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1、2023Boom and Bust CoalGlobal Energy Monitor,CREA,E3G,Reclaim Finance,Sierra Club,SFOC,Kiko Network,CAN Europe,Bangladesh Groups,ACJCE,Chile SustentableTRACKING THE GLOBAL COAL PLANT PIPELINEBOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|2GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKO

2、NETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEABOUT THE COVERThe cover photo shows activists staring down a bucket wheel excavator at the Garzweiler open-pit coal mine in Ltzerath,Germany,where the mines planned expansion would raze nearby villages and evict local residents.Photo Bernd

3、 Lauter/Greenpeace,January 2023.GLOBAL ENERGY MONITORGlobal Energy Monitor(GEM)develops and shares information on energy projects in support of the worldwide movement for clean energy.By studying the evolving international energy landscape,and cre-ating databases,reports,and interactive tools that e

4、nhance understanding,GEM seeks to build an open guide to the worlds energy system.For more information,visit www.globalenergymonitor.org.CENTRE FOR RESEARCH ON ENERGYAND CLEAN AIRThe Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air(CREA)is an independent research organization focused on revealing the tre

5、nds,causes,and health impacts,as well as the solutions to air pollution.For more information,visit www.energyandcleanair.org.E3GE3G is an independent climate change think tank with a global outlook.They work on the frontier of the climate landscape,tackling the barriers and advancing the solutions t

6、o a safe climate.Their goal is to translate climate politics,eco-nomics and policies into action.For more information,visit www.e3g.org.RECLAIM FINANCEReclaim Finance is an NGO affiliated with Friends of the Earth France.Reclaim Finance exposes the climate impacts of financial players,denounces the

7、most harmful practices and puts its expertise at the service of public authorities and financial stakeholders who desire to bend existing practices to ecological imperatives.For more information,visit reclaimfinance.org.SIERRA CLUBThe Sierra Club is Americas largest and most influential grass-roots

8、environmental organization,with millions of members and supporters.In addition to protecting every persons right to get outdoors and access the healing power of nature,the Sierra Club works to promote clean energy,safeguard the health of our communities,protect wildlife,and preserve our remaining wi

9、ld places through grassroots activism,public education,lobbying,and legal action.For more information,visit www.sierraclub.org.SOLUTIONS FOR OUR CLIMATESolutions for Our Climate(SFOC)is a nonprofit organization established in 2016 to address the socialand environmental impacts of climate change.SFOC

10、 conducts research on solutions for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and expanding renewables,and coordinates campaigns with both domestic and inter-national organizations to address the climate crisis.For more information,visit www.forourclimate.org.KIKO NETWORKKiko Network is a national Japanese

11、environ-mental NGO that tackles climate change by working with local communities,conducting research,submitting proposals or negotiating at the national and international level,and maintaining a database of coal-fired power generation units in Japan.For more informa-tion,visit www.kikonet.org/?cat=5

12、4.CAN EUROPEClimate Action Network(CAN)Europe is Europes leading NGO coalition fighting dangerous climate change.With over 170 member organisations active in 38 European countries,representing over 1,500 NGOs and more than 47 million citizens,CAN Europe promotes sustainable climate,energy and develo

13、pment policies throughout Europe.For more information,visit caneurope.org.Note:CAN Europe only contributed to information on Trkiye.BANGLADESH GROUPS(BAPA&WKB)Bangladesh Poribesh Andolon(BAPA)was launched to create a nationwide,united,and strong civic movement to protect Bangladeshs environment.For

14、more information,visit Bapa.org.bd.Waterkeepers Bangladesh(WKB)works to protect the water and water bodies of Bangladesh including its for-ests resources through enforcement,fieldwork,and community action.For more information,visitwaterkeepersbangladesh.org.ALLIANCE FOR CLIMATE JUSTICE AND CLEAN ENE

15、RGY(ACJCE)The Alliance for Climate Justice and Clean Energy(ACJCE)is a civil society network endeavoring for a transition in Pakistans energy sector.ACJCE includes six organisations,namely Policy Research Institute For Equitable Development(PRIED),Pakistan Fisherfolk Forum(PFF),Alternative Law Colle

16、ctive(ALC),Indus Consortium(IC),The Knowledge Forum(TKF),and Alternate Development Services(ADS).For more information,visit .CHILE SUSTENTABLECreated in 1997,Fundacin Chile Suste-ntable is an initiative of environmental organizations,academics,and citizens dedicated to the analysis and design of new

17、 public policies on water,energy,and biodiversity in support of Chiles transition to a green,democratic,and socially equitable society capable of restoring ecosystems and facing the climate crisis.Through citizen proposals and campaigns,it has influenced the achievement of new laws for environmental

18、 protection,water security,and energy transition in Chile.For more information,visit .ABOUT THE GLOBAL COAL PLANT TRACKERThe Global Coal Plant Tracker is an online database that identifies and maps every known coal-fired generating unit and every new unit proposed since January 1,2010(30 MW and larg

19、er).Developed by Global Energy Monitor,the tracker uses footnoted wiki pages to document each plant and is updated biannually.For further details,see Tracker Methodology.PRODUCTIONDesign by Charlene Will and Mimi Heft.Additional design and page layout by David Van Ness.PERMISSIONS/COPYRIGHTCopyright

20、 Global Energy Monitor et al.Distributed under a Creative Com-mons Attribution 4.0 International License.FURTHER RESOURCESFor additional data on proposed and existing coal plants,see Summary Data on the GEM website,which provides over 20 tables providing results from the Global Coal Plant Tracker(GC

21、PT),broken down by province,nation,and region.For links to reports based on GCPT data,see Reports&Briefings on the GEM website.To obtain primary data from the GCPT,see Download Data on the GEM website.GlobalEnergyMonitorREPORT|APRIL 2023|3GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SF

22、OC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEEXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe upheaval in the global energy sector in 2022 created renewed speculation of a“coal comeback,”but the end of coal nevertheless remains in sight.Today,nearly one-third of operating global coal capacity(580 gigawatt

23、s(GW)has a phase out date,and much of the remaining capacity(1,400 GW)is under the purview of carbon neutrality targets.Just 5%of the global coal fleet stands beyond the scope of a national commitmenta reality nearly unthinkable a decade ago.But the pace of the global coal phase out is not yet compa

24、tible with the goals of the Paris climate agreement.Last month,the UN Secretary-General Antnio Guterres outlined an“Acceleration Agenda,”renewing calls for an immedi-ate end to new coal,and for a phase out of existing coal by 2030 in developed countries and 2040 in the rest of the world.Under such a

25、 scenario,only 70%ofOECD operating coal capacity is currently on pace(330 GW),and outside the OECD,only 6%of coal capacity has a known closure date before 2040(93 GW).In terms of new coal,while coal under developmentor coal in pre-construc-tion and constructionhas collapsed by two thirds since the P

26、aris agreement,nearly 350 GW of new capacity is still proposed across 33 countries,and an additional 192 GW of capacityis under construction.Chinas pre-construction and construction capacity surpassed the rest of the worlds in 2021,and the gap widened in 2022.New coal capacity under development in C

27、hina increased by 38%(266 GW to 366 GW),while the capacity in the rest of the world decreased by 20%(214 GW to 172 GW).China now accounts for two thirds(68%)of global capacity under development,up from 55%a year ago.Urgent action is necessary to ensure an end to coal and a fighting chance at a livab

28、le climate.The IPCC has stated the necessity for“rapid and deep,and Boom and Bust Coal 2023TRACKING THE GLOBAL COAL PLANT PIPELINEGlobal Energy Monitor,CREA,E3G,Reclaim Finance,Sierra Club,SFOC,Kiko Network,CAN Europe,Bangladesh Groups,ACJCE,Chile SustentableGlobalEnergyMonitorBOOM AND BUST COAL 202

29、3REPORT|APRIL 2023|4GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEin most cases immediate greenhouse gas emission reductions.”To accom-plish this,countries need to translate announcements into plant-by-plant retirement

30、 plans as well as ramp up phase out commitments.Details on how current and future policies and funds will be implemented to impact coal retirement dates and ensure a swift and equitable end to new coal will be essential.The internationally-agreed coal power phase down is a work in progress.But whate

31、ver the case,2022 provided an object lesson in the endemic weaknesses of the coal sector.Despite some seemingly favorable conditionsoil and gas shortages,outages at nuclear plants,and severe weather events that curbed hydropowerthe“coal comeback”failed to mate-rialize in much of the world even if co

32、al is not yet dead.Key Developments of 2022Globally,the operating coal fleet grew by 19.5 GW in 2022.More than half(59%)of the 45.5 GW of newly commissioned capacity was in China.Out-side China,the global coal fleet continued to shrink,although at a slower rate than in previous years.After the Europ

33、ean Union retired a record high of 14.6 GW of coal capac-ity in 2021,the gas crisis and Russias invasion of Ukraine prompted a slowdown in coal retirements,with only 2.2 GW retired in the last year.Temporary restarts and extensions are generally expected to wind down in the next few years,and what a

34、ppeared to be a spike in coal capacity added only 1%to total EU coal generation in 2022.The U.S.led coal retirements with 13.5 GW retired in 2022.To meet national energy and climate goals,continued momentum away from coal needs to accelerate.The Group of Seven major industrial countries(G7)accounts

35、for 15%(323 GW)of the worlds operating coal capacity and none of the pre-con-struction coal capacity aside from one proposal in Japan.In 2022,the group pledged to phase out unabated coal and“predominantly”decarbon-ize their electricity sectors by 2035;each country should now implement a 2030 coal ph

36、ase out to ensure the G7 delivers.The Group of Twenty(G20)is home to 93%of the worlds operating coal capacity(1,926 GW)and 88%(305 GW)of the pre-construction coal capacity.In the past two years,the international community has committed US$45.2 billion for the coal-to-clean transition,with the bigges

37、t financial packages going to South Africa,Indonesia,and Vietnam.Although international public coal financing is essentially dry as a funding tap,support for coal can arrive through a variety of financial pipes.For the era of coal to come to an end,all these pipes must be shut off.BOOM AND BUST COAL

38、 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|5GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEIn 2022,99 private financial institutions adopted new or updated coal policies.However,the majority of policies are insufficient to align banks,insu

39、rers,and investors with climate science.Only 12 of these new or updated policies are strong enough to halt support for the developers of new coal mines and power plants,or set deadlines to end all coal pow-er-related finance in the timeframe required.All world regions outside Central Asia and China

