伟凯：2023年矿业和金属行业调查报告-揭开不确定性的迷雾（英文版）（10页）.pdf

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1、Geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures may have overtaken ESG as the top concerns for the mining&metals sector,but there is little expectation that ESG factors will diminish for investors and firms in 2023.Mining&Metals 2023:Lifting the fog of uncertaintyMining&Metals 2023:Lifting the fog of

2、uncertaintyLooking ahead,the mining&metals sector and its stakeholders have to be ready for anything in 2023,downturn or not.Rebecca Campbell,Damien Nyer and JohnTivey explore.Top risks for 2023:Inflationary cost pressures and geopolitics trump ESG and climate change concerns 202320220510152025Infla

3、tionary cost pressures ESGEnergy costs Climate change regulation/activismReconfiguration of global mining&metals supply chains Pressure on metal supplies Resource nationalism Chinese slowdown Labor shortages Other Geopolitics 18%4%11%24%10%5%10%16%10%11%16%7%7%6%3%2%4%7%18%11%Source:White&Case 2023

4、Mining&Metals market sentiment surveyLooking back,2022 proved remarkably tumultuous for commodities markets.Will 2023 offer more certainty?To get an idea,White&Case has conducted its seventh annual survey of industry participants,with 156 senior decision-makers sharing their thoughts for the year ah

5、ead.The respondents paint a mixed picture of what the industry expects.Inflation and geopolitics have overtaken ESG as the biggest concerns for 2023,while higher energy costs,shifting supply chains,and climate-related regulation and activism still worry firms.Despite shared concerns,there is surpris

6、ingly little agreement on what the economic outlook is,how market players will respond,or what will be the pervasive theme for the year ahead.And yet,even with the high degree of uncertainty facing the industry,4Q 2022 saw the largest amount of M&A activity in a decade,nearly matching the total volu

7、me of deals for 1-3Q last year.Mining companies continue to make acquisitions and investments knowing that whatever turbulence they face today,the material demands of the energy transition and risk of supply deficits are stark.Striking in the survey responses is the link of areas perceived in high d

8、emand to the EV supply chain.Copper and lithium ranked materially higher as likely big winners in 2023,with battery minerals and base metals as the most likely areas for consolidation.It seems that everything EV-linked is perceived to be where the opportunities are for 2023.As the energy transition,

9、decarbonization,and shifting consumer and policy preferences accelerate,we can no longer talk about a unified price-and-market cycle for mineral products with confidence(if we ever could).New entrants and longstanding participants alike need increasingly refined understandings and plans for specific

10、 segments of minerals and metals markets whose traditional correlations and intra-sector relationships are rapidly evolving in a difficult economic environment.Uncertainty in any industry cannot Mining companies continue to make acquisitions and investments knowing that whatever turbulence they face

11、 today,the material demands of the energy transition and risk of supply deficits are stark3Mining&MetalsResource nationalism likely to increase in 2023 68%25%8%IncreaseStay the sameDecrease Source:White&Case 2023 Mining&Metals market sentiment surveybe goodbut who in the mining&metals sector can man

12、age it best?The lack of clarity regarding the global macroeconomic outlook is belied by the commodities considered most likely to underperform in 2023 by our respondents:iron ore,coal and gold.All three point to deflationary expectations despite continued concerns about inflation.The implications fo

13、r the mining&metals sectoreither wayare far-reaching.Costs normally fall far more slowly than commodity prices,further weakening profit margins and compounding the negative effects of a market pullback.Nor have market shocks in recent history during the Global Financial Crisis,2013 2014,and initial

14、COVID shock in 2020,seen interest rates rise anywhere close to the levels seen now,as the Federal Reserve and other leading central banks resorted to monetary policy measures to dampen high inflation.Since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the imposition of zero-COVID measures in China,th

15、e markets faced a perfect storm of competing pressures unlikely to fully subside in 2023.On top of this,miners face intensifying pressures from investors,local communities and Iron ore most likely to underperfom in 2023,followed by coal and gold 302520151050Iron oreGoldNickelUraniumCopperCoalLithium

16、AluminumOtherZinc28%6%5%23%5%4%19%5%3%2%Source:White&Case 2023 Mining&Metals market sentiment surveyper tonne Copper prices reached highest level on record in March 2022,averaging at US$8,800 per tonne in 2022US$10,400 national governments to meet ESG criteria,and the social strain of high inflation

