俄铝--EN--2024_04. SMM Conference_FINAL_sent_15.04.2024_IS.pdf

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1、Aluminium market outlookInga SimonenkoRusal Marketing GmbHMarket Intelligence and Commercial Sustainability DirectorSeeking new horizons:sources of the growth in a challenging market environment2024 SMM(19th)Aluminium Industry ConferenceApril 24-26,2024 Chongqing,ChinaUnderstanding Aluminium Demand

2、Dynamics in Market Complexity Forecast vs RealityGLOBAL PRIMARY ALUMINIUM DEMAND43.139.940.340.440.942.834.331.129.930.729.327.577.471.070.171.270.270.3Oct-18Oct-19Oct-20Oct-21Oct-22Actual2023Ex-ChinaChinaDate of the given forecast for 2023In million tonnesSource:CRU,IHS/Platts,BloombergNEF,Statista

3、,Global Data Energy,UC Rusal analysisBEV SALES2017Growing steadily in the next few years,from the record 700,000 seen in 2016 to 3 million by 2021.forecast2021fact4.8Mio BEV sold worldwide2023fact9.9Mio BEV sold worldwideGLOBAL LCV PRODUCTION107.489.991.887.990.1Oct-17Nov-20May-21May-22Actual 2023Da

4、te of the given forecast for 2023In million vehiclesGLOBAL PV INSTALLATION2017Global PV capacity is expected to reach 969 GW by 2025forecast2022factGlobal cumulative solar PV capacity amounted to 1,177 GW1,177 GW2023factGlobal cumulative solar PV capacity amounted to 1,620 GW1,620 GW2Growth of globa

5、l primary aluminium market slowed down amid deep demand contraction in the World ex-ChinaCHINAWORLD EX-CHINA27.4MtLowest level since 2015-3.7%+4.9%Dynamics in 20231.6SuplusDynamics in 202342.8MtGrowth rate slowsExcept pandemic 20201.3Deficit32023Only two sectors of end-use demand were growing in 202

6、34GROWTHSTAGNATIONElectricity generation&distributionAutomotivePackagingConstructionMachinery and equipment GLOBAL ALUMINIUM DEMAND GROWTH IN 2023 BY END-USE SECTORIn million tones+1.5%05101520252022202320242030TXDXElectricity grid expansion will increase aluminium consumption5GLOBAL GRID INVESTMENT