40、saw a decline or pla-teau in the scale of new coal under consideration in 2022.There are no new coal projects under consideration in the European Union and North America.The scale of proposed new coal power capacity outside China is down by 84%since 2015,with reductions of 90%in OECD/EU and 83%in no

41、n-OECD countries.India sent mixed signals regarding its future coal use.The country has 28.5 GW of coal power capacity planned,up 2.6 GW in 2022,and 32 GW of coal power capacity under construction.Total coal power capacity under development(including announced,pre-permit,permitted,and construction s

42、tages)has been around 500 GW since 2019,a significant collapse from the 1,576 GW under development globally in 2014.The figure hit a record low of 479.4 GW in 2021,and inched back up to 537.1 GW in 2022,a 12%one-year increase led by China.For the first time since data collection began,total pre-cons

43、truction coal capacity has fallen below 100 GW in the world outside China(96.7 GW).Only 20 new coal plantproposals were initiated or restored in the entire world outside China in 2022.A handful of other projects previously under construction that had been presumed shelved or abandoned also appeared

44、back on the table in India.The development of overseas coal plants backed by China has slowed.19%(21 GW)of the approximately 108 GW of China-backed overseas coal capacity in pre-construction and construction as of Chinas September 2021 pledge has been cancelled or is presumed cancelled,but nearly 40

45、%moved forward.Phasing out operating coal power by 2040 would require an average of 117 GW of retirements per year,or four and a half times the capacity retired in 2022.An average of 60 GW must come offline in OECD countries each year to meet their 2030 coal phaseout deadline,and for non-OECD countr

46、ies,91 GW each year for their 2040 deadline.Accounting for coal plants under construction and in consideration(537.1 GW)would require even steeper cuts.BOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|6GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,A

47、CJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLECONTENTSExecutive Summary .3Key Developments of 2022 .4Global Data Summary.7Driving Forward:World Outside China Closes in on“No New Coal”.10Paris Climate Goals Becoming More Elusive .13Plant level progress.14Private Finance Coal Policy Trends in 2022 .16Changes to Chinas Overse

48、as Coal Projects .17China:Massive Surge in New Plant Permits.18What is driving new coal power projects?.19What are the implications for CO2 emissions?.20Are there alternatives?.20Indias Mixed Signals:Uncertain Future for the End of Coal .21The U.S.Leads the Way in Coal Retirements,as Momentum AwayFr

49、om Coal Needs to Continue Increasing.25Coal is Not Making a Comeback:Last Resort Measures in the European Union and United Kingdom .27Trkiye .30Ukraine.31Indonesia.31Pakistan.32Bangladesh.33Vietnam.34Philippines .35South Korea .35Japan .36Australia .37Northern Africa and the Middle East .37Sub-Sahar

50、an Africa .38Latin America .39Appendix .41BOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|7GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEGLOBAL DATA SUMMARY1.This only includes capacity retired at units 30 MW and above.Based

51、on provincial Development and Reform Commission and NDRC data available as of March 2023,at least 4.1 GW of coal capacity retired at units 4.5 MW and above in 2022.Chinas steady new coal plant additions(26.8 GW)offset coal plant retirements in the rest of the world(23.9 GW)in 2022 and resulted in an

52、 uptick in overall global capacity(Figure 1).In total,45.5 GW of global coal power capacity was commissioned in 2022 while 26 GW was retired,causing a net increase in the global coal fleet of 19.5 GW(black line).In 2021,the net increase was 12.6 GW,resulting from an equal number of new capacity addi

53、tions as in 2022(45.6 GW)but a greater number of global retirements(33 GW).Chinas new coal plant additions made up 59%of global additions in 2022(Figure 1).The country retired less than 3 GW of coal power capacity in 2022,one of its lowest annual retirements in more than a decade.1Some countries hav

54、e been scaling back their coal plans for years,leading global coal power capacity outside China to remain stable or decline every year since 2018(dotted line).However,this trend slowed in 2022 from the rate of retirements.After a record high of 14.6 GW retired in 2021,the European Union(EU)dropped t

55、o an almost record low of 2.2 GW retired in 2022as explained in the EU and United Kingdom(UK)section belowrepresenting only 8%of the global capacity retired that year.Meanwhile,the U.S.closed some of the gap with 13.5 GW retired in 2022.In total,17 countries retired coal capacity in 2022,the same nu

56、mber as in 2021.Outside of the U.S.and China,only four countries retired or converted more Figure 1:Newly operating and retired coal capacity and the net change,20002022202220202018201620142012201020082006200420022000010050-50Gigawatts Commissioning Retirements China India Other U.S.EU27 China Other

57、 Net change Net change w/o ChinaBOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|8GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEthan 1 GW of coal capacity during the year:Ukraine(1.3 GW),the United Arab Emirates(1.2 GW),South

58、Africa(1.2 GW),and the United Kingdom(1.1 GW).In 2022,Peru and the United Arab Emirates retired or converted their last operating coal plants,joining four other countries that have phased out coal(Austria,Belgium,Sweden,and Portugal).In total,14 countries commissioned new coal power in 2022.More tha

59、n half(59%)of the newly com-missioned capacity was in China(25.2 GW),with a remaining 16%in South Asia(India,Pakistan,and Bangladesh),11%in Southeast Asia(Vietnam,Philippines,Indonesia,and Cambodia),9%in East Asia(Japan and South Korea),and 5%in other regions.The annual capacity additions for many i

60、ndividual Chinese provinces topped the capacity additions of entire countries.Inner Mongolia(6 GW)surpassed India(3.5 GW)despite India being the country with the most coal commissioned in 2022 after China(Figure 2).In fact,Inner Mongolia nearly had more new capacity than the next two countries after

61、 China combined(India and Japan).Chinas dominance is expected to continue into 2023 and beyond when look-ing at the coal power capacity being developed.Figure 2:Coal capacity beginning operation in 2022 by country outside of China and by Chinese provinceCountryIndiaJapanPakistanVietnamTrkiyePhilippi

62、nesIndonesiaSouth KoreaBangladeshSouth AfricaCambodiaArgentinaZimbabwe0600040002000MegawattsChinese provinceInner MongoliaJiangxiAnhuiShanxiGuangxiShandongHubeiFujianHunanShaanxiChongqingLiaoningNingxiaXinjiangShanghaiGuangdongJiangsuHenanBOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|9GLOBAL ENERGY MONIT

63、OR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLETotal coal power capacity under development(includ-ing announced,pre-permit,permitted,and construc-tion stages)has been around 500 GW,plus or minus 50 GW,since 2019,a significant collapse fro

64、m the 1,576 GW under development globally in 2014.The figure hit a record low of 479.4 GW in 2021,and inched back up to 537.1 GW in 2022,a 12%one-year increase.China is responsible for this increase.In 2021,the capacity under development in China started exceed-ing the capacity under development in

65、the rest of the world for the first time in years(Figure 3).In 2022,this gap widened,with the capacity in China increasing by 38%(265.6 GW to 365.5 GW),and the capacity in the rest of the world decreasing by 20%(213.8 GW to 171.5 GW).Chinas share of coal under development increased from 55%in 2021 t

66、o 68%in 2022,meaning that China accounts for over two-thirds of the capacity under development in the world for the first time.As noted below,the same is true when looking at pre-con-struction capacity alone,where China now accounts for 72%of global pre-construction capacity.Figure 3:Coal capacity i

67、n construction and pre-construction in China and the rest of the world,201420222022202120202019201820172016201520140800600400200Gigawatts China Rest of the worldBOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|10GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADES

68、H GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEDRIVING FORWARD:WORLD OUTSIDE CHINA CLOSES IN ON“NO NEW COAL”2.Note:Figure excludes“mothballed”and“cancelled”coal capacity.The period since the 2015 Paris climate agreement was signed has seen a dramatic contraction in the scale of new coal under consideration globall

69、y.Over the last nine years,proposed coal capacity has shrunk by 72%.In 2022,this positive trend continued as almost all countries and regions experienced either an ongoing decline,or a plateau in the scale of new coal capacity under consideration.Despite clear signals that China would“strictly contr

70、ol”coal,its renewed coal power boom in 2022 offsets progress away from new coal in the rest of the world.Figure 4:Coal capacity and proposals by status,201420222 Operating Construction Announced Pre-permit Permitted Shelved RetiredChina202220212020201920182017201620152014010005001500GigawattsNon-OEC

71、D202220212020201920182017201620152014OECD/EU202220212020201920182017201620152014202220212020201920182017201620152014010005001500Gigawatts202220212020201920182017201620152014202220212020201920182017201620152014BOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|11GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,S

72、IERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEAs of January 2023,346.8 GW of pre-construction capacity remains under development globally.This includes 118.3 GW of announced new projects,117.7 GW at pre-permit status,and 110.8 GW with per-mits in place,distributed a

73、cross 33 countries.Of this 347 GW,however,China accounts for 72%(250 GW)(Figure 5),up from 58%last year.The rest of the world now has less than 100 GW of capacity proposed.Beyond China,18%of the remain-ing 346.8 GW of planned coal capacity(Figure 5)or nearly two-thirds(63%)of the non-China capacityi

74、s in the five countries with the next-largest capacities of pre-construction coal projects(India,Trkiye,Indonesia,Laos,and Mongolia).The final 10%is thinly spread across 27 countries,13 of which have only a single proposed plant still under consideration.Among these,five countriesMadagascar,Niger,Ta

75、n-zania,Ukraine,and Cambodiahave coal projects that were previously seeking financing from China,which has committed to end its overseas coal power financ-ing.These projects are small(only 2.2 GW in total capacity),providing a clear opportunity for replace-ment with clean energy alternatives.There a

76、re no new coal projects under consideration anywhere in either North America or the EU for the first time since data collection began,while no new coal plants have entered into construction across the OECD and EU since 2019.The remaining pro-posed projects in Australia,Japan,and Trkiye are all unlik

77、ely to proceed,leaving the OECD close to achiev-ing No New Coal.The OECD/EU as a whole is nearly at the milestone of having no new coal projects under consideration.Total capacity in the region has collapsed by 90%since 2015(Figure 6).The total pre-construction capacity in the OECD is 11.9 GW,accoun

78、ting for only 3%of global planned coal capacity.Only three countries left in the OECD/EU are still considering new coal capacity.Australia and Japan each have one coal project under consideration with small capacities,leaving only Trkiye with more than one proposed coal project.In the non-OECD count

79、ries outside China,the total planned coal capacity has decreased by 83%since Figure 5:Coal capacity in pre-construction by country,2022(Gigawatts)362910777 7250250 China Rest of the world India Trkiye Indonesia Laos MongoliaBOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|12GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RE