17、 is now pushing an emerging wave of resource nationalism.Heading into 4Q 2022,the dominant question was whether the mining&metals sector was prepared for a global downturn.Looking ahead in 2023,the mining&metals sector and its stakeholders have to be ready for anything in 2023,downturn or not.The in

18、flationary case Despite recent declines in major inflation indices pointing to an easing of inflationary pressures across major economies,theres reason to believe an inflation upside remains for the year ahead.The end of zero-COVID policies in China brought on by public pressure offers a short-term

19、downside for commodity prices as infection and mortality rates spike,before likely offering Cu4White&Casedemand upside in the second half of the year.Chinas property sector is a leading bellwether for metals,as construction provides the single-largest source of demand for iron ore,steel and nickel,w

20、hich is used as an input for stainless steel globally;and the real estate sector continues to weigh on sentiment and the economy,with house prices falling for the sixth month in a row in December 2022.But support measures reducing the cost of credit and encouraging mortgage borrowing are likelier to

21、 have a more positive effect in the event that consumer confidence improves after the initial peak of infections.Reopening in China should improve consumer confidence,and with it spending and borrowing for commodity-intensive goods and housing.Chinas potential upside for commodities coincides with a

22、 persistently strong labor market in the United States,and excess savings among American households worth an estimated US$1.7 trillion heading into 2023.Rapidly rising interest rates have yet to significantly cool jobs and wages figures,boosting the odds of a“soft landing.”Growth in 3Q outpaced expe

23、ctations with limited evidence of a consumer slowdown in 4Q.European economies have also weathered punishingly high energy prices linked to Russias cutoffs of piped natural gas exports surprisingly well.Eurozone unemployment reached a record low of 6.5 percent at the end of November and increases fr

24、om the consumer price index in Germany,the most important economy for European Central Bank policy,fell more than expected in December to 9.6 percent in annualized terms,a steep decline from the 11.3 percent figure recorded in November.Though many European economies face significant recession risks

25、in the year ahead,the Eurozone and EU more broadly enter 2023 in a stronger position than expected for much of 2022.Our survey respondents expect costs to remain higher for longer despite signs of relief first seen among metallurgical firms last autumn,with energy costs coming in fourth for our resp

26、ondents among the biggest risks for 2023.Anglo American saw unit costs rise 16 percent in 2022 while production dropped 3 percent.Rio Tintos iron ore cost guidance for 2023 notes an expected 7.7 percent increase respectively with production,the companys largest source of profits,remaining flat.Rios

27、copper cost guidance expects a 6.7 percent increase for next year,with output growth driven by the acquisition of Turquoise Hill.Even as inflation moderates,cost levels remain elevated relative to 2019,with miners like BHP warning of continued inflation risks in 2023.Our respondents similarly note t

28、hat A granular understanding of the market is now more necessary than ever to remain competitive;we can no longer accept as a given the relatively unified price cycle across the mining&metals sector Biggest impact of continued trade tensions:Inflationary cost pressures on end-users Inflationary cost

29、 pressures on end-usersSpeculative pressure on commodity pricesSlowdown in actual commodity demandLocalized but material impacts on particular commoditiesLittle actual impactOther38%27%16%6%9%4%Source:White&Case 2023 Mining&Metals market sentiment survey5Mining&MetalsTotal metals&mining industry M&A

30、 deals worth US$9.9bn were announced globally in Q3 2022Source:Mining TechnologyUS$9.9bntrade tensions will likely increase inflationary pressures for end-users,feeding into their own operating costs and markets more generally.A stronger than expected demand and price environment in 2023 could provi

31、de more cushion for earnings and spending,but would likely increase cost-side pressures and constraints on financing.It could also alter firms ESG exposure.The deflationary case A host of deflationary drivers is equally important to consider.The Federal Reserve has not undertaken a hiking cycle this

32、 aggressive since the Volcker Shock in 1980,dramatically strengthening the US dollar against most currencies and increasing the currency costs of commodity imports and debt denominated in US dollars globally.Rising interest rates in the US have decimated demand in the US housing market,nearly 17 per

