穆迪：2023年年北美银行系统展望（演讲PPT）（英文版）（38页）.pdf

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1、2023 North American banking system outlooksMarch 8,2023Rob Colangelo,VP-Senior Credit OfficerRita Sahu,VP-Senior Credit OfficerJill Cetina,Associate Managing DirectorWelcome RemarksMarch 8,2023Jill Cetina,Associate Managing Director,FIG Canada:Banking System OutlookMarch 8,2023Rob Colangelo,VP-Senio

2、r Credit Officer North American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,20234The stable outlook reflects our view of credit fundamentals in the banking sector over the next 12 to 18 months.Banking sector outlooks are distinct from rating outlooks,which,in addition to sector dynamics,also reflect issuers speci

3、fic characteristics and actions.The outlook does not represent a sum of upgrades,downgrades or ratings under review,or an average of rating outlook.The 2023 Canadian bank sector outlook is stableNorth American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,20235Households levered and facing adjustment to higher rate

4、sHousehold debt%of disposable income as of 30 September 2022Bank of Canada benchmark rate and household debt as a percentage of disposable income184.7%1.00%0.75%0.5%0.75%1.00%1.25%1.50%1.75%0.25%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.50%3.25%3.75%4.25%4.50%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%155160165170175180185190201320142015201620172018201

5、92020202120222023Household debt%disposable income(LHS)BoC benchmark rate(RHS)Source:Statistics Canada,Bank of Canada,Moodys Investors ServiceNorth American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,20236Source:Statistics Canada,Moodys Investors ServiceBoth household and corporate debt levels elevated in Canada

6、Household debt%of disposable income and corporate debt%of GDP are as of 30 September 2022149.7%173.0%184.7%121.1%179.3%155.2%80%100%120%140%160%180%200%1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201

7、9 2020 2021 2022Canada recesssionHousehold debt%disposable incomeCorporate debt%gross domestic product(GDP)North American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,20237Year-over-year growth rate of residential mortgage and non-mortgage loans remained strong while equity issuances has decreasedDrivers of levera

8、ge growth in Canada varySource:Statistics Canada,Moodys Investors Service4.1%5.1%7.7%10.7%7.2%8.7%3.8%1.6%5.5%9.0%4.4%5.2%7.8%10.2%7.0%3.9%1.2%4.5%7.0%2.8%3.7%10.9%13.2%11.3%1.9%-1%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%20182019202020212022Residential mortgage debtNon-mort businessMort businessDebt securitiesEquities

9、SecuritiesNorth American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,20238Canadian banks asset quality will deteriorate reflecting modest rise in unemployment rate1)Net charge offs(NCOs)to total gross loans ratio is for the seven largest Canadian banks while the non-performing loans to total gross loans ratio is

10、for the entire banking system.2)Moodys US Macroeconomic Board expects unemployment in Canada to reach 5.7%in 2023 and 6.0%in 2024.Source:Moodys Investors Service6.1%8.1%13.4%5.0%5.7%6.0%0.6%1.3%0.6%0.3%0.2%-0.2%0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%20052006200720082009201020112012201320

11、142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Canada recesssionUnemployment rate(LHS)Non-performing loans to total gross loans ratio(RHS)NCOs to total gross loans ratio(RHS)North American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,20239Canadian consumer insolvencies expected to riseSource:Office of the Superintenden

12、t of Bankruptcy,Moodys Investors ServiceAs consumers adjust to inflation and higher borrowing costs,insolvencies expected to rise towards long-term historical average-2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000Jan Feb MarApr May JunJulAug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb MarApr May JunJulAug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Fe

13、b MarApr May JunJulAug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2020202120222023Insolvencies10-year pre-pandemic averageNorth American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,202310Asset quality metrics have weakened modestly but remains strongSource:Moodys Investors Service,company filingsAggregate PPI,net income,PCL and allowanc

14、es ratios for credit losses for the six large Canadian banks,CAD billions0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.7%0.8%0.9%1.0%1.1%$0$5$10$15$20$25$30$35Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3

15、2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022Q1 2023Pretax Preprovision incomeNet incomeALL/gross loansPCL/gross loansNorth American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,202311Teranet-National Bank Hou