80、CLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLE2015(Figure 6),primarily due to a significant drop in Southeast Asia.In non-OECD countries,Vietnam saw most of its remaining planned coal capacity shelved or cancelled in 2022(17.7 GW),resulting in it drop

81、-ping out of the top five countries outside China for planned pre-construction projects.Brazil is now the only country with pre-construction capacity in all of the Americas.Between 2015 and 2023,18 non-OECD countries have scrapped their proposed coal projects and currently have no new projects under

82、 consideration.Of these,nine countries formally committed to No New Coal through becoming a member of the Powering Past Coal Alliance(PPCA)or No New Coal Power Compact(NNCPC)or signing the COP26 Coal to Clean Power Transition Statement.South-East Asia,which was traditionally considered as a center f

83、or new coal capacity outside China,has experienced a particularly dramatic shift away from new coal.Total planned capacity in the region has decreased by 86%since 2015,including 17%of the decline in the last year alone.South Asia(39 GW)has seen its pre-construction capacity collapse by 86%since 2015

84、 but still accounts for more than a third of all planned new coal outside China.This is principally due to Indias large number of planned projects.India saw a net increase of 2.6 GW of planned new coal over the course of 2022.However,over recent years multiple projects in India have been paused due

85、to unfavorable business conditions and the heightened risk of stranded investments,including some projects halted mid-construction.Bangladesh has reduced its total pre-construction capacity by 39%since last year,but still technically has 6.7 GW under consideration,despite electricity system overcapa

86、c-ity.Ongoing updates to the 2016 Integrated Power Sector Master Plan could increase Bangladeshs clean energy ambitions and shelve further pre-construction coal capacity.The Pakistan section below provides information on its announced pivot back to coal in February 2023.Figure 6:Coal capacity in pre

87、-construction by status in the OECD/EU and in non-OECD countries,excluding China,201420222022202120202019201820172016201520140500400300200100Gigawatts202220212020201920182017201620152014Non-OECD,excluding China2022202120202019201820172016201520140500400300200100GigawattsOECD/EU2022202120202019201820

88、17201620152014 Permitted Pre-permitted AnnouncedBOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|13GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLECentral Asia is the only region outside China that saw its planned coal capacity

89、grow over the course of 2022.Its pre-construction capacity grew signifi-cantly over the first half of 2022,though it declined slightly in the second half of the year as a result of changes in Mongolias new coal plans.This growth has been driven by developers in Mongolia,Uzbekistan,and Kyrgyzstan ann

90、ouncing or re-announcing pro-posed projects.Mongolias planned coal capacity has remained at a similar scale in recent years,despite experiencing project turnovers.This was the case in 2022,with a new proposal for a 0.4 GW addition to the Ulaanbaatar-3 plant.Almost in parallel,the three-unit(0.45 GW)

91、Ulaanbaatar-5 proposal was cancelled.Despite the considerable risks associated with con-structing new coal projects,Uzbekistan and Kyrgyz-stan have proposed previously shelved projects within 2022.These countries returned to the list of countries with remaining pre-construction capacity.Total planne

92、d capacity In Latin America and the Caribbean is at its lowest since 2015,with only 1.7 GW of pre-construction capacity remaining in Brazil.The African continent has a pre-construction capacity of 9.7 GW,accounting for only 3%of the global total.This capacity is distributed across eleven countries a

93、nd is comprised of mostly small projects.In six coun-tries,there is only one project under consideration,with the projects in Madagascar,Niger,and Tanzania relying on some form of Chinese support.For more information on how countries across the world are progressing,see E3Gs March 2023 briefings:Dri

94、ving forward:world outside China closes in on no new coal and Diverging pathways:Chinas new coal boom takes it on a detour.E3Gs introduction to what No New Coal means and No New Coal Tracker also provide more context and data.PARIS CLIMATE GOALS BECOMING MORE ELUSIVECoal-fired power generation is th

95、e largest source of energy-related CO2 emissions globally.To achieve the Paris climate agreements goal of limiting global temperature growth below 1.5 degrees,reducing the use of coal for power generation is the single most important source of emissions reductions in emis-sions pathways.To align wit

96、h that goal,modeling by the International Energy Agency and others finds OECD countries should eliminate coal power by 2030 and the rest of the world by 2040.In 2022,OECD coal plants continued to retire and announce retirements,inching towards align-ment with the 1.5 degrees pathway.The largest reti

97、rements and retirement announcements were made in Germany,the United States,Australia,and Poland.Romania,Slovenia,and the Czech Republic announced national phase out policies,although only Romania by 2030.The OECDs pro-jected coal power capacity in 2030 fell by 18 GW as a result.Chinas projected coa

98、l power capacity in 2030 grew by 128 GW due to the increase in newprojects and re-activation of previously shelved projects.In the rest of the non-OECD,projected coal power capacity in 2030 fell significantly,by 29 GW,due to projects being cancelled and shelved and few new projects being announced.T

99、he projected capacity fell the most in Vietnam,Bangladesh,and Indone-sia,while increasing in India.Looking at project-by-project status changes in 2022 without considering projections and country level commitments,the amount of planned coal-fired capacity in non-OECD countries,excluding China,fell b

100、y 23 GW,and Chinas increased by 126 GW.Globally,in 2022,around 25 GW received an announced close-by date of 2030.Even with the fall in coal plant development and use in some regions in 2022,the world is not on track for the steep reductions in coal power necessary to meet the Paris climate agreement

101、.Generally speaking,phasing out operating coal power by 2040 would require an BOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|14GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEaverage of 117 GW of retirements per year,or four a

102、nd a half times the capacity retired in 2022.An average of 60 GW must come offline in OECD countries each year to meet their 2030 coal phaseout deadline,and for non-OECD countries,91 GW each year for their 2040 deadline.Accounting for coal plants under construc-tion and in consideration(537.1 GW)wou

103、ld require even steeper cuts.As detailed in Boom&Bust Coal 2022,in the run-up to COP26 in Glasgow in November 2021,countries announced an unprecedented number of coal phase out,“no new coal,”“no new coal/fossil financing overseas,”and net zero emissions commitments.In 2022,the gap in global retireme

104、nts required over the next two decadesor 17years to be exactexpanded,with China still planning a major expansion,and other countries,especially OECD countries such as Japan and Korea,still planning to operate their coal power fleets far beyond the 2030 deadline for phase out in developed countries.A

105、s of January 2023:580 GW of capacityor 28%of global coal capac-ityhas a phase out date,while another 1,400 GW is covered by carbon neutrality targets but stops short of a phase out decision.Only 110 GW,or 5%of the operating fleet today,are not covered by either type of commitment,which may have seem

106、ed impossible just a decade ago.At the same time,the data shows that the world is far from heading decisively in the Net Zero direction,and not all coal phase out decisions are aligned with the Paris climate agreement goals.Assuming Germanys aspirational goal of phasing out coal“ideally”by 2030 can

107、be firmed up,and assuming the United States 2035 Clean Power goal will mean a coal phase out by 2030,330 GW,or 70%of OECD coal capacity,is scheduled to close by 2030.Outside the OECD,only 93 GW,or 6%of non-OECD coal capacity,has a closure date by 2040.At COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh in November 2022,gov

108、ernments were asked to revisit and strengthen the 2030 targets in their national climate plans by the end of 2023.They were also urged to accelerate efforts to phase down unabated coal power and phase out“inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.”The decision text recognized that the current global energy

109、crisis brings into focus the need to quickly transform energy sys-tems for greater security,reliability,and resilience by speeding up the transition to renewables during this crucial decade.Yet there is also a lot of work to do to translate national coal exit commitments into plant-by-plant retireme

110、nt plans.The promising new developments of 2022,including new Just Energy Transition Partnerships,must ensure that any emissions caps and plans are not only consistent with Net Zero targets,but also a 1.5 degree pathway and timely coal phase out.It is important to note that in many developing coun-t

111、ries,especially those heavily dependent on coal,a 2040 coal exit translates to a transition at record speedand brings up important equity considerations.The international community must support these countries in moving away from coal through provision of public and private clean energy finance,supp

112、ort to develop flexible grid infrastructure,and technical and capacity assistance to bolster regulatory and policy frameworks that accelerate the transition from coal toclean.Plant level progressTo measure progress on aligning plant-level plans for new capacity and retirements with the pledges and P

113、aris climate agreement goals,CREA and GEM projected global coal-fired capacity over time assum-ing(1)all coal power projects in active development are realized and(2)the plants that dont have an announced retirement or coal phase out date retire at the average age for each region to date.The Global

114、Coal Plant Tracker database provides insight into how the outlook for global coal power capacity has changed,and allows tracking progress BOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|15GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SU

115、STENTABLEtowards phasing out unabated coal in line with the 1.5 degree pathway.Coal phase out schedules are generally based on a 2018 report by Global Energy Monitor and Greenpeace,which developed regional pathways consistent with the projected coal-fired generation in the IPCC scenarios for holding

116、 global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.These projections are not realistic economic-financial scenarios,but rather illustrations of how industry plans are changingor not changingin response to economic and political developments.(More information about assumptions is available in Appendix C of Boom&

117、Bust Coal 2022;Chinas“pledge pathway”presumes the build out of proposed capacity out to 2030.)As Figure 7 demonstrates,while Chinas 2060 carbon neutrality target implies that most coal-fired capacity will need to be retired by 2050(black dashed line),the countrys power industry is still planning an

118、expansion in coal-fired capacity over this decade that takes the countrys capacity pathway(gray line)increasingly out of sync with the Paris-aligned trajectory(red dashedline).However,other non-OECD countries have not reversed course on making progress in scaling back future coal capacity.Although t

119、his progress slowed in 2022,it did not backtrack despite many claiming that coal was making a“comeback.”The pathway as of Jan-uary 2018 data estimated non-OECD coal capacity at 724GW by 2040,and this dropped to 541 GW as of January 2022 data,and to 513 GW under the cur-rent pathway(January 2023 data

120、).In other words,the projected non-OECD capacity by 2040 under“business as usual”dropped 29%in just five years.Taking into consideration pledges,non-OECD coal Figure 7:Historic and projected coal capacity by region(19902050),current pledges,and the gap to 1.5 degrees January 2023 pathway January 202

121、2 pathway Pledges pathway 1.5C pathwayChina01000500Non-OECD,excluding China0600400200OECD2040202020000600400200Global2040202020000200010005001500ProjectionsProjectionsProjectionsProjectionsOECD2040202020000600400200Global2040202020000200010005001500ProjectionsProjectionsProjectionsProjectionsNon-OEC