33、cent of US GDP alone,made auto loans increasingly expensive for households,and driven up the cost of interest on credit cards,a dynamic buoyed until now by the excess savings accumulated over the course of the pandemic.However,excess savings are likely to be run down in the first half of 2023,driven

34、 by rising interest rates.Higher costs of issuing US dollar-denominated debt hurt emerging markets.The IMF estimates that 60 percent of low-income developing countries are at risk of debt crises in the year ahead.The US and Eurozone face greater recession risks the longer interest rates and inflatio

35、n levels remain elevated,which could drag down growth and commodities demand across emerging markets if rate hikes continue.Even China is likely to see softer consumer demand as its export orders fall.The generous financial support and spending across developed markets,led by the US in 2020 and 2021

36、,provide a rapidly diminishing tailwind for consumers.Targeted support for surges in energy prices in Europe,for instance,has a net deflationary impact by reducing the inflationary effects of high energy prices across the economy without generating demand for other goods and services.Instead,househo

37、lds inflation since H2 2022 began.Lower price levels for metals since May of 2022 point to demand weakness,whether from property market troubles or over-ordering inventory from pandemic supply chain shocks.Recession or not,upward price pressures are fading.Planning for risksThis years survey results

38、 make clear that mining&metals sector participants are immensely unsure of what to expect in 2023.The novel synchronization of the commodities cycle with the global macroeconomic cycle parallels a decoupling of price and demand expectations between traditionally correlated minerals and metals.Sector

39、 participants need to maintain the long view to put themselves in the best strategic position possible regardless of where the global economy goes in the next 12 to 18 months.A granular understanding of the market is more necessary than ever to remain competitive and capture value.We can no longer a

40、ccept as a given the relatively unified price cycle across the mining&metals sector.Optionality is important,but there are still opportunities for growth even amid so much uncertainty.Mining majors enter 2023 in a much stronger position than previous downturns.Respondents were divided over whether o

41、r not majors will increase their merger&acquisition activity.2014 instilled discipline among mining majors,punishing those whod overleveraged and neglected cost-cutting.The largest mining companies have since shied away from developing their own projects,instead allowing junior miners to do so until

42、 theyre ripe for M&A activity.That approach comes with considerable risks,particularly as junior miners have good reason to consolidate among themselves,seek are running down their excess savings from the past three years,which should lead to a downward correction in demand.Respondents cite geopolit

43、ics and trade tensions as leading concerns for 2023 with good reason.The Biden administration continues to oppose the reconstitution of the Appellate Body of the WTO,maintains steel tariffs first imposed by the Trump administration,and raised the ire of European metallurgical firms with energy subsi

44、dy provisions included in the Inflation Reduction Act.Russias invasion of Ukraine,following cutoffs of piped natural gas supplies to Europe,the imposition of western import bans and a G-7 price ceiling on Russian crude exports,and the EUs recently negotiated carbon tariff(CBAM)have introduced an unp

45、recedented degree of political volatility to commodities markets.The net effect of these will be to hold costs for businesses higher for longer despite an easing of inflation,thereby passing on costs to consumers and accelerating the exhaustion of savings generated by pandemic policies.Finally,produ

46、cers globally have begun to report relative declines in cost or,at minimum,significant slowdowns in the rate of cost increases.European producers struggling to adapt to surging energy prices saw producer price inflation(PPI)peak in August-September at 43.4 percent year-on-year,only to decline to 30.

47、8 percent for the November reading.That figure was 7.4%in the US.Producers in China have registered a net decrease year-on-year in costs since October.Rather than crash the energy transition,the surge in energy prices accelerated it.Investments in efficiency,accelerated deployments of renewable ener

48、gy,heat pump installations and campaigns to encourage conservation have led to declines in producer price Mining majors enter 2023 in a much stronger position than previous downturns S&P Commodity Insights expects the aggregate global capex across major mined minerals,excluding coal,to decline in no

49、minal terms by US$11 billion US$11bn6White&CaseClimate change response/energy transition and managing supply chains/labor continue to dominate as the main priorities for the second year running20232022Climate change response/energy transitionManaging supply chains/labor GrowthProductivity gainsESG p

50、oliciesEnergy supply Other30252015105028%29%21%20%20%13%13%10%8%20%6%4%4%4%Source:White&Case 2023 Mining&Metals market sentiment surveyout joint ventures with downstream consumers,or otherwise explore alternative financing arrangements to pursue growth more aggressively than majors do.Since few proj

