 5G mobile networks are deployed globally,the spectrum used for rollout,and investment in developing various use cases and applications.How we estimate the economic opportunity of 5G-enabled technologyIn this repo
16、rt,we describe key findings from a research program to understand the role of 5G and related technologies for consumers,businesses,and the wider economy.Our research involved surveys of consumers and business executives in 13 markets,as well as the development of an econometric model to quantify the
17、 role of 5G networks in the wider economy in terms of improved productivity4.1 GSA,“5G stand-alone January 2023 Summary Report”,17 January 2023.Last accessed January 2023.2 GSMA,“The Mobile Economy 2022”,2022.3 Financial Times,“Learning to love 5G,and beyond”,June 2022.Last accessed January 2023.4 N
18、ote that in this study,we project the GDP boost through 5G-enabled productivity benefits and not,for example,total sales enabled by 5G and associated technologies.GDP is a measure of value creation in the economy whereas sales is akin to business revenue and is typically significantly higher than GD
19、P.45The Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled TechnologyThe Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled TechnologyEnhanced mobilebroadbandFixed wirelessaccessMission-criticalcommunicationsMassive Internetof Things5G will provide the capacity to handle growing data trafc.This will enable a new range of
20、 applications,including reliable mobile internet services for mass gatherings and sports events and AR/VR applications that improve the customer experience in retail.5G delivered via Fixed Wireless Access provides last mile broadband connectivity to customers,helping provide high-speed internet acce
21、ss to households and businesses in remote regions.Low latency and high reliability will enable new applications in manufacturing,logistics,health,and transportation.These include autonomous driving,connected robotic applications,AR/VR,drones and remote surgical/medical operations.5G will be able to
22、facilitate a large network of IoT devices,supporting smart cities,smart infrastructure,and smart power grids capable of self-identifying issues on networks,or smart agricultural practices to identify crop requirements in very large fields.MUCH MORE THAN A FASTER VERSION OF 4GThe key improvement that
23、 4G provided compared to previous generations was higher data speeds that enriched mobile user experiences.With 4G,apps respond quickly,videos download faster,and video telephony works without glitches.These improvements have encouraged the proliferation of apps and services reliant on high-speed ne
24、tworks in recent years.Despite the advances enabled by 4G technology,the quality and speed of mobile networks available today has hindered NEW USE CASES WILL SPUR INNOVATION AND BOOST PRODUCTIVITYImprovements in networks enabled by 5G are expected to support four categories of use cases(see Fig.2):e
25、nhanced mobile broadband(eMBB),fixed wireless access(FWA),mission-critical communications,and Massive Internet of Things(MIoT)which will help meet different widespread adoption of recently developed apps and services.With faster networks,it is likely that more mobile users will see the benefits of t
26、hese innovations in the future.A majority of consumers surveyed for this study report that they do not use a range of digital services currently.However,Fig.1 shows that at least two-thirds of consumers report a willingness to use various digital services if connectivity improvesmore than doubling t
27、he potential demand for these services.business needs across a range of sectors,potentially making 5G technologies ubiquitous.The widespread adoption of the new use cases could transform agricultural and industrial production,for example,through the deployment of sensors,robots,autonomous vehicles,s
28、mart cameras,drones monitoring production,and many other devices.Latency and capacity improvements with 5G networksIn addition to faster download and upload speeds,5G is also expected to provide greater network capacity and enable lower latency(the time it takes for signals to travel through the net
29、work)compared to 4G.These improvements are critical for meeting the global demand for mobile data services and enabling new use cases across all types of industries.(n=5078)Source:Oxford EconomicsFig.2:Use cases enabled by 5GFig.1:Demand for digital servicesSource:GSMA Intelligence40.723.339.533.220
30、.519.439.150.932.338.343.345.6Digital healthcare servicesNext-generation retailVideo gamingDigital education servicesAR/VR experiencesConnected cars020406080100%of respondents67The Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled TechnologyThe Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled Technology84.779.978.978.
