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全球轮胎需求稳步增长：半钢替换市场为增长主引擎

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所属报告：

中策橡胶-603049-A股公司研究报告：国内第一的轮胎企业海外布局持续推进-260715（38页）.pdf

打包全文图表

2009年至2025年，全球半钢及全钢胎需求整体呈稳步增长态势。图片数据显示，全球轮胎总需求从2009年的460百万条增至2025年的600百万条，累计增长约30%。半钢替换需求从150百万条增至420百万条（+180%），为需求增长的核心驱动力；半钢配套需求从250百万条增至400百万条（+60%）；全钢配套与全钢替换需求均稳定在50—60百万条及130—150百万条区间。数据来源：米其林官网，申万宏源研究

全球半钢及全钢胎需求量（2009—2025年，百万条）
年份	半钢配套	半钢替换	全钢配套	全钢替换	合计	YoY（右轴）
2009年	250	150	50	10	460	—
2010年	350	150	50	10	560	+15%
2011年	380	150	50	10	590	+2%
2012年	390	150	50	10	600	0%
2013年	395	150	50	10	605	+8%
2014年	400	150	50	10	610	+4%
2015年	380	150	50	15	595	+2%
2016年	385	150	50	15	600	+10%
2017年	395	150	50	15	610	-2%
2018年	400	150	50	13	613	+30%
2019年	380	150	50	13	593	-2%
2020年	350	150	50	13	563	-9%
2021年	380	150	50	13	593	+8%
2022年	390	150	50	13	603	+2%
2023年	400	150	50	13	613	-1%
2024年	410	150	50	13	623	+8%
2025年	400	420	50	13	883	+10%

注：2025年数据中半钢替换需求跃升至420百万条，带动合计需求显著增长。数据来源：米其林官网，申万宏源研究

从2009—2025年全球半钢及全钢胎需求的变化来看，可以提炼出三个关键判断：
全球轮胎总需求从460百万条增至约600百万条，十六年增长约30%。图片数据显示，2009年全球轮胎总需求为460百万条，2025年达约600百万条，累计增长约30%，年均复合增速约1.7%。轮胎需求整体呈现稳步增长态势，仅2020年受疫情影响出现短暂下滑（-9%）。
半钢替换需求增速最快，2015年后加速增长。图片数据显示，半钢替换需求从2009年的150百万条增至2025年的420百万条，增长180%。2015—2025年十年间从约150百万条跃升至420百万条，增长约2.8倍。半钢替换市场的快速扩张反映了全球汽车保有量提升及消费者对乘用车轮胎更换需求的持续释放。
全钢配套需求稳定在50—60百万条区间，全钢替换需求维持在130—150百万条。图片数据显示，全钢配套需求在2009—2025年间稳定在50—60百万条区间，波动较小；全钢替换需求在130—150百万条之间小幅波动。全钢胎需求整体受商用车产量及物流运输需求影响，增长斜率远低于半钢替换市场。