16、sing Price IndexRapidly rising interest rates have slowed housing market activityNote:Composite 11 is a national index comprised of weighted statistics from the 11 indices(Victoria,Vancouver,Calgary,Edmonton,Winnipeg,Hamilton,Toronto,Ottawa-Gatineau,Montreal,Quebec and HalifaxSource:Teranet-National

17、 Bank Housing Price index,Moodys Investors Service05010015020025030035040045020072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Composite 11VancouverCalgaryWinnipegTorontoOttawaMontrealHalifaxNorth American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,202312Banks remain well positioned to benefit

18、from further rate increases Net interest margin(NIM)of the six large Canadian banks,Q1 2021 to Q1 2023Year-over-year change in aggregate net interest income and aggregate fee revenueSource:Moodys Investors Service,company filings1%-5%0%3%6%10%15%14%10%3%20%4%5%3%12%-20%28%6%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40

19、%Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022Q1 2023Aggregate net interest incomeAggregate fee revenueNote:NIM for BMO,RBC and NBC are net interest margin excluding trading net interest income and trading assets;NIM for TD,BNS and CIBC are consolidated net interest margin.1.2%1.4%1.6%1.8

20、%2.0%2.2%2.4%Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022Q1 2023TDBNSBMOCIBCRBCNBCNorth American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,2023131)The x-axis labels show each banks Baseline Credit Assessment(BCA).2)CET1 ratios of the Canadian banks are as of 31 January 2023.The regulatory minimum CE

21、T1 capital ratio for Canadas systemically important banks will be 11%,effective 1 February 2023 as a result of OSFI raising the DSB to 3%from 2.5%.BMOs and TDs capital levels are outsized due to pending acquisitions.BMOs acquisition of Bank of the West closed on 1 February 2023,with management expec

22、ting its CET1 ratio to be above 11.5%in Q2 2023.TD expects its capital ratio to be above the 11%minimum upon closing of its pending acquisition of First Horizon,although regulatory approvals may not be received by the revised outside date of May 27,2023.Source:Company reports,Moodys Investors Servic

23、eCapital remains strong,with increased capital requirements credit positiveNorth American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,202314Deposit growth remains strongDeposit levels for the six largest Canadian banks and year over year changesSource:Moodys Investors Service,company filingsNorth American Banks:B

24、anking System Outlooks,202315Liquidity remains strong at the largest Canadian banksBanks proactively accessed funding markets to counter market turbulence,with liquidity expected to remain at exceptionally high level as at Q1 202346%43%42%42%36%32%28%125%135%128%140%119%129%136%80%90%100%110%120%130

25、%140%150%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%RBC(a2)BMO(a3)TD(a1)NBC(baa1)BNS(a3)CIBC(a3)DG(a1)Liquid banking assets/tangible banking assetsLiquidity coverage ratioSource:Moodys Investors Service,company filingsLiquid banking assets/tangible banking assets and liquidity coverage ratio as of 30 September

26、2022 for DG and 31 October 2022 for all othersNorth American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,202316Drivers that could change the stable outlookNegativeStablePositiveWhat could change outlook to negativeInflation proves sticky and higher rates for longer have more adverse impact on asset quality.Market

27、 disruptions or asset price shocks trigger rising market and credit losses that sharply lower profitability.Central bank tightening reduces deposits,materially increasing market funding and reducing profitability.Significant and sustained reduction in house prices,resulting in large spike in mortgag

28、e delinquencies and loan losses.Drivers of a stable outlookProfitability supported by higher interest rates,noninterest income diversity,prudent cost discipline and only a moderate increase in provisions.Capitalization is sound;Higher capital requirements for the D-SIBs as OSFI raised the domestic s

29、tability buffer to 3.0%,as well as increased its upper range.Funding and liquidity remain a strength.Unemployment low compared with levels in a typical recession.Impact of any further reductions in house prices will be contained and not spill over into a broader economic crunch.What could change out

30、look to positiveMacroeconomic recovery coupled with lower inflation and an improved geopolitical climate.Stable or diminishing stock of problem loans,while loan-loss reserves stay strong.Improved capital levels with higher buffers above regulatory minimums.Sustainably higher profitability.Home price

31、 appreciation stabilizes,and housing market shows signs of stability.US:Banking System OutlookMarch 8,2023Rita Sahu,VP-Senior Credit OfficerNorth American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,202318US bank sector outlook=stable;higher net interest margins counter effects of mild US recession and weaker ass