31、878.877.3Customers will expect 5G connectivity experiences5G will open up new possibilities forcollaboration with other businesses5G will improve the personalisation of customer experiences5G will help meet customersexpectations on sustainability eforts5G will create higher quality experiences for c
32、ustomers5G will improve brand reputation050100%of respondentsEnabling business innovations and improving productivityThe new use cases enabled by faster speeds,improved latency and traffic capacity will help businesses throughout the world and across various industries increase productivity by suppo
33、rting flexibility and innovation and generating cost and time savings.For example,a majority(78.1%)of the business executives surveyed for this study expect 5G to enhance productivity by accelerating the pace of automation to address labor shortages.And creating value for consumers Executives sentim
34、ents are matched by those of consumers as well.Consumers surveyed for this study feel that if connectivity improvements come to fruition(as shown in Fig.4),they will be better able to access information(66.2%),witness greater social equity due to increased opportunities(59.8%),and have easier intera
35、ctions with friends and family(56.3%).5G-enabled use cases will also promote business innovation by facilitating improved customer experiences,enhanced product development,and enabling better collaboration between businesses.The majority of executives surveyed indicated that 5G will help create bett
36、er products and experiences for consumers and improve business collaboration.A CATALYST FOR FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES5G networks will also serve as the underlying infrastructure enabling innovations in other potentially transformative technologies.For example,the widespread wireless connectivity enabled b
37、y 5G networks will unlock the potential of recent technologies such as Artificial Intelligence(AI)and edge-computing(computing that takes place closer to the source of data,at the edge cloud or edge device,rather than in the central cloud).A majority of executive respondents in our survey expect 5G
38、will become even more powerful when used in tandem with AI,increasing access to data(51.7%)and improving predictive capabilities(49.6%).(n=3030)Source:Oxford EconomicsFig.4:5G impact on customer experiences and business collaborationSurveyed consumers who agree with the following statements on the i
39、mpact of 5G networks(n=5078)Fig.3:5G impact on customer experiences and business collaborationSurveyed business executives who agree with the following statements on the impact of 5G networks(n=3030)(n=5078)Source:Oxford Economics66.259.856.353.152.751.750.746.5Greater access to informationEquity th
40、rough access to opportunitiesEase of interaction with friends and familySocietal innovationSafer environmentsQuality of lifeWork-life balanceImpact on the environment020406080%of respondents89The Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled TechnologyThe Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled Technology
41、MMWAVE 5G SPECTRUM PROJECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE PRODUCTIVITY BENEFITS ASSOCIATED WITH 5G NETWORKSUsing mmWave spectrum for 5G rollout will make mobile networks faster and more efficient5Gs full economic benefits can be realized if mmWave spectrumwhich provides greater bandwidth and capacity r
42、elative to mid-band spectrumis used to complement the capabilities of the mid-band spectrum.According to estimates from Qualcomm,if mmWave spectrum is used alongside mid-band spectrum,5G downlink speeds would be 20 times faster than 4G,and uplink speeds would be six times faster.Further,latency and
43、traffic capacity are expected to improve by 10 times and 13 times,respectively,relative to 4G.5G ROLLOUT WITH MID-BAND SPECTRUM PROJECTED TO BOOST GLOBAL GDP IN 2030 BY$1.3 TRILLION Faster mobile networks can be expected to drive economic gains because they will enable tools and processes that drive
44、 quicker,cheaper,and more convenient production that improves the productivity of businesses.They will also lower search and information costs of consumers and producers(e.g.,through next-generation retail services),enabling new transactions and improving existing ones,thereby stimulating more trade
45、 and competition.5The extent to which businesses can exploit these new capabilities may be determined by the spectrum used for 5G rollout.Mid-band spectrum is most typically used for 5G rollout globally6 but high-band spectrum(i.e.,mmWave)is essential to fully realise the potential benefits from 5G
46、networks.We begin with the projected economic benefits associated with mid-band spectrum below,followed by a discussion of the projected gains associated 5G mmWave in the following pages.We developed an econometric model based on data spanning the last two decades to quantify the extent to which pre
47、vious generations of mobile technology(2G,3G,and 4G)have contributed to productivity growth.Combining the results of our econometric model with assumptions on 5Gs advantage over 4G allows us to estimate Productivity benefits associated with complementing mid-band with mmWaves 1.6 times higher than t
48、hat of mid-band-only 5G5G rollout using mmWave spectrum would,therefore,enable a larger set of use cases,including remote object manipulation,industrial automation,and more widespread use of VR/AR.These use cases will further increase the potential productivity benefits enabled by 5G.We estimate tha
49、t the productivity benefits could contribute around$2.1 trillion to global GDP in 2030(2022 prices),equivalent to 1.7%of global GDP.In other words,the estimated productivity benefits associated with the use of mmWave spectrum is 1.6 times that of mid-band spectrum alone.To put this in context,our mo