122、D,excluding China0600400200OECD2040202020000600400200Global2040202020000200010005001500ProjectionsProjectionsProjectionsProjectionsChina01000500Non-OECD,excluding China0600400200OECD2040202020000600400200Global2040202020000200010005001500ProjectionsProjectionsProjectionsProjectionsBOOM AND BUST COAL

123、 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|16GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEcapacity by 2040 is expected to drop to 417 GW.To close the gap to zero by 2040,more ambitious commit-mentsas well as much more planning,support,an

124、d implementationareneeded.OECD countries have also continued to make progress towards phasing out coal power,although they are still far from a 2030 phase out aligned with the Paris climate agreement goals.The pathway as of January 2018 data estimated OECD coal capacity at 447 GW by 2030,and this dr

125、opped to 334 GW as of January 2022 data,and to 316 GW under the current pathway(January 2023 data).These figures total a 29%drop in just five years.Accounting for OECD pledges,coal capacity is projected to fall to 300 GW by 2030.The decline is promising,but the 1.5 degree target requires a complete

126、coal power phase out in OECD countries no later than that date.The OECD countries with the largest projected coal power capacity in 2030 are the U.S.,Japan,South Korea,Trkiye,Germany,Poland,and Australia.Out of these stragglers,Trkiye is still planning the most sizable coal power expansion.Ultimatel

127、y,progress in many OECD and non-OECD countries has been offset by the continued announce-ments and construction starts for new projects in China.Comparing the“business as usual”pathways as of January 2022 data(yellow lines)with the current“business as usual”pathways(gray lines)makes this clear.For C

128、hina,last years projected pathway lies below this years projected pathway(yellow line below the gray line).For the OECD and non-OECD coun-tries excluding China,last years projected pathway lies above this years projected pathway,reflecting improvement for those countries(yellow line above the gray l

129、ine).In the end,when looking at the global picture,steeper cuts are required this year than were last year.Chinas proposed coal expansion means the Paris climate goals are becoming ever more elusive.Globally,the projected coal-fired capacity in 2030,if pledges are implemented,is around 2,241 GW,whil

130、e the amount of capacity consistent with a 1.5 degree pathway is estimated to be about two-thirds,or 1,470 GW.An additional 800 GW will need to be can-celled or retired to meet the emission budgets consis-tent with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees.PRIVATE FINANCE COAL POLICY TRENDS IN 2022In 2

131、022,99 private financial institutions adopted new or updated coal policies.The Reclaim Finance Coal Policy Tool now counts a total of 300 financiers with at least a basic coal policy.As in previous years,however,the great majority of 2022 policies are insufficient to align banks,insurers,and investo

132、rs with a trajectory of limiting planetary temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius.Only 12 of these new or updated policies are strong enough to halt support for the developers of new coal mines and power plants,or set deadlines to end all coal power-related finance by the dates required by the

133、 International Energy Agencys(IEA)net zero emissions scenario(2030 in the OECD and 2040 else-where).Among the significant new policies issued in 2022 are those from Lloyds Bank,which now has the strongest policy on restricting finance to coal developers among large UK financial institutions;the asse

134、t manager arm of Spanish group MAPFRE,which tightened its coal developer policy;and Agirc-Arrco,one of the major players in the French retirement system,which adopted a robust coal phase out policy in December2022.While the great majority of updates to existing policies represent an increase in ambi

135、tion,Italian bank UniCredit backtracked on its previous policy by introducing some exceptions to its requirement that its clients provide plans to phase out coal use by 2028.French asset management giant Amundi,part of the Crdit Agricole group,also introduced a loophole by weakening its commitment t

136、o exclude financing for coal developers.BOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|17GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEAdopting a strong coal policy is only step one for a bank that is committed to exiting th

137、e sector.The next vital step is for banks to actually apply their policies.Reclaim Finance research in early 2022 found that Crdit Agricole bank,which published a globally lead-ing coal policy in 2020,was not fully applying this pol-icy,including by continuing to finance coal developers like Glencor

138、e and Marubeni.The lack of mechanisms to ensure compliance with financial sector policies is an ongoing concern.One unfortunate trend that continued in 2022 saw companies decarbonizing their balance sheets by sell-ing coal plants to new owners,rather than closing the plants down via just transition

139、processes.In Novem-ber 2022,Malaysias Sembcorp Industries approved the US$1.5 billion sale of its Indian coal power stations,Bander and Muthukur Mandal,to an Oma-ni-owned company.Sembcorp claimed that the deal“accelerates the transformation of its portfolio from brown to green.”According to the Fina

140、ncial Times,the deal allows Sembcorp to avoid triggering higher interest payments on a sustainability-linked bond.The evasion of responsibility for the coal plants emissions is particularly egregious in this case as Sembcorp“will also finance the assets for the next 15 years because it said restrict

141、ions on non-green investing would mean any buyer could find it difficult to secure financing forcoal.”Interest among major global private financial players in promoting Just Energy Transition Partnerships(JETPs)continued in 2022.JETPs,which are one of the priorities for the Glasgow Financial Allianc

142、e for Net Zero(GFANZ),are focused on financing a just transi-tion to clean energy in heavily coal dependent coun-tries in Asia and Africa.At the G20 Summit in November 2022,a group of governments issued a joint statement noting that they would work to mobilize US$20 billion for a JETP for Indonesia,

143、half to come from donor governments and multilateral banks,and half from private banks and investors coordinated by GFANZ.The following month a similar statement was issued on a JETP for Vietnam which pledged to mobilize US$15.5 billion,also split equally between public and private sources.Additiona

144、l details are available in the Indonesia and Vietnam sections below.While an early shut down of coal power plants in Asia is essential for hitting a 1.5 degrees Celcius target,there remains much uncertainty over the terms on which private actors are willing to finance JETPs,how much new money donor

145、governments will provide,and how much host governments might push for JETPs to finance dirty energy such as fossil gas,bio-mass,and dirty hydrogen.None of the GFANZ mem-bers initially named as potential financiers of these JETPsincluding Bank of America,Citi,Deutsche Bank,HSBC,Macquarie,MUFG,and Sta

146、ndard Char-teredhave significant policies to end their support for coal developers,which casts doubt on the serious-ness of their commitment to financing just transitions out of coal.CHANGES TO CHINAS OVERSEAS COAL PROJECTSSince President Xis pledge to“not build new coal-fired power projects abroad”

147、was made in September 2021,the development of overseas coal plants backed by China has slowed but has not halted completely.Analysis of coal projects receiving either financing or engineering,procurement,and construction(EPC)contracts from Chinese firms estimates that 19%(21 GW)of the approximately

148、108 GW of China-backed overseas coal capacity planned at the time the announcement was made have been cancelled or presumed cancelled,mainly due to policy changes in countries like Vietnam,South Africa,and Indone-sia.This trend emphasizes the importance of host countries policies in driving which te

149、chnologies are prioritized in the energy transition.BOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|18GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEOn the flip side,nearly 40%of China-backed coal proj-ects have moved forward.

150、In the face of various forces,including the shake up of commodity prices in 2022,some countries chose to expedite or restart existing coal power developments.Pakistan,for instance,resurrected plans for China to finance the 300 MW Gwadar plant.Over 13 GW were commissioned in the last year.Another 7.6

151、 GW entered into construction,bringing the current capacity under construction to 18 GW.These projects are not considered new under Chinas pledge,having secured financing or been in construction at the time of the 2021 announcement.However,their addition to the global coal under devel-opment is sign

152、ificant and will be capacity that host countries will have to contend with phasing down by 2040 to align with climate targets.National plans to increase fossil fuel-based generation risk the diversion of vital financing to other polluting sources with high stranded asset risk,rather than from coal t

153、o clean.Chinas pledge and the National 3.The size of coal-fired power generating units varies widely.Note:The January 2023 Global Coal Plant Tracker identifies 91.5 GW of capacity with permits issued in 2022(125 units at 61 different plant sites).Some units without known permitting dates also appear

154、 to have moved into construction in 2022.Future Global Coal Plant Tracker releases will include refined 2022 data if more information is identified.4.The January 2023 Global Coal Plant Tracker identifies 11.7 GW of capacity with permits issued in 2021.Development and Reform Commissions Guidance on G

155、reening the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)still have the potential to remove 58 GW of coal projects backed by Chinese firms that remain in limbo.Cancelling the remaining proposed coal plants or converting them to renewable projects could avoid adding 265 million tonnes of CO2 emissions from coal powe

156、r annually.Of these projects,an estimated 60%(37 GW)have yet to reach financial closure and can be cancelled by gov-ernments and the other stakeholders involved to avoid stranded asset risks.The remaining 18 GW in early development stages could be converted to renewable energy to avoid adding 88 mil

157、lion tonnes of CO2 from coal annually.A September 2022 report by CREA and People of Asia for Climate Solutions titled 1-Year Later:Chinas Ban on Overseas Coal Power Projects and Its Global Climate Impacts provides additional context on the pledge.CHINA:MASSIVE SURGE IN NEW PLANT PERMITSCoal power pl

158、ant permitting,construction starts,and new project announcements accelerated dramatically in China in 2022,with new permits reaching the high-est level since 2015.The coal power capacity starting construction in China was six times greater than the rest of the world combined.50 GW of coal power capa

159、city started construction,a more than 50%increase from 2021.Many of these projects had their permits fast-tracked and moved to construction in a matter of months.A total of around 100 GW of new coal power projects were permitted,the equivalent of two large coal power plants per week.3 The amount of

160、capacity permitted more than quadrupled from 23 GW in 2021.4 Of the projects permitted in 2022,60 GW were not under construction in January 2023,but were likely to start construction soon,indicating even more construction starts in 2023.In total,86 GW of new coal power projects were initiated,more t

161、han doubling from 40 GW in 2021.26 GW of new coal power capacity was added to the grid in 2022,unchanged from 2021.Capacity addi-tions will likely accelerate in the next few years when the projects that broke ground in 2022 start to come online.Plant retirements slowed down further in 2022,with 4.1

162、GW of coal-fired capacity closed down.Cur-rent policy encourages either retrofitting older plants or keeping them online as-is for back-up capacity,rather than retirement and deconstruction.BOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|19GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIK

163、ONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEWhat is driving new coal power projects?The Chinese central governments policy on new coal power plants has been gradually loosened since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020.In summer 2022,the country experienced a record-b

