海德鲁-SMM_conference.pdf

1、Marian Scheffer,Head of Market Analysis Hydro Aluminium30%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%020 00040 00060 00080 000100 000120 000140 0002011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032PrimaryRecyclingTMRShare of recyclingGlobal primary and recycling development(000t)Gl

2、obal aluminium scrap collection(000t)010 00020 00030 00040 00050 00060 0002011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032Post-consumer scrapPre consumer scrapSource:CRU,Hydro analysis4Source:CRU,Reuters,Washington Post,Fastmarkets,Hydro AnalysisCapacity cap a

3、ppears to hold,latest production increase“last push”05 00010 00015 00020 00025 00030 00035 00040 00045 00050 000201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030China capacityCapacity capChina primary capacity(000t)5Vast majority will be based on fossil fuels.Sourc

4、e:CRU,Hydro analysisSmelter expansions in World ex.China 22-32(000t)050010001500200025003000IndonesiaOthersMiddleEastCentral&SouthAmericaIndiaRussiaSmelter expansions emissions profile 53%30%17%HighMediumLow7Strongest growth is expected in post consumer scrapEuropean aluminium market(000t)Scrap coll

5、ection Europe(000t)Source:CRU,Hydro analysis0%10%20%30%40%50%60%02 0004 0006 0008 00010 00012 00014 00016 00018 00020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033PrimaryRecyclingTMRShare of recycling02 0004 0006 0008 00010 00012 00020112012201320142015201

6、620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033Pre consumer scrapPost consumer scrap81.3 million tons,or 50%,of EU primary production has been curtailed since 2021*Smelter based on German 1Y power and spot alumina European Gas prices(EUR/MWh)European smelter margin*per VAP(USD/