房地产：为什么美国房屋建筑商转向轻资产.pdf

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1、US Homebuilders:From Landlords to StrategistsUS Housing is dominated by Single Family HomesSingle Family69%Multifamily31%US RESIDENTIAL STARTS(2023)Source:US Census;NAHB;PPFAS ResearchLand Plot is subdivided into LotsSource:YouTube-Building an Entire Residential Subdivision from Start to FinishMajor

2、 US Homebuilders2024 Rank Company2023 Total Closings2023 Gross Revenue1D.R.Horton90,777$32,295 2Lennar Corp73,087$32,459 3PulteGroup28,603$15,598 4NVR20,662$9,314 5Meritage Homes13,976$6,056 6KB Home13,236$6,381 7Taylor Morrison11,495$7,200 8Clayton Properties Group9,957$3,993 9Toll Brothers9,597$9,

3、866 10Century Communities9,568$3,604 Source:Builder MagazineGreat Financial Crisis Boom&BustSubprime mortgage led Housing Boom667 1,283 19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005Houses Sold(000)15929719951996199719981999200020012002200320042005Avg Sale Price New Privately-Owned Houses Sold($000)So

4、urce:US Census;NAHB;PPFAS ResearchHousing Boom:US Homebuilders expanded aggressivelyUS Homebuilders expanded aggressively Grew Aggressively;Funded by Debt Bought large tracts of land and Built Inventory“When the music stops,in terms of liquidity,things will be complicated.But as long as the music is

5、 playing,youve got to get up and dance”-Citigroup CEO Chuck PrinceThe music stopped with the Crash of 2008ButNot all builders had such a bad time-50-33-25-19-16-12-1210PHMKBDHIMTHLENSKYTOLNVRAvg Return on Tangible Equity:2008-2011Source:TIKR;Bloomberg;PPFAS ResearchButNot all builders had such a bad

6、 time1.31.311.321.361.51.531.992.65KBLENTOLPHMMTHDHISKYNVRPrice to Tangible Book(2011)Source:TIKR;Bloomberg;PPFAS ResearchReal Estate Development:The Traditional wayLand Development is very time consuming and expensiveLand Development is very time consuming and expensiveLand(Finished lot)is 20-30%of