充满信心地发放汽车贷款.pdf

1、2024 US Financial Services Summit1Originating Auto Loans With ConfidenceMay 8,2024Eric Kohn1 2024 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved2Agenda21.Consumer Credit Market:Score Migration and Credit Tightening2.Auto Credit Market:Cross-Wallet Debt and Affordability3.Proof of Concept Models:Pre-Pandemic(201

2、8)vs.Post-Pandemic(2022)2024 US Financial Services Summit 2024 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved31.Consumer Credit Market 2024 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved4Source:Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco,FREDConsumer savings rates grew substantially during the pandemic but now sit below pre-pand

3、emic normsPandemic StimulusSavings rate falls below pre-pandemic levels*Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income(DPI)20240%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%20162017201820192020202120222023Personal Savings Rate*(%)Personal Savings Rate 2024 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved5Pandemic stimulus

4、,accommodations and a temporary drop in spending drove positive consumer credit score migration 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%Q4 2019Q4 2022Score bandAVG-19%-5%3%10%8%VantageScore 4.0 Credit Score Distribution on Credit-Active Consumers 2024 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved6Consumers with the greatest pos

5、itive score migration had the highest delinquency rates6Q3 2018 OriginationsQ3 2022 OriginationsSource:TransUnion US consumer credit database2.52%1.62%1.47%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%Bad%in 15 monthsHigh MigratorsLow MigratorsNegative Migrators4.36%2.34%2.11%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%Bad%in 15 monthsHigh

6、 MigratorsLow MigratorsNegative MigratorsVantageScore 4.0 credit score rangesSubprime=300-600,Near prime=601-660,Prime=661-720,Prime plus=721-780,Super prime=781+High Migrators:score change=46 pts,measured 27mo and 3mo before originationLow Migrators:score change between-20 and+45 pts,measured 27mo