164、reaking heatwave and drought that led to very low availability of hydropower and increased electric-ity demand for air conditioning.This situation led to concerns about the sufficiency of generating capacity to meet peaks in electricity demand.Those concerns seem to have prompted central and provinc

165、ial gov-ernments to pursue an increase in coal power plant development as a costly and sub-optimal solution,especially in major electricity demand centers and provinces neighboring them.As prices for imported gas skyrocketed in 2022,the coastal provinces that have relied on gas-fired power plants to

166、 cover demand peaks seem to be replacing or at least building alternatives for gas power.Some large wind and solar power developments in remote areas require new thermal power to regulate the voltage and frequency of the grid.An additional enabling factor is that despite impres-sive acceleration in

167、clean energy installations,the year-over-year power generation additions still havent reached the level where they match annual growth in electricity demand,resulting in continued growth in demand for power generation from coal.The point when all demand growth is covered from clean sources is howeve

168、r likely to be reached soon,as the targets for annual wind and solar installations,in par-ticular,keep increasing.While Chinas National Energy Administration has supported an increase in coal power development,it also said in February 2022 that new coal power plants should not be permitted solely fo

169、r the purpose of bulk power generation,but only to support grid stability or the integration of renewable energy.While some of the new coal power projects follow this rationale,many do not.Of Chinas six regional grids,the South and East grid are the only ones that dont suffer from a clear thermal po

170、wer overcapacity problem.Yet,50%of newly announced projects and 40%of construction starts took place in the grids with overcapacity.The provinces permitting a large amount of new coal power plants try to justify the projects as“sup-porting”power capacity to ensure grid stability and renewable energy

171、 integration.These justifica-tions dont hold water,however,as the plants are intended to run at baseload utilization,and these specific provinces are laggards in growing clean energy generation to meet their demand growth.Currently,local governments are allowed to issue permits with very little,if a

172、ny,scrutiny or justifica-tion,and they are rushing to permit as much new coal capacity as possible while this remains the case.Local governments are always keen on any kind of new construction project,as they bring in economic activity and demand for construction materials and services from local st

173、ate-owned enterprises while the risks are borne by the central government-controlled banking system.New coal power projects dont seem attractive to developers.However,encouragement from the central government to build more coal-fired capacity creates an expectation that investors will be made whole,

174、for example through cuts to coal prices or increases to electricity tariffs,increasing profitability.At the very least,central government-controlled banks will absorb any losses.The government is also preparing capacity payments for coal power plants,and the anticipation of such payments can make in

175、vestments more attractive.BOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|20GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEWhat are the implications for CO2 emissions?The massive addition of new coal-fired capacity doesnt nece

176、ssarily mean that coal use or CO2 emis-sions from the power sector will increase in China.Provided that growth in non-fossil power generation from wind,solar,and nuclear continues to accelerate,and electricity demand growth stabilizes or slows down,power generation from coal could peak and decline.P

177、resident Xi has also pledged that China would reduce coal consumption in the 202630 period.This would mean a declining utilization rate of Chinas vast coal power plant fleet,rather than a continued growth in coal-fired power generation.The Chinese government is actively considering the introduction

178、of capacity payments for coal-fired power plants,which could make falling utilization more palatable for plant owners.Not only would it be possible to earn revenue on the electricity generated,but also through the regulated capacity provided to the system.But even so,hundreds of brand-new coal power

179、 plants will make meeting Chinas climate commitments more complicated and costly.The politically influential owners of the plants have an interest in protecting their assets and avoiding a rapid build-out of clean energy and phase out of coal.While China is making rapid progress in scaling up clean

180、energy,the countrys power system remains dependent on coal power capacity for meeting electricity peak loads and managing the variability of demand and clean power supply.The continued addition of new coal power capacity implies insuffi-cient emphasis on overcoming the power system and power market

181、constraints that perpetuate dependence on coal.The worst-case scenario is that the pressure to make use of the newly built coal power plants prevents a steep fall in utilization and leads to a moderation in Chinas clean energy buildout and/or the promotion of energy-intensive industries to consume t

182、he elec-tricity.This scenario could mean a major increase in Chinas CO2 emissions over this decade,undermining the global climate effort,and could even put Chinas climate commitments in danger.Are there alternatives?While many of the recently permitted projects cannot be justified under the policy o

183、f coal power playing a“supporting”role,the wave of new projects does show a real challenge:China is making rapid progress in scaling up clean energy,but the power system remains dependent on coal power capacity for meeting elec-tricity peak loads and managing the variability of demand and clean powe

184、r supply.As China needs to start reducing coal-fired power gen-eration and electricity demand for cooling increases,other solutions to manage the variability of demand and clean power supply are needed.They include increased investment in electricity storage,flexibility,and transmission within grid

185、regions.The growth in peak loads could be effectively mitigated through strengthened energy efficiency requirements for A/C units and for new buildings,and by introducing a pro-gram of large-scale energy efficiency improvements for existing buildings.BOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|21GLOBAL

186、 ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEINDIAS MIXED SIGNALS:UNCERTAIN FUTURE FOR THE END OF COALIndia has the most operating and proposed coal plant capacity in the world after China.In 2022,the coun-try sent mixed si

187、gnals regarding its future coal use.While the government has committed to eventually phase down coal,it has not set a formal timeline.In September 2022,Indias Power Minister shared that India would add nearly 56 GW of coal power capac-ity by 2030,nearly a quarter of the existing 234 GW fleetabsent a

188、 drop in the cost of electricity storage.The move is intended to prioritize“providing reli-able power to spur economic growth”in addition to investments in renewable energy.In January 2023,the government asked utilities to hold off on retiring coal plants until 2030 to meet electricity demand,after

189、last years unusually early and brutal heat wave caused power shortages and affected millions.The Coal Ministry continues in tandem to open new coal blocks for commercial auction.The temporary coal shortage last year emboldened the Indian govern-ment to press ahead with plans to develop 99 new coal p

190、rojects with production of 427 million tonnes per year.Already in 2023,a tranche of new coal auctions continues to acquire bidders.The prospect of mining new coal blocks is in strategic conflict with the govern-ments pledge to achieve net zero emissions by 2070 and the fact that 36%of operating capa

191、city at existing mines goes unused.In terms of promising coal power phase-down signals,India only commissioned 3.5 GW of new coal power capacity in 2022.Excluding a pandemic slump in 2020,this was the lowest annual addition since a 2014 peak at 20.8 GW(Figure 8).From 2015 to 2022,Indian Figure 8:New

192、ly operating and retired coal capacity in India by year,200020222022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007200620052004200320022001200002010515Gigawatts Commissioned Retired Net changeBOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|22GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERR

193、A CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEpre-construction coal power capacity also decreased by nearly 88%,from 239.1 GW to 25.9 GWand up just 2.6 GW in 2022,to 28.5 GW(Figure 9).For the first time in years,zero new non-captive coal plants were granted environmenta

194、l clearance in 2022.Only one captive coal plant,the fiercely opposed JSW Utkal Steel planta 900 MW coal and“by product”gas based plant in Odishareceived an environmental clearance in April 2022(i.e.was permitted).As a pre-vious analysis by Indias Legal Initiative for Forest and Environment notes,the

195、 trickle in new project approv-als reflects how difficult it is becoming to set up new coal plants in India.It was also a record low year for new coal plants breaking ground:the 120 MW Bodal captive coal plant appeared to be the only site where construction on a new project began in 2022.Figure 9:Co

196、al capacity in construction and pre-construction in India,201420222022202120202019201820172016201520140300200100Gigawatts Construction Permitted Pre-permit AnnouncedBOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|23GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGL

197、ADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEHowever,it is clear that new coal continues to be actively considered in India.The country has 28.5 GW of coal power capacity planned,about a third of which is already permitted,and 32 GW of coal power capac-ity under construction.Tamil Nadu,Odisha,and Uttar Prade

198、sh lead the way in terms of new coal power development overall(Figure 10).A few new proposed coal plants sought out and/or were granted Terms of Reference(ToR)in 2022.For example,in July 2022,the Chief Minister of Rajasthan announced proposals to set up new coal capacity at the Chhabra Thermal Power

199、 Station and Kalisindh Thermal Power Station in a move to help the state“become self-reliant in power generation”and also“increase employment opportunities and local area development.”Various pre-construction projects previously consid-ered to be shelved or cancelled also appeared reacti-vated,inclu

200、ding at the proposed Basundhara,Bithnok,Deenbandhu Chhotu Ram,Lara,Raghunathpur,and Udangudi power stations.There were also signs of momentum to potentially unblock various“stressed”coal plant sites,which meant halted construction projects were considered to be revived.Back in 2018,a special parliam

201、entary committee identified 34 stressed power assets totalling 40 GW that were strug-gling or otherwise not making progress to be commis-sioned.Despite efforts by the government,lenders,and project supporters over years,the underlying issues have generally persisted over the years,such as cost overr

202、uns,coal supply disruptions,and a lack of power purchase agreements.Within the last year,Odisha saw the stalled Jharsuguda Ind-Barath plant acquired by JSW Energy,which is now reportedly expected to be fully operational within two years,and the Malibrahmani plant acquired by Jindal,which is reported

203、ly projected to provide power to a steel plant in Angul within a year.The Thermal Expert Appraisal Committee also regranted ToR for the stalled KSK Mahanadi Power Project in Chhattisgarh as the plant moved through insolvency proceedings.In Andhra Pradesh,the Meenakshi Energy Thermal Power Project ap

204、peared on track to be acquired by Vedanta.Figure 10:Coal capacity in construction and pre-construction in India by state,2022010987654321GigawattsTamil NaduUttar PradeshOdishaTelanganaJharkhandMadhya PradeshChhattisgarhBiharRajasthanWest BengalMaharashtraKarnatakaAndhra PradeshHaryana Construction P

205、ermitted Pre-permit AnnouncedBOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|24GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEIndia faces a very real crunch that requires careful near-and long-term planning.In March 2023,for t

206、he second year in a row,India invoked an emergency law to force power plants that run on imported coal,which are typically uncompetitive compared to power generated from cheap domestic coal,to maximize out-put ahead of an expected surge in power demand this spring and summer.As a CREA analysis highl

207、ighted in May 2022,the emergency measures reflect two things:First,the country has enough power generation capacity,and second,the domestic coal based power stations arent stocking enough coal before summer peaks and monsoons when demand is high and there is restricted coal mining and transport capa

208、city.In other words,related power deficits are the result of a management crisis rather than a fuel shortage or power generation infrastructure shortage.At the same time,the country also faces the worsening public health and environmental impacts of coal.The envi-ronment ministry introduced more str

