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1、2023 OUTLOOK LOOKING THROUGH TO RECOVERY2023 OUTLOOK2To Our Clients and Friends,To me,the defining feature of the 2020s is speed.Weve seen how fast a virus spread across the world and shut down half of the global economy.Weve watched with admiration and gratitude as scientists raced to develop vacci

2、nes and treatments.Weve benefited from quickly enacted monetary and fiscal measures to support citizens and economies.Russias invasion of Ukraine in February of this year marks the reversal of decades of global economic interdependence that was presumed to preserve peace.Once again,policymakers and

3、companies acted with incredible speed.Sanctions were passed and enforced.Many companies,including BNY Mellon,exited Russian operations.And central banks raised interest rates to combat high inflation.In the United States,monetary tightening is proceeding at the fastest pace ever.With this backdrop,2

4、022 was a difficult year for investors.As we look ahead to 2023 and beyond in our 2023 Outlook,inflation will be the key metric for investors.We expect the Federal Reserve to raise its target interest rate to around 5%.As a result,inflation will continue to decline,but remain above the low levels we

5、 have experienced since the global financial crisis.We forecast a mild recession but a regime change ahead for stocks and bonds,with both offering attractive opportunities.Speed will continue to be a theme,as markets move quickly when they anticipate change.We recognize that speed is challenging its

6、 dizzying and makes it hard to maintain perspective.Rudyard Kipling in his poem If famously wrote that learning to“keep your head when all about you are losing theirs”is part of growing up.Its also part of managing wealth.Over our two centuries of serving families,weve learned that consistent steps