50、deling indicates that the GDP boost enabled by 5G constitutes almost 10%of the increase in global GDP between 2022 and 2030.how 5G networks could improve global productivity in a hypothetical scenario where only the network speed improvements of 5G are realized.Estimates provided by Qualcomm indicat
51、e that 5G download speeds could be 5x faster than that of 4G,and uplink speeds are expected to be 2x faster with mid-band spectrum rollout.Traffic capacity and latency with 5G are expected to improve by 4x and 5x respectively compared to 4G.Based on these assumptions and results from our econometric
52、 model,we project that the use cases enabled by 5G using the mid-band spectrum will boost productivity sufficiently to lift global GDP by 1.1%or$1.3 trillion in 2030(2022 prices).These productivity benefits are enabled through new use cases,services and applications,and new business models that rely
53、 on a combination of 5Gs improvements in speed,latency,and traffic capacity.However,as these nascent technologies mature and become more widely adopted,their contribution to the 5G productivity dividend can be expected to increase commensurately.Our modeling suggests that improvements in latency and
54、 traffic capacity will contribute only 15%of the$1.3 trillion in projected productivity benefits by 2030.In other words,the new use cases,products,and services enabled by faster speeds alone is projected to boost global productivity by$1.1 trillion in GDP in 2030(0.9%),in 2022 prices.1.1%of global G
55、DPProductivity-linked boost to global GDP in 2030 enabled by 5G rollout using the mid-band spectrum only 1.7%of global GDPProductivity-linked boost to global GDP in 2030 enabled by 5G rollout using mid-band and mmWave spectrum 5 ITIF,“Promoting European growth,productivity and competitiveness by tak
56、ing advantage of the next digital technology wave”,March 2019.Last accessed January 2023.6 GSMA,“The socio-economic benefits of mid-band 5G services”,February 2022.Last accessed January 2023.7 Business services include real estate activities,professional services,scientific and technical activities,
57、and administrative and support services.1011The Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled TechnologyThe Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled Technology%increase n GDP No data 0%-1%1%-1.5%1.5%-2%CountryUnited StatesChinaJapanGermanyUnited KingdomFranceBrazilRest of the WorldTotalUS$billions(2022 pri
58、ces)634.6503.596.594.970.760.728.3586.32,086.9%Increase2.2%1.9%2.1%2.1%2.0%2.0%1.3%1.4%1.7%Regional impact of 5G will depend on the size of the region and the speed of rolloutThe distribution of the estimated productivity benefits across regions depends on the speed of rollout and the economic size
59、5G-enabled productivity benefits expected to be realized in a wide range of sectorsOur modeling indicates that more than one-fifth of the estimated productivity benefits will be in the manufacturing sector(see Fig.5).However,5G will also improve productivity across other sectors:business services,7
60、retail and wholesale,and the transport and storage sectors are each expected to realize around 10%of the total global benefits in absolute terms.of the regions.As shown in Fig.6,we project the largest gains to be seen in the US,China,Japan,Germany,the UK,and France.The wide dispersion of productivit
61、y gains across sectors highlights the variety of potential use cases and applications that 5G is expected to enable.In relative terms(see also Fig.5),interestingly,public services(including defense)and the information and communication sectors,along with manufacturing,are projected to realize produc
62、tivity boosts exceeding 2%of the respective sector output(in value-added terms).Fig.6:Global distribution of productivity-enabled GDP benefits from full 5G rollout(including mmWave)Darker shades on the map indicate higher%increase(grey represent areas for which data was not available).GDP uplift in
63、US$billions(2022 prices)and in%for select countries are shown in the table.Source:Oxford Economics22.5%13.2%12.3%10.5%7.5%7.3%5.0%21.7%$2.1 trillionManufacturing 2.2%Business services 1.3%Retail and wholesale 1.9%Transport and storage 1.7%Government services 2.1%ICT services 2.1%Healthcare and socia
64、l work 1.8%Others(see note)2.1%Total 1.7%Figures in the legend show growth in sector economic output associated with 5G-enabled technologies.Source:Oxford EconomicsNote:Other sectors not listed above include Accommodation and Catering(1.9%),Agriculture,forestry and fisheries(3.2%),Arts,recreation an
65、d personal services(2.1%),Construction(3.9%),Education(2.2%),Extraction(2.3%),Financial services(4.3%),and Utilities(1.8%).Fig.5:Sectoral distribution of global productivity-enabled GDP gains from full 5G rollout in 20301213The Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled TechnologyThe Global Economic Po
66、tential of 5G-Enabled TechnologyOur index indicates that the US,UK,Germany,and China are better placed to realize 5G benefitsTo assess the attitudes and preparedness of businesses themselves in adopting 5G technologies,we consolidated the responses to the various questions in the business survey int
67、o a 5G Business Readiness Index.The index is supplemented with national data capturing factors such as skills,capital market Business executives in France are relatively less optimistic about the potential of 5GIt is interesting to note the subtle differences in adoption,perception and investment cl
68、imates among the advanced countries in our study sample.For example,our modelling projects similar 5G-enabled potential economic gains in France and Germany,but our survey findings show that Germany is better placed to realize these benefits.From their adoption of 5G-tech to-date,executives in Franc
69、e and Germany report realising similar levels of benefits,but looking forward,French businesses are relatively less optimistic about the future potential of 5G and therefore,are planning to invest relatively less going forward,which may limit the economic opportunity from 5G in France.conditions,and
