贝莱德（BlackRock）：2023年全球投资展望报告（中译版）（16页）.pdf

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1、BlackRock InvestmentInstituteFOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.,CANADA,LATIN AMERICA,HONGKONG,SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA.FOR INSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES.A new investment playbook2023 Global outlookBIIM1122U/M-2612147-1/16BIIM1222U/M

2、-2617935-1/162 22022 midyear outlook Contents22023 outlook The Great Moderation,the four-decade period of largely stable activity and inflation,is behind us.The new regime of greater macro and market volatility is playing out.A recession is foretold;central banks are on course to overtighten policy

3、as they seek to tame inflation.This keeps us tactically underweight developed market(DM)equities.We expect to turn more positive on risk assets at some point in 2023 but we are not there yet.And when we get there,we dont see the sustained bull markets of the past.Thats why a new investment playbook

4、is needed.Philipp HildebrandVice Chairman BlackRockFirst wordsSummary New regime plays outNew playbookThemesPricing the damageRethinking bondsLiving with inflation2-32 345-7 5 6 7Jean BoivinHead BlackRock Investment InstituteAlex BrazierDeputy Head BlackRock Investment InstituteVivek PaulHead of Por

5、tfolio Research BlackRock Investment InstituteInvestment viewsTactical StrategicRegime driversAging workforcesA new world orderFaster transitionPrivate marketsView summary8-98 910-1210 1112 1314-15We laid out in our 2022 midyear outlook why we had entered a new regime and are seeing it play out in p

6、ersistent inflation and output volatility,central banks pushing policy rates up to levels that damage economic activity,rising bond yields and ongoing pressure on risk assets.Central bankers wont ride to the rescue when growth slows in this new regime,contrary to what investors have come to expect.T