209、ingent pollution standards for coal plants in 2015,but the deadline to comply with the standards was pushed back yet again in September 2022.As Manthan Adhyayan Kendra highlighted,poor coal ash management is impacting local communities and power generation.The coun-try has only retired 15.7 GW to da

210、te.With more than 30 GW of operating coal capacity at units above 30 years old,India should pursue mechanisms to retire old,polluting units as soon as possible and repurpose the sites to support renewables.Ultimately,India has the opportunity to accelerate the global coal to clear energy transition

211、under G20 leadership,addressing the twin needs of energy access and energy security.As is the case for China and other countries,simultaneously investing in both coal and renewables will only result in a messier energy transi-tion for India.It is time for the country to finalize and implement a bold

212、 no-new-coal plan to ensure energy and economic development plans are in line with its climate change and net zero commitments.Indias targets for clean power capacity could enable the country to start phasing down coal well before 2030,even assuming power demand growth continues.With the low costs o

213、f renewable energy,it is crucial to anticipate the closures of existing coal plants and unprofitable mines to avoid stranded coal assets and unnecessary hardships for coal communities.Figure 11:Changes in project status in 2022 for coal capacity under development in India by state Commissioned Const

214、ruction restarted/started New project re-activated/started Permitted043210.54.53.52.51.5GigawattsOdishaChhattisgarhTamil NaduAndhra PradeshWest BengalHaryanaUttar PradeshJharkhandBiharTelanganaGujaratRajasthanBOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|25GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,S

215、IERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLETHE U.S.LEADS THE WAY IN COAL RETIREMENTS,AS MOMENTUM AWAYFROM COAL NEEDS TO CONTINUE INCREASINGThe U.S.continues to transition away from coal,with over 13.5 GW retired in 2022 alone.According to the Sierra Club,139 GW h

216、as ceased burning coal since 2010.Of the 212 GW still operating today,another 37%has been committed to retire prior to 2031.Over 19 GW of announced retirements were made in 2022 alone,which was greater than five of the previous six years.Moreover,no new coal plants have come online in the U.S since

217、2014,and no new plants are being proposed.However,despite the steady progress toward retiring existing coal,the U.S.still operates the third largest coal fleet in the world behind China and India.The White House has announced a goal of an 80%carbon-free power sector by 2030.Toward that goal,Sierra C

218、lub and partners are advocating to ensure all coal in the country is retired no later than 2030.This requires an average of 17 GW of capacity retirement announcements each year prior to the end of the decade.The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)offers incen-tives to manufacture and deploy small and

219、large-scale clean energy and storage,as well as programs to alleviate existing coal debt and tax credits to site clean energy projects in communities currently and histor-ically reliant on coal.With the passage of the IRA,an Figure 12:Newly operating and retired coal capacity in the U.S.(20002022)an

220、d planned retirements through 2035 Commissioned Retired Planned retirements2035203420332032203120302029202820272026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120000-20-10GigawattsBOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|26GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,

221、CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEestimated 99%of coal plants are now more expensive to run than new solar and wind.However,there is much to be done to ensure that the funding in the IRA is distributed properly and that utilitie

222、s that are entrenched with the fossil fuel industry take advan-tage of these federal programs.At the same time,the U.S.must continue to act over the next few years to strengthen and enforce federal pollution safeguards at coal power plants,invest in transitioning communities beyond coal,and acceler-

223、ate the adoption of renewable energy.In 2022,advo-cates called on the Environmental Protection Agency(EPA)to pursue a comprehensive regulatory strategy to address power sector pollution,and by early 2023,expressed concern that the agency was falling behind on nine of ten key power sector rules.Witho

224、ut picking up the pace,the administration risks leaving critical steps either unfinished at the end of President Bidens first term or subject to the Congressional Review Act.The U.S.,like many other countries,must also ensure its coal fleet is not replaced by new gas-fired capacity.The impacts of co

225、als legacy in the country remain a challenge.In 2022,even though many more mine closures are expected than investments,several new coal mines opened,including the Longview coal project in West Virginia.Other troubling cases such as the 2022 deal for a cryptocurrency mining operation at the Merom Gen

226、erating Station in Indiana could keep power projects online beyond their initial targeted retirements.Other plants,including the Edgewater Generating Station in Wisconsin,have also had their upcoming retirement dates pushed back by several years due to some combination of supply chain dis-ruptions,g

227、rid reliability issues,and delays in project conversion.Figure 13:U.S.historic and projected coal capacity(20152030)and the gap to 1.5 degrees20302029202820272026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620150300200100Gigawatts Operating capacity Operating capacity based on planned retirements Operati

228、ng capacity decrease needed in a 1.5 degree pathwayBOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|27GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEIndustry plans to extend the life of the U.S.coal fleet through Carbon Capture

229、 and Storage(CCS)have not,as of yet,proven to be successful.For example,the Petra Nova CCS project at the Parish Generating Station in Texas has been on-again off-again for over a decade,with NRG Energy declaring the project uneconomical in 2021 and disposing of their shares in 2022.(See“The Role Of

230、 Clean Coal Technologies In Decarbonizing The Coal Power Sector”in Boom&Bust Coal 2022.)Despite these failing pilot projects,CCS proposals are increasing and gaining traction due to funding in the IRA.The proposed CONSOL Energy Mining Complex plant in Pennsylvania was lauded as an“advanced carbon-ne

231、gative power plant”when it was initially funded through the US Department of Energy(DOE)Coal FIRST program,and it was the only coal project in the US under development in the last year.CON-SOL claimed that its technology could result in a zero emissions coal plant on the market by 2030.A danger-ous

232、promise,the project exemplified how the pursuit of“clean coal”takes time and funding away from renewable alternatives.As of January 2023,the project was presumed shelved but has not been confirmed as cancelled.New reports continue to highlight the urgent need to phase coal out.For example,groups dem

233、onstrated that the utility industry is violating coal ash regula-tions in every state where coal is burned,and that U.S.coal plants are responsible for 3,800 premature deaths a year due to fine particle pollution from smokestacks.In November 2022,the Gavin plant in Ohio became the first coal plant o

234、rdered by the EPA to halt coal ash dumping in unlined ponds.COAL IS NOT MAKING A COMEBACK:LAST RESORT MEASURES IN THE EUROPEAN UNION AND UNITED KINGDOMThe European Union(EU)and United Kingdom appear to have ended the development of coal-fired power stations:there are currently no coal power plants i

235、n pre-construction and just one project under construc-tion.While the gas crisis prompted a slowdown in coal retirements in 2022,the EU banned imports of Russian coal and phased down imports of Russian gas and oil after the countrys invasion of Ukraine,as well as stepped up commitments to build rene

236、wables.An unprecedented amount of solar power capacity was built in the EU,with 41.4 GW connected to the grid and significant growth driven by prosumer installations.Still,the gas crisis prompted seven countries to permit to restart or extend operations at 26 coal-fired units due to energy security

237、concerns19(73%)of those in Germany.But thanks to ample solar and wind power,combined with a mild European winter,these units had low generation rates.What appeared to be a spike in coal capacity added only 1%to total EU coal gener-ation in 2022.Last year,two additional crises created a 7%deficit in

238、EU power generation:a once in 500 years drought reduced hydro generation,and outages at French nuclear plants contributed to the lowest nuclear gen-eration since at least 2000.Nevertheless,the EU filled much of the shortfall with wind and solar generation,according to Ember.Coal generation,meanwhile

239、,comprised only one-sixth of the shortfall,which boosted generation 28 TWh,a 6.7%increase since 2021(419 TWh to 447 TWh).The anticipated boom in coal plant restarts also failed to materialize in much of the region.The Austrian Parliament voted against a temporary reopening of the Mellach power stati

240、on and other power stations carried through with planned retirements,including one unit of the Megalopoli power station in Greece and the Mintia-Deva power station in Romania.In the UK,retired capacity of coal-fired power stations dou-bled from 15 GW in 2015 to over 30 GW in 2022,with no backtrackin

241、g in 2022.In Germany,it more than doubled from 12 GW to 25 GW in the same time period.BOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|28GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEThe regions temporary restarts and extensio

242、ns are also generally expected to wind down in 2023 and 2024,and the rebound in retirements in the next few years could make up for the lower than expected retirements in 2022(Figure 14).So far,an additional 60 GW of capacity is expected to be retired by 2030.Although some of this capacity is slated

243、 for replace-ment by nonrenewable and uneconomical alterna-tives,like LNG and biomass,renewable developments promise long-term,reliable potential for the region.Despite the overwhelming majority of European coun-tries only considering and engaging in very short-term coal measures so far,there are a

244、few exceptions to the rule.For example,in Hungary,which has a 2025 coal exit date,the possibility of extending the lifetime of the lignite-fired generation units at the Mtra plant until the end of 2029 is being considered,but this would hardly qualify as an unavoidable,short-term measure and must be

245、 abandoned.In Greece,which now has a 2028 coal exit date,the government recently announced that the new Ptolemaida V lignite-fired power unit could remain in the system as a strategic coal reserve unit after 2028.All told,four countries have phased out coal(Austria,Belgium,Sweden,and Portugal)and th

246、e majority of nations have a coal exit planned.But voluntary commitments may not be as strong of an indicator as was once hoped.A few years ago,Frances 2022 phase out target appeared within reach.But over 2.5 GW remains in operation in January 2023.A supervisor at the Emile Huchet plant,which rehire

247、d workers for a November 2022 recommissioning,called the decision Figure 14:Planned coal capacity retirements in EU+UK by year(as of January 2022 versus January 2023)Pre-invasion retirement plans(20222025)Actual capacity retired in 2022 and current retirement plans(20232025)2025202420232022010515Gig

248、awattsBOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|29GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEa“necessary evil.”Times of crisis,such as that caused by Russias invasion of Ukraine,can easily throw a spanner in the work

249、s for fragile,non-binding policies.Although a steeper decline in coal capacity is needed to align with a phase out of all coal in the EU and UK by the end of 2030(Figure 15),the region is expected to continue as one of the leaders in the worlds tran-sition away from coal.In 2022,a report found that

250、the majority of European countries had significantly stepped up their ambition in terms of renewable energy deployment since 2019,while decreasing planned 2030 fossil fuel generation to shield them-selves from geopolitical threats.With the exception of a few very public cases in the UK and Germanywh

251、ere a new coal mine was approved and a large mine expandedcoal output in Europe continues to fall.Figure 15:EU+UK historic and projected coal capacity(20152030)and the gap to 1.5 degrees2030202920282027202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015010050150Gigawatts Operating capacity Operating ca