51、ects are developed by majors and firms more generally have struggled to finance via capital markets in 2022,junior miners,end-users and traders have turned to joint ventures,direct financing and long-term offtake agreements to secure supply.Junior miners may be better placed for growth despite finan

52、cial conditions in the event that majors dont shell out.Our respondents expect that end-users,governments,export credit agencies and development finance institutions will lead the way,financing critical minerals projects for these reasons,with conflicting views on whether or not majors are willing t

53、o spend.S&P Commodity Insights expects the aggregate global capex across major mined minerals,excluding End-users expected to play a far bigger role in financing the development of energy transition minerals 20232022End-usersGovernments/ECAs/DFIsEquity capital marketsCommercial lenders Other 4540353

54、0252015105041%31%2%27%23%12%15%Source:White&Case 2023 Mining&Metals market sentiment survey31%18%7Mining&MetalsBattery minerals and base metals are most likely to experience consolidation in 2023 20232022Base metalsBattery minerals Precious metalsCoal Other45403530252015105033%20%36%42%15%22%14%11%2

55、%4%Source:White&Case 2023 Mining&Metals market sentiment surveyMining&metals players are likely to turn to offtakers/end-users and alternative financing for their funding needs Relatively moreRelatively less0102030405060708090Offtakers/End-usersStreaming/Royalty/Alternative financing 84%73%16%27%Sou

56、rce:White&Case 2023 Mining&Metals market sentiment surveycoal,to decline in nominal terms by US$11 billion,while inflation lifts aggregate capex costs for the sector.Anglo American is managing cost inflation with relatively flat capex levels by deferring discretionary spending.By contrast,Rio Tinto

57、has committed to increasing its growth and decarbonization spending for 2023-2025 while holding capex relatively flat to sustain existing operations.Spending is still going ahead,but increasingly targeted at battery and decarbonization minerals,with considerable caution given varied demand expectati

58、ons across commodities as the energy transition accelerates.BHP has made a binding offer of US$6.4 billion to OZ Minerals to acquire the companys copper portfolio in anticipation of a large supply deficit.The acquisition follows on Rios decision to invest US$3.3 billion to acquire Turquoise Hill,giv

59、ing it majority control of the worlds largest prospective copper-gold project at Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia.But our respondents and the market are unsure as to whether these big ticket acquisitions will spur competitors to grab critical mineral assets,especially given the difficulty reaching agreements

60、over the market value of assets whose value rose significantly between 2020 and 2022,current declines notwithstanding.Respondents note that pressures are mounting to vertically integrate between the upstream and downstream of the mining&metals sector and its end-users as protection against supply ch

61、ain disruptions.The various bullwhip effects triggered by the pandemic and pandemic responses in 2020 have clearly reshaped business strategies among end-users of mining&metals products.Predictions of worsening supply deficits for copper,nickel,lithium and other transition metals also rest on assump

62、tions about economic growth,demand intensity and efficiency of use that are highly uncertain.These conditions put additional pressure on project finance and M&A activity,as miners,lenders,private equity investors and end-users frequently disagree over the proper valuation of a given asset amid so mu

63、ch uncertainty.Financing and corporate transactions are likely to continue to evolve toward alternative arrangements,including streaming and royalty financing,as well as direct partnerships between miners and end-users,as firms insulate themselves from uncertainty through proactive investments.Marke

64、t trends are expected to vary within the mining sector,further complicating the outlook depending on economic conditions.Demand for battery minerals is likely to be the largest driver of consolidation in 2023,rather than price declines.Respondents ranked base metals such as copper and nickelwhich ar

65、e essential inputs for electric vehicles and electrificationahead of base metals,indicating that the EV supply chain is where the opportunities will be in 2023.By contrast,iron ore has struggled from the slowdown in Chinas construction demand,lower steel throughput and expanding Bloomberg estimates

66、lithium-ion battery market size to be worth$182.53 billion by 2030US$182bn8White&Caseefforts to recycle supply.Coal enjoyed a resurgence in 2022 that seems likely to be short-lived,as renewables deployments accelerate and alter global supply/demand balances of piped natural gas and LNG.These two com