70、 institutional factors that could influence innovation and technology adoption by businesses in the corresponding countries.Our index is limited to the 12 out of the 13 countries8 in our survey sample and measures the readiness of businesses relative to other countries.Notably,our index shows that b
71、usinesses in the UK,US,Germany,and China are in a relatively better position than others in the sample to take Executives in India optimistic about 5Gs potential despite its late launch 5G services were formally launched launched in India in October 20229,and therefore,Indian executives surveyed may
72、 not have had the opportunity to experience 5G services.Nevertheless,they are optimistic about the prospects of 5G and report that their businesses are planning to adopt 5G technologies to the same extent as others in our sample.Around two-thirds of Indian respondents say 5Gs capabilities will open
73、new geographic markets to business(65%),enhance the speed in which organizations are able to derive value from advanced technologies(67%),and drive exciting new possibilities over the next three years for new products and services(61%).In that,they do not differ greatly from the overall survey resul
74、ts.With faster 5G rollout across the country,India may be able reap significant economic benefits from 5G and close the gap with advanced economies.advantage of the potential benefits of 5G.Respondents in these countries are ahead of others in our survey sample in their plans to adopt 5G technologie
75、s from which they expect to realize greater benefits in the future.They also perceive fewer barriers than others in the sample.645757555150494847474543United KingdomUnited StatesGermanyChinaJapanFranceAustraliaNordicsNew ZealandCanadaSingaporeSpain40506070Index(sample average=50)Source:Oxford Econom
76、icsFig.7:5G Business Readiness Index8 5G services in India were formally launched in October 2022,after the survey for this study was conducted in India,and therefore some of the questions in the survey,e.g.,on 5Gs performance to-date,were not applicable to Indian respondents.Therefore,India has bee
77、n excluded from the index which combines executives views on their current and past experiences with 5G adoption.9 The Economic Times,“Jio,Airtel announce further expansion of 5G coverage in new cities”,31 January 2023,last accessed February 2023.1415The Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled Techn
78、ologyThe Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled Technology76.575.871.471.2Greater ability toattract talentImproved Datacollection accuracyImproved speed ofvarious tasksGreater remoteworking possibilities020406080100%of respondents67%5G drovedecision to rollout cloud63%5G influencedIoT adoption70%be
79、lieve they will all behindcompetitionwithout 5G(n=3030)Source:Oxford EconomicsSource:Oxford EconomicsFig.8:Businesses views on 5G and the future of their organizationShare of surveyed executives who realized the following benefits from 5G capabilities(n=3030)Fig.9:Businesses views on 5G and the futu
80、re of their organizationShare of surveyed executives who agreed with the statements below(n=3030)ARE BUSINESSES READY TOREALIZE THE PRODUCTIVITYBENEFITS OF 5G TECHNOLOGIES?It will not be long before businesses start to realize significant productivity benefits from 5G technologies.We learned from ou
81、r executive respondents that almost all businesses surveyed have already adopted or are planning to adopt 5G-enabled technologies,and a majority have already started realizing at least moderately positive results.A majority said that 5G already has improved the accuracy of data collection(75.8%)and
82、increased the speed in which tasks can be completed(71.4%).A similar number have also leveraged 5G to attract new talent(76.5%)or offer greater remote possibilities(75.8%)critical decisions that will help establish a savvy workforce.Many also realize the potential of 5G to provide a platform for fut
83、ure innovations.And the influence of a potential 5G revolution can been seen clearly in business decisions.More than two-thirds(67.2%)say 5G drove their decision to roll out cloud,and nearly as many(63.8%)claim it has influenced IoT adoption.Perhaps even more indicative of 5Gs potential is a fear of
84、 missing out:70.3%of executives say they will fall behind if they do not integrate 5G.A word of caution,though.Many executives acknowledge various barriers slowing down their adoption of 5G technologies,as shown in Fig.11.Nearly four in five cite security as an impediment to 5G(78.4%),and almost two
85、-thirds are stymied by regulatory pressures(64.6%)or worry that 5G technology is not sufficiently mature(64.0%).A favorable macroeconomic and regulatory environment that addresses these concerns and encourages faster development of 5G networks will be necessary to facilitate the development of innov
86、ative 5G use cases.78.464.664.062.659.258.855.055.054.742.3Security concernsRegulatory requirementsLack of technological maturityTime to implementationCustomer resistanceThe cost of technology upgradesLack of available skills in the workforceLength of the expected ROILack of support from leadershipC
87、ompatability with existing systems020406080100%of respondents(n=3030)Source:Oxford EconomicsFig.10:Barriers to 5G adoptionSurveyed business executives who consider the listed factors a moderate to significant barrier to 5G adoption in their organisations16The Global Economic Potential of 5G-Enabled
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93、es over 2,000 international organizations,including leading multinational companies and financial institutions;key government bodies and trade associations;and top universities,consultancies,and think tanks.March 2023This report was commissioned by Qualcomm Incorporated.All data shown in tables and
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