32、et quality The stable outlook reflects our view of credit fundamentals in the banking sector over the next 12 to 18 months.Banking sector outlooks are distinct from rating outlooks,which,in addition to sector dynamics,also reflect issuers specific characteristics and actions.The outlook does not rep

33、resent a sum of upgrades,downgrades or ratings under review,or an average of rating outlook.North American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,202319Yield curve inversion deepens;US economic downturn expected 2H231)The charts above show data from 31 January 2000 31 January 2023.2)The Moodys US Macroeconom

34、ic Board fed funds rate expectation is for Q1 2023.Moodys US Macroeconomic Board expects the fed funds rate to peak at 5.1%in Q2 2023.Interest rates rising and financial conditions tightening pose risks to banks asset quality and liquidity-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%Jan-00Jul-00Jan

35、-01Jul-01Jan-02Jul-02Jan-03Jul-03Jan-04Jul-04Jan-05Jul-05Jan-06Jul-06Jan-07Jul-07Jan-08Jul-08Jan-09Jul-09Jan-10Jul-10Jan-11Jul-11Jan-12Jul-12Jan-13Jul-13Jan-14Jul-14Jan-15Jul-15Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23US recession10 Year-3 Month Treas

36、ury Yield Spread10 Year Treasury YieldFederal Funds RateUS Macroboard Fed Funds Rate ExpectationSource:U.S Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,Bloomberg,Moodys Investors Service North American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,202320With mild recession likely in 2023,US corporate leverage i

37、s at highest level late-cycle since WW II eraUS non-financial corporate debt/GDP and US household debt/GDPSource:Haver,Federal Reserve Board,National Bureau of Economic Research,Moodys Investors Service 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%100%19511952195319541955195619571958195

38、9196019611962196319641965196619671968196919701971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022US RecessionUS household Debt/GDPUS non-financi

39、al corporate debt/GDPNorth American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,202321The US private credit landscapePrivate equitys appetite for leverage fuels growth in private credit,raising systemic riskNorth American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,202322C&I=Commercial and Industrial.Source:Haver,Company Repor

40、ts,Moodys Investors Service Moodys baseline macro and corporate default forecasts imply US C&I non-performing loans(NPLs)rise to 1.3%in 2023North American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,202323US bank CRE loans as%tangible common equity(TCE)by asset size,30 Sept 2022US regional and community banks gen

41、erally more CRE concentratedSource:FDIC Statistics on Depository Institutions,Moodys Investors ServiceNorth American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,202324US banks:Auto loan charge-offs back at 2019 levels;deterioration in credit card charge-offs masked by rapid loan growthSource:Company disclosures a

42、nd Moodys Investors Service Note:1)The averages are calculated for the largest US retail banks.For credit card,it includes American Express Company,Bank of America Corporation,Capital One Financial Corporation,Discover Financial Services and JPMorgan Chase&Co.For auto,it includes Ally Financial Inc.

43、,Capital One Financial Corporation,JPMorgan Chase&Co.and Wells Fargo&Company.For residential mortgage,it includes Bank of America Corporation,JPMorgan Chase&Co.,U.S.Bancorp and Wells Fargo&Company.Credit card net charge-offs averages for large lendersAuto loan net charge-offs averages for large bank

44、 lendersResidential mortgage net charge-offs for large bank lenders-2.50%-1.50%-0.50%0.50%1.50%2.50%3.50%4.50%-2.50%-1.50%-0.50%0.50%1.50%2.50%3.50%4.50%Change vs 2018Change vs 2019Absolute levels-1.20%-1.00%-0.80%-0.60%-0.40%-0.20%0.00%0.20%0.40%0.60%0.80%1.00%1.20%1.40%-1.20%-1.00%-0.80%-0.60%-0.4

45、0%-0.20%0.00%0.20%0.40%0.60%0.80%1.00%1.20%1.40%Change vs 2018Change vs 2019Absolute levels-0.20%-0.15%-0.10%-0.05%0.00%0.05%0.10%0.15%0.20%-0.20%-0.15%-0.10%-0.05%0.00%0.05%0.10%0.15%0.20%Change vs 2018Change vs 2019Absolute levelsNorth American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,202325US banks net char

46、ge-offs have been unsustainably lowNet charge-off ratio:Left chart Q1 2007 Q4 2022,Right chart Q1 2019 Q4 2022Source:FDIC,Moodys Investors Service 0.760.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.00Assets$250 BillionAssets$10 Billion-$250 BillionAssets$1 Billion-$10 BillionAll Insured InstitutionsAvg a