67、modities account for the bulk of the volume of global minerals production,pointing to a structural decline in sector value amid surging critical minerals demand.Shifts in consumer relationships with the mining sector fall downstream from these trends.Automakers and battery manufacturers are now secu

68、ring needed minerals in concert with junior and mid-sized miners through financing deals,joint ventures,equity raises and offtake agreements.Similarly,miners that have divested out of coal portfolios are expected to seek out deals in the battery and base metals space as well,meanwhile Fortescue,Glen

69、core,BHP,Hancock Prospecting,and other iron ore miners are expected to seek new revenues from blue and green hydrogen,investments into potash,or other decarbonization of steel mill operations.Political risks are also heightened in the current climate.The combination of price levels that remain eleva

70、ted compared to pre-pandemic trends,persistently high inflation,rising costs of US dollar-denominated borrowing,and hot demand for battery minerals and metals are encouraging governments to raise mining sector taxes and actively intervene in mining markets through export restrictions and local benef

71、iciation requirements.Typically,resource nationalism rises when prices are surging or expected to trend higher in the future,both of which currently depend on considerably uncertain outlooks for demand amid ongoing underinvestment into new supply,particularly for copper,as a result of the structural

72、 shift toward junior miners for project development.Our respondents primarily focused on risks of tax increases,a net negative for profitability and project development,but still express concerns about contract renegotiations and potential disputes with sovereign governments.Miners and metallurgical

73、 firms are therefore stuck navigating simultaneous pro-cyclical and counter-cyclical trends during a period when traditional avenues for financing are expensive and policy risks are increasingly supportive of investment on developed markets such as Australia,Canada and the US,riskier on emerging mar

74、kets in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa,and subject to growing trade tensions,including the adoption of carbon import levies by the EU.The successful reconstitution of the Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan,one of the largest finds in the world,speaks to the importance of reaching mutuall

75、y beneficial agreements with governments keen to profit off of the emerging demandlandscape.The one thing our respondents made clear is the near total lack of certainty and confidence about where the market is headed.Respondents offered a wide range of diverging views about the themes that will domi

76、nate 2023,with some citing high prices and good supply/demand fundamentals,others citing policy support from local governments,inflation and cost pressures,or a deepened focus on climate resilience.None confidently predicted growth or recession.Deal types,structure of financing and risks for mining

77、are all rapidly evolving without a clear picture of whats to come.Shifts in US trade policy against the WTO,the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act,and the EUs recently agreed carbon border adjustment mechanism(CBAM)all create new risks of disputes and commercial litigation for metals firms as we

78、ll as opportunities to invest.The growing overlap between ESG concerns and structural market trends is driving relatively novel approaches to vertical integration and the shortening of supply chains.These changes will push more firms to look at carbon credits and trading schemes or seek to minimize

79、risks from their assets of future trade disputes,where possible,while preparing for them in the event they arise.2023 is likely to surprise us as much as 2022 did.Being knowledgeable,nimble,adaptable and forward-thinking matter more than ever.There are still many avenues to invest into prospective p

80、rojects and profit off of the energy transition,even with surprises surely in store over the next 12 months.Increased taxation is anticipated to be the most likely manifestion of resource nationalism in 202323%28%19%12%4%5%9%In-country benefication Increased taxationContract renegotiationRestriction

81、s on exportOtherOutright expropriationForced equity transfersSource:White&Case 2023 Mining&Metals market sentiment surveyThe global battery materials market size is projected to reach$80.5 billion by 2030,growing at a CAGR of 5.9%from 2021 to 2030 according to Allied Market Research US$80.5bn9Mining

82、&M 2023 White&Case LLPRebecca CampbellRebecca CampbellPartner,LondonPartner,LondonT+44 20 7532 2315 +44 20 7532 2315 E John Tivey John Tivey Partner,MelbournePartner,MelbourneT+61 3 8486 8083 +61 3 8486 8083 E Damien NyerDamien NyerPartner,New YorkPartner,New YorkT+1 212 819 8336 +1 212 819 8336 E W

83、hite&Case means the international legal practice comprising White&Case LLP,a New York State registered limited liability partnership,White&CaseLLP,a limited liability partnership incorporated under English law and all other affiliated partnerships,companies and entities.This article is prepared for the general information of interested persons.It is not,and does not attempt to be,comprehensive in nature.Due to the general nature of its content,it should not be regarded as legal advice.