252、pacity based on planned retirements Operating capacity based on planned retirements plus phase-out commitments Operating capacity decrease needed in a 1.5 degree pathwayBOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|30GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,B

253、ANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLETRKIYETrkiye ranks third in the world for proposed coal power capacity under development,behind only China and India.As of 2022,around 11 GW of projects are announced,pre-permitted,or permitted.But all of these projects have struggled to obtain financing,and o

254、perating and planned projects have suffered a series of legal setbacks.Just one 1.3 GW coal-fired power stationthe Emba Hunutlu plantwas synchronized to the grid in 2022(potentially one of the last overseas coal plants financed by Chinese institutions).The fate of a dozen other projects hangs in the

255、 balance.Trkiyes Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources has signaled a shift towards more sustainable energy sources.By 2035,it plans to add over 65 GW of wind and solar capacity to the grid and only 3.2 GW of coal capacity.The discrepancy between projects currently under development(around 11 GW)

256、and the Ministrys projects(3.2 GW)suggests that a considerable number of projects could be cancelled within the decade.This would continue a trend since 2016 when Trkiye began to cancel coal capacity,or at least ensure projects were not actively under consideration so they could be pre-sumed cancell

257、ed,with greater urgency.Air pollution,water pollution,and concerns about the climate crisis have contributed to the loss of the coal industrys social license to operate.According to a recent survey,two thirds of the population believes that coal fired power generation needs to be substi-tuted by cle

258、aner options.In October 2022,a report from the Climate Change,Policy,and Research Associ-ation,an interdisciplinary NGO in Trkiye,found that the ayrhan plant was out of compliance with flue gas regulations and burning coal from an unpermitted mine.The plant was also at risk of imminent collapse.The

259、Yunus Emre plant,which is fully constructed but unable to operate because the plants boiler is unsuited for the coal in the area,remains standing as a dead investment.The initiatives to sell the plant have failed several times this year,and Yldzlar Hold-ing bought the plant,but the details of the pu

260、rchase remain unknown.At the same time,the Afin-Elbistan A plant continues to operate without fulfilling its legal responsibilities in accordance with environmental legislation,all while initiating an application for the construction of two new 344 MW coal units at the site.It is still unclear how t

261、he earthquake on February 6,2023 affected the Afin A and B power plants in Kahramanmara,the epicenter of the humanitarian crisis,but the Turkish Office of Strategy and Budget estimates that the public and private electricity sectors in the region incurred damages totalling around 570 million TL(US$3

262、0 million).Like in many other parts of the world,Trkiyes courts continue to play a role in determining the fate of proposed coal projects.The Kahramanmara Admin-istrative Court blocked the Afin-Elbistan C plant(the decision is on appeal),and Trkiyes Energy Market Regulatory Authority revoked the gen

263、eration license of the Ilgn plant.Ilgn was also one of two projects with precarious Chinese financing involvement since Chinas September 2021 overseas funding pledge;the other,the Kirazldere power complex,secured an EPC contract with Energy China over two years ago and has not had any apparent devel

264、opments since.Financing also continues to be a challenge broadly,with many“announced”projects still lacking the private funding that they seek.Between 2013 and 2018,operating coal capacity in Trkiye increased by 50%,from 12.5 to 18.8 GW.Since 2018,the increase in coal capacity has significantly slow

265、ed down,reaching 20.8 GW operating by 2022.The coal industrys recent struggles suggest that many new projects may ultimately be shelved and aban-doned,so operating coal capacity in Trkiye may have arguably reached its peak despite pending plans.Despite mounting environmental problems,the Turkish Min

266、ister of Environment,Urbanization,and Climate Change announced at COP27 that emissions from the country would not peak until 2038,effectively delaying the countrys energy transition and broader net zero target established as 2053 just one year prior.In addition,the risk of coal mine expansions to fe

267、ed the existing coal power capacity remains a concern.In BOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|31GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEOctober 2022,a mine explosion in Amasra killed over 40 workers,and trapp

268、ed a dozen more,in one of the worst coal mining disasters in recent years.The inci-dent provided a stark reminder of the deadly hazard that coal mine methane poses to local communities,in addition to its climate impact.The countrys ongoing mine projects continue to face strong local opposition.UKRAI

269、NEEven before Russias invasion of Ukraine in February 2022,its fleet was struggling with high incidences of operational failure and a lack of coal supplies.Several coal-fired power stations,many built before 1973,were already facing a half-century of wear and tear and operating at a limited capacity

270、.Coal supplies from the Donbass region stopped almost entirely in mid-2014 and 2015 due to the wreckage of coal mines and transportation infrastructure following Russias seizure of Crimea.In the years since,production data in the Donbass has remained spotty.Russian attacks have continued to cause si

271、gnificant damage to Ukraines energy infrastructure.Russia fired more than 1,000 missiles at substations,trans-formers,and power stations in Ukraine in October and November 2022 alone.Every thermal power station in the country has been impacted.Russian occupiers took control of four of Ukraines coal

272、plants in 2022:the Luganskaya,Myronivskyi,Vuglegirska,and Zaporizhia power stations.Several other coal plants are in the hot battle areas.Although Ukraine defied Russia and initiated electricity exports to the EU to help with energy shortfalls in neighbor-ing countries,exports had to be scaled back

273、following missile strikes in the fall.In December 2022,Ukraines energy deficit was estimated at around 2.5 GW,and by March 2023,it appeared resolved.Damage to infrastructure and the resulting grid volatil-ity has resulted in blackouts across the country,which also impacted district heating and water

274、 supplies in many cities.The operational capacity of coal plants in the country was more than halved between January 2022 and January 2023,and the true generation capac-ity was likely even lower.The Burshtyn plant(2 GW pre-war)in western Ukraine,which had operated as an independent energy island for

275、 many years,was re-synchronized to the national grid in early 2022 and is now vital to the countrys energy security.Despite incurring major damage from rocket strikes,Burshtyn was contributing capacity to the national electricity system at the end of the year.Following announcements in 2021 by the g

276、overnment and DTEK,the biggest private investor in the coun-trys energy sector,Ukraine committed to phase out coal between 20352040.Even as Russian hostilities continue,the Ukrainian government and its National Council for the Recovery of Ukraine kickstarted plans for a green reconstruction after th

277、e war.As Ecoaction writes,stakeholders must ensure that coal mining towns are not only on the front line of the countrys resistance,but also at the heart of a vision to rebuild a fairer,safer,and greener Ukraine.In February 2023,DTEKs CEO also summarized:“We should think about what Ukraine will be l

278、ike after the victory,about its future as a post-war country.I am convinced that Ukraine should become the platform for scaling all innovations and global technologies in reconstruction.”INDONESIAIndonesia is one of the worlds largest coal producers and consumers.In 2022,Indonesias operating coal ca

279、pacity increased 3%from 39.4 GW to 40.6 GW,and is up 60%from 25.4 GW in 2015.The country also had 18.8 GW of coal power considered under construction by the end of 2022,an amount exceeding all other countries except China and India.Some of this capac-ity appeared on the cusp of commercial operation,

280、BOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|32GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEincluding units at Jawa-4,Jawa Tengah,Lontar Exp,and Sulsel Barru 2 that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources(MEMR)classi

281、fied as“achieve-ments”in 2022.It has long been clear that Indonesia would not move away from coal without the aid of the international community,so 2022 was a breakthrough year for the country.In November 2022,a Just Energy Transition Partnership(JETP)promised US$20 billion in finan-cial support(see

282、 Private finance coal policy trends in 2022).While the details are set for release sometime in 2023,the JETP aims to peak power sector emissions by 2030,faster than the initial target of 2037,and to cap CO2 emissions levels about a quarter lower than previously expected by the same time.It is one of

283、 five different Energy Transition Mechanisms(ETMs)being implemented,with others being led by the Asia Development Bank,the national electricity company PLN,the governments Indonesia Investment Author-ity,and the state-owned infrastructure company PT Sarana Multi Infrastruktur(Persero).It is still un

284、clear how all these schemes will function collectively.The ambitious measures and committed funds are short of what is required in a 1.5 degrees Celsius pathway but are a welcome sign of progress.Between the coal capacity in construction and pre-construction still in the mix,Indonesia may still be a

285、 ways away from seeing its last coal plant com-missioned.Although more than 8 GW of coal was cancelled in 2022,the country still has around 7 GW of coal capacity in pre-construction and 8 GW of shelved plans.Recent developments do not guarantee it will all be cancelled.In fact,the JETP reaffirmed a

286、moratorium on“new”on-grid coal power genera-tion,but allows exemptions for captive coal plants in accordance with a key presidential regulation issued in September 2022(Perpres 112/2022)and coal plants previously identified in the Electricity Supply Business Plan(RUPTL)for 20212030.Around 13 GW(58%)

287、of the capacity under construc-tion and in pre-construction is at proposed“captive”coal plants,meaning“off-grid”plants that exclusively power industries like aluminum smelters(like the proposed 2.2 GW Adaro plant)and processing facilities for minerals like cobalt and nickel that are used in electric

288、 vehicle and battery supply chains.Industrial Parks are national strategic projects for Indonesia,but as it stands,the lack of strategic and sustainable planning around meeting power demand from such projects could become a real challenge for the coun-trys net zero ambitions.For China,a major invest

289、or of captive coal in Indonesias industrial sector,the ongoing developments have been running counter to its pledges to stop supporting overseas coal plants and green BRI investments.PAKISTANPakistans coal fleet boomed from a mere 150 MW in 2016 to more than 7.6 GW by early 2023.An additional 0.7 GW

290、 is under construction.Due to its dependence on energy imports and a financial crisis in 2022,Pakistan was particularly susceptible to fuel shortages,soaring LNG costs,and numerous blackouts.In July 2022,the government reportedly decided to convert its existing power plants to run on domestic,as opp

291、osed to imported,sources of coal.In the last year,2.6 GW of coal capacity was com-missioned at the Port Qasim Lucky,ThalNova,Thar BlockI,and Thar Energy Limited plants.Construction also appeared to begin at two small captive coal plants:a 40 MW expansion at the Faisalabad Sitara Chemical power plant

292、,and 36.5 MW at the Sheikhupura plant to supply power to a Mughal Steel project.The country has another 4 GW of pre-construction capacity at various stages of development.Previously rumored to be replaced with a solar plant,the pro-posed 300 MW coal-fired Gwadar plant is expected to move forward wit