47、ll 1Q10-3Q220.760.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.802019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4Assets$250 BillionAssets$10 Billion-$250 BillionAssets$1 Billion-$10 BillionAll Insured InstitutionsAvg all 1Q10-3Q22North American Banks

48、:Banking System Outlooks,202326Allowance for loan losses%gross loansReserve coverage CECL Day 1 for most large US banks1)The x-axis labels include the lead banks standalone BCAs.2)Day-one CECL allowance for loan losses indicates the ALL on January 1,2020,post adoption to CECL.Source:Company reports,

49、Moodys Investors Service Allowance for loan losses%nonperforming loans,Q4 2022762%719%696%464%407%381%373%368%345%345%319%294%293%250%239%231%207%79%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%800%USB(a1)FRC(a3)C(baa1)SIVB(a2)FITB(a3)ZION(a3)HBAN(a3)TFC(a2)MedianKEY(a3)BAC(a3)JPM(a2)RF(a3)CMA(a2)PNC(a2)WFC(a2)CFG

50、(a3)MTB(a2)0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%C(baa1)FITB(a3)USB(a1)HBAN(a3)JPM(a2)RF(a3)MTB(a2)PNC(a2)WFC(a2)MedianTFC(a2)CFG(a3)BAC(a3)CMA(a2)KEY(a3)ZION(a3)SIVB(a2)FRC(a3)Q4 2021Q3 2022Q4 2022Day-one CECL ALL/Gross loansNorth American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,202327Common Equity Tier 1 capital rati

51、o(standardized approach)1)The x-axis labels include the lead banks standalone BCAs.2)The CET1 ratios for all banks were derived using the U.S.Basel III standardized framework.3)The CET1 capital requirements are based on the Federal Reserve Large Bank Capital Requirements as of 1 Oct 2022.The require

52、ment is made up of several components,including a minimum CET1 capital ratio requirement of 4.5 percent,the stress capital buffer(SCB)requirement determined from the supervisory stress test results and if applicable,a capital surcharge for global systemically important banks(G-SIBs).Source:Company r

53、eports,Moodys Investors Service Regional US banks capital largely flat even as G-SIBs build capital12.6%9.9%12.4%9.3%13.1%9.4%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%MS(baa1)GS(baa1)STT(a1)JPM(a2)G-SIBsMedianC(baa1)BAC(a3)BK(a1)WFC(a2)SIVB(a2)MTB(a2)CMA(a2)CFG(a3)ZION(a3)RF(a3)RegionalBanksMedi

54、anHBAN(a3)FITB(a3)PNC(a2)KEY(a3)TFC(a2)FRC(a3)USB(a1)Q4 2021Q3 2022Q4 2022Minimum CET1 requirment of 7%Minimum CET1 requirement in excess of 7%North American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,202328Quarterly change in banks average net interest margin,Q1 2015 Q4 2022 US banks NIM improvement decelerated

55、 in Q41)The blue dashed line represents the average net interest margin of the following banks:BAC,C,CMA,CFG,FITB,FRC,HBAN,JPM,KEY,MTB,PNC,SIVB,TFC,USB,WFC,and ZION.From Q1 2015 Q3 2019,the peer group included BBT and STI,but not TFC.2)The orange dotted line represents the average net interest margi

56、n of aggregate US commercial banks from 2010 2021.Source:Company reports,US Federal Reserve,Moodys Investors Service 2.88%2.89%2.86%2.86%2.94%2.90%2.89%2.91%3.00%3.05%3.08%3.07%3.13%3.18%3.20%3.23%3.25%3.18%3.09%3.01%3.00%2.67%2.56%2.54%2.52%2.40%2.39%2.35%2.40%2.63%2.92%3.06%0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.0

57、0%2.50%3.00%3.50%-0.40%-0.30%-0.20%-0.10%0.00%0.10%0.20%0.30%0.40%Q12015Q22015Q32015Q42015Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42016Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42017Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42018Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42019Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42020Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42021Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42022Average change in NIM(LHS)Average NIM(RHS)

58、2010-2021 average NIM(US commercial banks)(RHS)Periods with rate increases=Periods with arate cut225 bps Fed Funds rate cutsLong run average NIM=3.21%425 bps Fed Funds rate hikes in 2022North American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,202329Deposit beta acceleration will broaden to more US banks in 2023

