《高盛（Goldman Sachs）：通向2075之路——全球经济增长放缓但趋同性保持不变（英文版）（45页）.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《高盛（Goldman Sachs）：通向2075之路——全球经济增长放缓但趋同性保持不变（英文版）（45页）.pdf（45页珍藏版）》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。

1、Two decades since we first set out long-term growth projections for the BRI Csneconomies,we are updating and expanding those projections to cover 104countries out to 2075.We identify four major themes for the global economy:Theme#1:Slower global potential growth,led by weaker populationngrowth.Our p

2、rojections imply that global growth will average a little under 3%per year over the next ten years and will be on a gradually declining path,primarily reflecting slower labour force growth.Global population growth hashalved over the past 50 years,from 2%per year to less than 1%,and isexpected to fal

3、l to close to zero by 2075.Theme#2:EM convergence remains intact,led by Asias powerhouses.nAlthough real GDP growth has slowed in both developed and emergingeconomies,in relative terms EM growth continues to outstrip DM growth.Ourprojections imply that the worlds five largest economies in 2050(measu

4、red inreal USD)will be China,the US,I ndia,I ndonesia,and Germany(with I ndonesiadisplacing Brazil and Russia among the largest EMs).By 2075,with theappropriate policies and institutions,Nigeria,Pakistan and Egypt could be amongthe worlds largest economies.Theme#3:A decade of US exceptionalism that

5、is unlikely to be repeated.nThe USs relative performance has been stronger than expected over the pastdecade.However,history suggests it is unlikely to repeat this over the nextdecade.US potential growth remains significantly lower than that of large EMeconomies,and we expect some of the US Dollars

6、exceptional strength ofrecent years to be unwound over the next 10 years.Theme#4:Less global inequality,more local inequality.Twenty years of EMnconvergence has resulted in a more equal distribution of global incomes.However,while income inequality between countries has fallen,incomeinequality withi