293、h Chinese financing.The proj-ect flies in the face of both Chinas 2021 pledge to withdraw from overseas coal and Pakistans stated moratorium on new imported coal projects.In Febru-ary 2022,Islamic Development Bank and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)Fund BOOM AND BUST COAL 202

294、3REPORT|APRIL 2023|33GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEloans for a second 660 MW unit at the Jamshoro plant were reportedly cancelled at Pakistans request;how-ever,by the end of the year,Karachis investor-o

295、wned utility company was urging for the project to be switched to local coal and developed in coordination with Saudi Arabia.In February 2023,Energy Minister Khurram also announced Pakistan was reversing a long-held strat-egy to import more fuels including LNG.Instead,it would aim to expand four-fol

296、d the countrys coal-fired power capacity that relies on domestic coal resources,from 2.31 GW to a potential 10 GW.Such an increase would surpass and defy the coal projects contemplated in the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan for 202231.Moving forward,“must-run”obligations and long term

297、contracts must be seriously consid-ered to avoid locking in unnecessary emissions and expenses.An analysis by TransitionZero and IEEFA also highlighted both the volatility to coal and gas power competitiveness,and the need for reforms to ensure renewable and storage costs continue falling.Meanwhile,

298、coal in Pakistan continues to wreak havoc on people and the environment.In an October 2022 report,the Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development(PRIED)highlighted the adverse impacts of coal mining and power in Thar on the livelihood of agro-pastoralist communities:“Apart from con-taminatin

299、g local water resources and degradation of land,changing land use pattern has exposed Tharis to severe livelihood challenges.”The countrys coal projectsmany proposed under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)frameworkhave been plagued by delays,corruption,and opposition,leading to socio-politi

300、cal conflicts as well as a significant rise in Pakistans debt.BANGLADESHUnder the 2016 Power System Master Plan“Revis-ited”(PSMP)released in November 2018,coal power capacity in Bangladesh was projected to grow from 0.5 GW in 2019 to 25.5 GW by 2040.However,by November 2020,the government finalized

301、plans to cancel pre-construction coal plants,and in June 2021,cancelled plans for ten plants amid concerns about fuel costs and widespread opposition.In 2022,another 6 GW of coal capacity moved from pre-permitted or shelved to presumed cancelled,increasing the amount of capacity abandoned since 2014

302、 to 28.8 GW.The countrys last remaining coal proposals,which total 6.7 GW,seem increasingly unlikely following Chi-nas pledge to end overseas coal financing:the Orion plant and the Phulbari power stations(Gezhouba&Sinohydro).However,in September 2021,the sponsor for the Phulbari units claimed it rem

303、ained commit-ted to delivering the projects in a form that“fits in with the Bangladesh Governments Energy and Power Sector development ambitions”and includes new coal capacity and a large open pit mine.(Bangladesh Power Development Boards Monthly Progress Report for February 2023 only listed 1.9 GW

304、of proposed coal:the Orion plant,with a comment about location uncer-tainty,and the Maheshkhali plant,projected for June 2030 but absent from BPDBs recent annual reports.)At the same time,2022 saw one new unit commis-sioned at the Barisal plant,the first independent power producer(IPP)project invest

305、ed,constructed,and operated by PowerChina and controlled by a Chinese-funded enterprise in Bangladesh.In addition,one unit was finally commissioned at the controver-sial Rampal plant.The plant had to suspend produc-tion only 29 days after it started operating because of coal shortages,and by Februar

306、y 2023,its power cost was nearly double initial estimates due to the global coal market and US dollar exchange rate.Construction also continued at five plants in 2022.If completed,the additional 5.7 GW of coal power capac-ity would nearly triple the 2.9 GW coal power capacity currently operating in

307、Bangladesh.Included in this BOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|34GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEin-construction capacity is a Chinese-backed Phase II of BCPCLs Payra plant,which was initially expec

308、ted to be axed after China pledged it would not build new coal-fired power projects abroad.Bangladeshs power system overcapacity problem continues to grow and is made worse by guaranteed power purchase agreements that have forced the country to pay for unused power.As fiscal pressures mount due to d

309、ecreasing foreign currency reserves,the country must stop investing in new coal-and gas-fired capacity,and instead shore up cost-competitive renewables,invest in its grid,and focus on energy storage to ensure energy security and affordability.VIETNAMVietnam has very substantially adjusted its plans

310、for new coal power plants,but there is still a way to go.Over the last two years,drafts of the countrys new Power Development Plan VIII(PDP8)have cut progressively more coal power,often switching coal projects to gas and adding more renewables.A July 2022 draft of the PDP8 listed fifteen coal-fired

311、power stations planned for 20212030.Several of these proj-ects were still in the contract negotiation stage,and even more(equivalent to over 7 GW)were listed as struggling to secure capital.Prior to COP27,negotiations between Vietnam and G7 countries surrounding a Just Energy Transition Partnership(

312、JETP)had failed.By December 2022,the countries were able to agree on US$15.5 billion in funding to support Vietnams energy transition,including the expectation that it would reach peak emissions by 2030 rather than 2035.Additionally,Vietnam would install less than 6 GW of additional coal capacity,do

313、wn from the over 12 GW previously targeted and the over 18 GW included in the July draft of PDP8.A new December 2022 draft cut the list of coal projects to twelve,several of which have struggled to attract investors and appear to be pivoting to gas.Some devel-opment projects,such as the long-delayed

314、 Quang Tri plant,were explicitly cancelled in 2022.Phase 3 of the Vinh Tan plant,which was originally planned to begin construction in 2010,has never been cancelled yet has been labeled as“troubled”and has faced a slew of roadblocks since inception.Five power stations,equivalent to the entire 6 GW n

315、ew coal capacity target,are already under construction.The Long Phu plant,the Quang Trach plant,Phase 2 of the Thai Binh plant,the Van Phong plant,and Phase 2 of the Vung Ang plant are at varying stages of comple-tion as of January 2023.Should all of these projects reach commercial operation,the rem

316、aining proposed capacity must be cancelled in order for Vietnam to stay aligned with its JETP agreement.The existing operational capacity in the country,which has more than doubled in the last decade,con-sists of over 70 units across 25 power stations.The coal fleet is very young,with 95%of the capa

317、city installed in the last 20 years and nearly 80%installed in the last 10 years.Coal remains central to the livelihood of many residents of the country,with nearly two dozen operating mines.Should Vietnam successfully phase out coal-fired electricity generation and mining over the long term,an equi

318、table energy transition must take this population into consideration.The coun-trys 2050 net-zero target is achievable,but it requires thoughtful deployment of JETP funds and an upgrade to the countrys transmission grid to accommodate its rapidly-growing renewables sector.In addi-tion,as human rights

319、 groups and others have been highlighting,the government must uphold the highest human rights standards to strengthen and achieve its commitments.A just transition requires“true partic-ipation,the release of political prisoners,and restor-ative justice.”BOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|35GLO

320、BAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEPHILIPPINESCoal plant proposals in the Philippines have been rap-idly shrinking since the 2020 moratorium on plants for which the permitting process had not already begun,with

321、 capacity in pre-construction declining 84%from 10.1 GW in 2019 to 1.6 GW in 2022.The moratorium was reaffirmed by incoming President Ferdinand Mar-cos in August 2022,whose administration is seeking to replace existing and planned coal power projects with nuclear energy.The Philippines ranked sixth

322、in the world for new capacity in 2022,commissioning the 1.3 GW Dinginin plant.The operational capacity in the Philippines has doubled in the last decade,but annual capacity addi-tions are starting to plateau.Two plants are currently under construction,the 600 MW Mariveles plant and a second 135 MW u

323、nit at Concepcion.Estimated completion dates for the remaining 1.6 GW in pre-construction have been steadily slipping in the Department of Energys project listings,as financing for new projects vanishes and Philippine energy com-panies move to shed their existing coal assets.Ayala has been selling o

324、ff its coal assets in recent years,and in July 2022 its subsidiary ACEN secured funding through an Asian Development Bank-inspired ETM that will be used to retire the six-year-old Puting Bato plant by 2040,fifteen years ahead of schedule.The Manila Electric Company(Meralco)is not planning to exit co

325、al until sometime between 20412050,and pins even this late exit date on the governments ability to replace coal power with nuclear.SOUTH KOREASouth Korea announced an official 2050 coal exit year in 2021 but has yet to develop any concrete plans to execute a Paris-aligned coal phase out.According to

326、 the 10th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand(20222036),Korea plans to have 41 coal units oper-ating in 2030 with a total capacity of 31.7 GW.This is only 7.4 GW less than the current operating capacity of 39.1 GW,or a 19%reduction,and completely out of line with the countrys Nationally Det

327、ermined Con-tribution(NDC)under the Paris climate agreement,which aims to reduce 40%of total national greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 2018.Despite the strong demand for a coal phase out,Gangneungs Anin unit 1 started operating in Novem-ber 2022 and three new units(Anin unit 2,Samcheok u

328、nits 1 and 2)are scheduled to go online in 2023 and 2024.However,the financial market is increasingly turning away from coal businesses,and only 3.5%(KRW8 billion,or US$6.1 million)of the corporate bonds to finance the Samcheok Blue Power project were sold in2023.In fact,the financial risks of coal

329、dependency are already manifesting at a national scale.Due to its high coal exposure,the recent global energy price increase due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine has directly contributed to the financial crisis Korea Electric Power Corporation(KEPCO)is facing.In 2022 alone,the majority-state-owned

330、 utility suffered over a 32.6 trillion KRW(US$25 billion)deficit,around 30%of which was directly attributable to coal power.Despite KEPCOs implementation of a series of emergency measures,the crisis has had impacts beyond the utili-tys own balance sheet.For instance,there is political pressure on th

331、e National Pension Service to purchase KEPCOs bonds to help absorb the impacts of the cri-sis.Although it is unclear whether the Pension,which announced a coal exit in 2021,would respond,the decision to do so would spread the coal risks to future generations.It has thus become clear that retiring co

332、al plants is a prerequisite to fundamentally ensuring the stability of KEPCO and the countrys financial market.BOOM AND BUST COAL 2023REPORT|APRIL 2023|36GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIM FINANCE,SIERRA CLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CAN EUROPE,BANGLADESH GROUPS,ACJCE,CHILE SUSTENTABLEMeanwhile,the soci

333、al costs and negative impacts of a coal exit on workers and the regional economy are increasingly entering policy discussions.Communities that depend heavily on coal power generation require just transition measures to prevent job losses and economic downturns in the run-up to the upcoming closure of existing coal power plants in South Korea,as they do in the rest of the world.In the case of the S