麦肯锡：大宗商品交易的未来（英文版）（14页）.pdf

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1、Global Energy and Materials PracticeThe future of commodity tradingA new normal of commodity trading will call for new types of traders.by Roland Rechtsteiner,Joscha Schabram,and Arun ThomasJanuary 2023 Felix Cesare/Getty ImagesThe commodity trading industry has enjoyed an upward trend over the past

2、 five years.While all industries go through multiyear cycles of peaks and troughs,the industrys prospects look excellent for the years ahead.Indeed,commodity trading is on the cusp of the next normal.The energy transition now under way is an economic and physical transformation that cuts across and

3、integrates the various global food,energy,and materials systems.From a commodity trading standpoint,this transformation will increase structural volatility,disrupt trade flows to open new arbitrages,redefine what it means to be a commodity,and fundamentally alter commercial relationships.All these d

4、evelopments will create unique opportunities and challenges for new and incumbent players alike.In this article,we explore the trends underpinning commodity trading value pools,discuss five success factors and their potential implementation,and present our perspective on the three business models th

5、at could develop over time.What is the status of the industry?Commodity trading value pools have grown substantially,almost doubling from$27 billion in 2018 to an estimated$52 billion of EBIT in 2021(Exhibit 1).The majority of this growth was fueled by EBIT from oil trading,which were estimated to h

6、ave increased by more than 90 percent to$18 billion during this period.Power and gas trading was just behind,rising from$7 billion to$13 billion.These value pools maintained their upward trajectory in 2022.The market will likely attract new entrants that enhance competition,and our analysis suggests