59、Change in deposit costs since start of Fed rate hikes and quantitative tighteningThe x-axis labels include the lead banks standalone BCAs.Source:Company reports,Moodys Investors Service 14%30%65 bps0204060801001201401601802000%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%C(baa1)FRC(a3)SIVB(a2)JPM(a2)USB(a1)CFG(a3)PNC(a2

60、)FITB(a3)TFC(a2)MedianHBAN(a3)BAC(a3)KEY(a3)WFC(a2)MTB(a2)CMA(a2)RF(a3)ZION(a3)basis pointsCumulative deposit beta 4Q21-4Q22(LHS)Total deposit beta 3Q22-4Q22(LHS)Cost of total deposits in basis points 4Q22(RHS)North American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,202330Total deposits and borrowings for small

61、 vs.large domestic commercial banks,Dec 2009-Feb 2023Smaller US banks borrowing levels rise as deposit growth stalls;Large US banks see deposit outflows but limited increase in borrowings1)The large domestic commercial banks are defined as the top 25 domestically chartered commercial banks.2)The sma

62、ll domestic commercial banks are defined as all the domestically chartered commercial banks not included in the top 25(banks with less than$150B in total assets).Source:Haver,Moodys Investors Service$0$50$100$150$200$250$300$350$400$450$150$1,150$2,150$3,150$4,150$5,150$6,150Dec-09Jun-10Dec-10Jun-11

63、Dec-11Jun-12Dec-12Jun-13Dec-13Jun-14Dec-14Jun-15Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22BillionsDeposits:Adjusted Small Domestic Commercial Banks(LHS)Securities:Adjusted Small Domestic Commercial Banks(LHS)Borrowings:Adjusted Small Domestic Commercia

64、l Banks(RHS)$0$200$400$600$800$1,000$1,200$1,400$1,600$0$2,000$4,000$6,000$8,000$10,000$12,000Dec-09Jun-10Dec-10Jun-11Dec-11Jun-12Dec-12Jun-13Dec-13Jun-14Dec-14Jun-15Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22BillionsDeposits:Adjusted Large Domestic Com

65、mercial Banks(LHS)Securities:Adjusted Large Domestic Commercial Banks(LHS)Borrowings:Adjusted Large Domestic Commercial Banks(RHS)North American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,202331Drivers that could change the stable outlookNegativeStablePositiveWhat could change outlook to negativeInflation proves

66、 sticky and higher rates for longer have more adverse impact on asset quality.Market disruptions or asset price shocks trigger rising market and credit losses that sharply lower profitability.Central bank tightening reduces deposits,materially increasing market funding and reducing profitability.Dri

67、vers of a stable outlookProfitability is supported by higher interest rates,noninterest income diversity,prudent cost discipline and only a moderate increase in provisions.Capitalization is sound.Prudent underwriting in residential mortgage and credit cards;construction lending down.Funding and liqu

68、idity will remain a credit strength even as they revert toward pre-pandemic levels.Increase in unemployment will be moderate.What could change outlook to positiveMacroeconomic recovery coupled with lower inflation,lower business and consumer debt levels and an improved geopolitical climate.Stable pr

69、oblem loans and net charge-offs that preclude the need for reserve builds.Improved capital levels,with higher buffers above regulatory minimums.Sustainably higher profitability.Q&AThank YouAppendixNorth American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,202335TickerCompany Name BCABMOBank of Montreala3BNSBank o

70、f Nova Scotiaa3CIBCCanadian Imperial Bank of Commercea3DGFdration des caisses Desjardins du Qubeca1NBCNational Bank of Canadabaa1RBCRoyal Bank of Canadaa2TDToronto-Dominion Bank(The)a1List of Canadian banks peer group for this reportBCA=Baseline Credit AssessmentSource:Moodys Investors ServiceNorth

71、American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,202336List of US banks peer group for this reportTickerCompany Name BCABACBank of America Corpa3CCitigroup Inc.baa1CFGCitizens Financial Group,Inc.a3CMAComerica Incorporateda2FITBFifth Third Bancorpa3FRCFirst Republic Banka3HBANHuntington Bancshares Incorporate

