标普全球（S&P Global）：2023年全球各国银行业展望报告（英文版）（103页）.pdf

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1、Primary contacts Gavin Gunning Melbourne+61-3-9631-2092 Emmanuel Volland Paris+33-14-420-6696 Alexandre Birry London+44-20-7176-7108 Secondary contacts Brendan Browne New York+1-212-438-7399 Cynthia Cohen Freue Buenos Aires+54-11-4891-2161 Elena Iparraguirre Madrid+34-91-389-6963 Osman Sattar London

2、+44-20-7176-7198 Mohamed Damak Dubai+9-714-372-7153 Contacts continued on page 102 Global Bank Country-By-Country Outlook 2023 Greater Divergence Ahead Nov.17,2022 This report does not constitute a rating action Key Takeaways:Global banks are much better capitalized than in the past,offering them so

3、me resilience against weaker economic growth and high inflation.A key risk to bank ratings is the emergence of harsher economic and financing conditions than our base case.Additional key risks are potentially higher corporate insolvencies exacerbated by high corporate leverage,high government levera

4、ge,and weaker property sectors.We anticipate increasing credit divergence between the strong and weak.Challenges may be more acute and swift for NBFIs,and certain emerging market banks.Entities in countries most exposed to energy restrictions may also be challenged.2023 will be more difficult for th

5、e global banking sector.While the vast majority of bank ratings are stable,we anticipate the significant buffers that banks have built up over the past 10 years will be tested.Reasons for resilience.Net interest margins are fattening in many jurisdictions on the back of higher interest rates.This bo

6、ost,along with still-sound asset quality and robust capitalization,continue to underpin our overall stable view across the global banking sector.Another help is strong deposit bases buoyed by excess savings coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic.Still,higher inflation and weakening economies may eventu