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中国半钢胎替换市场尺寸结构：16寸占比持续下降，18寸及以上稳步提升

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所属报告：

中策橡胶-603049-A股公司研究报告：国内第一的轮胎企业海外布局持续推进-260715（38页）.pdf

打包全文图表

2019年至2026年，中国半钢胎替换市场尺寸结构持续向大尺寸演进。图片数据显示，16寸轮胎占比从2019年的69%降至2026年的34%，下降35个百分点；17寸占比在18%—28%区间波动；18寸及以上（18寸、19寸、20+寸）合计占比从10%升至14%。替换市场大尺寸化进程慢于配套市场，但趋势一致。数据来源：格物致胜，申万宏源研究

中国半钢胎替换市场尺寸占比（2019—2026E）
尺寸（英寸）	2019年	2020年	2021年	2022年	2023年	2024年	2025E	2026E
16	69%	66%	60%	53%	48%	43%	39%	34%
17	21%	23%	25%	27%	28%	18%	20%	21%
18	7%	8%	10%	13%	16%	6%	7%	8%
19	2%	2%	4%	5%	3%	3%	4%	5%
20+	1%	1%	2%	2%	1%	1%	1%	1%

数据来源：格物致胜，申万宏源研究

从2019—2026年中国半钢胎替换市场尺寸结构的变化来看，可以提炼出三个关键判断：
16寸占比从69%降至34%，降幅超一半。图片数据显示，16寸轮胎在替换市场中的占比从2019年的69%持续下降至2026年的34%，七年累计下降35个百分点。小尺寸轮胎在替换市场中的份额持续萎缩，反映存量车辆中老旧车型的比例逐步下降，与配套市场大尺寸趋势形成联动。
17寸占比在18%—28%区间波动，2023年达28%峰值后回落。图片数据显示，17寸占比从2019年的21%升至2023年的28%后回落至2026年的21%。17寸作为过渡尺寸，在2023年达到峰值后随18寸及以上份额提升而进入下行通道。
18寸及以上合计占比从10%升至14%，大尺寸渗透稳步推进。图片数据显示，18寸及以上（18寸+19寸+20+寸）合计占比从2019年的10%升至2026年的14%。替换市场大尺寸化进程慢于配套市场（配套市场18寸及以上占比从42%升至58%），反映存量车辆中燃油车仍占主导，替换市场尺寸升级需要更长的周期。