72、da3JPMJPMorgan Chase&Co.a2KEYKeyCorpa3MTBM&T Bank Corporationa2PNCPNC Financial Services Group,Inc.a2RFRegions Financial Corporationa3SIVBSVB Financial Groupa2TFCTruist Financial Corporationa2USBU.S.Bancorpa1WFCWells Fargo&Companya2ZIONZions Bancorporation,N.A.a3BCA=Baseline Credit AssessmentSource:

73、Moodys Investors ServiceRob Colangelo,CPA,CAVP Senior Credit OfficerFinancial Institutions Group+Rita Sahu,CFAVP Senior Credit OfficerFinancial Institutions Group+Jill CetinaAssociate Managing DirectorFinancial Institutions Group+North American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,202338 2023 Moodys Corpor

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81、LD BE RECKLESS AND INAPPROPRIATE FOR RETAIL INVESTORS TO USE MOODYS CREDIT RATINGS,ASSESSMENTS,OTHER OPINIONS OR PUBLICATIONS WHEN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION.IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER.ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW,INCLUDING

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83、Y ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODYS PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT.MOODYS CREDIT RATINGS,ASSESSMENTS,OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSES AND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT COULD RESULT IN THEM BEING CONSIDERED A BENCH

84、MARK.All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable.Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors,however,all information contained herein is provided“AS IS”without warranty of any kind.MOODYS adopts a

85、ll necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including,when appropriate,independent third-party sources.However,MOODYS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify o

86、r validate information received in the credit rating process or in preparing its Publications.To the extent permitted by law,MOODYS and its directors,officers,employees,agents,representatives,licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect,special,consequential,or

87、 incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information,even if MOODYS or any of its directors,officers,employees,agents,representatives,licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the pos

88、sibility of such losses or damages,including but not limited to:(a)any loss of present or prospective profits or(b)any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYS.To the extent permitted by law,MOODYS and its dire

89、ctors,officers,employees,agents,representatives,licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity,including but not limited to by any negligence(but excluding fraud,willful misconduct or any other type of liability that,for the

90、 avoidance of doubt,by law cannot be excluded)on the part of,or any contingency within or beyond the control of,MOODYS or any of its directors,officers,employees,agents,representatives,licensors or suppliers,arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inabili

91、ty to use any such information.NO WARRANTY,EXPRESS OR IMPLIED,AS TO THE ACCURACY,TIMELINESS,COMPLETENESS,MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDIT RATING,ASSESSMENT,OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODYS IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER.Moodys Investors Ser

92、vice,Inc.,a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Corporation(“MCO”),hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities(including corporate and municipal bonds,debentures,notes and commercial paper)and preferred stock rated by Moodys Investors Service,Inc.have,prior to assignment

93、 of any credit rating,agreed to pay to Moodys Investors Service,Inc.for credit ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from$1,000 to approximately$5,000,000.MCO and Moodys Investors Service also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of Moodys Investors Servic

94、e credit ratings and credit rating processes.Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities,and between entities who hold credit ratings from Moodys Investors Service,Inc.and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of

95、 more than 5%,is posted annually at under the heading“Investor Relations Corporate Governance Charter Documents-Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy.”Additional terms for Australia only:Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of

96、 MOODYS affiliate,Moodys Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 and/or Moodys Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569(as applicable).This document is intended to be provided only to“wholesale clients”within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2

97、001.By continuing to access this document from within Australia,you represent to MOODYS that you are,or are accessing the document as a representative of,a“wholesale client”and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to“reta

98、il clients”within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001.MOODYS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer,not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors.Additional terms for Ja

99、pan only:Moodys Japan K.K.(“MJKK”)is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Group Japan G.K.,which is wholly-owned by Moodys Overseas Holdings Inc.,a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO.Moodys SF Japan K.K.(“MSFJ”)is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK.MSFJ is not a N

100、ationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization(“NRSRO”).Therefore,credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings.Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and,consequently,the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under U.S.

101、laws.MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner(Ratings)No.2 and 3 respectively.MJKK or MSFJ(as applicable)hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities(including corporate and municipal bond

102、s,debentures,notes and commercial paper)and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ(as applicable)have,prior to assignment of any credit rating,agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ(as applicable)for credit ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY100,000 to approximately JPY550,000,0

103、00.MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements.This publication does not announce a credit rating action.For any credit ratings referenced in this publication,please see the issuer/deal page on https:/ for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history