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图表164.长端收益率与通胀表现相关（%)

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中国银行：2026中国银行个人金融全球资产配置白皮书（162页）.pdf

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债券篇：美债配置价值延续，中债收敛转向震荡展望2026年，宏观基本面延续弱复苏，资金面在宏观取向一致的支持性政策下预计保持稳定偏松，必要时的降准降息仍属于政策选择项，利率债或处于“上有顶、下有底”的区间震荡格局，利率中枢仍有下降空间，但幅度 4.2.1.1通胀温和修复，难成政策肘变化趋势尚未出现改善迹象，2026年通胀预计温和修复。猪价方面，母猪存栏量仍在高位，产能去化不足，猪价变动处于2022年以来的周期尾部，价格反弹尚需时间。原油方面，供需失衡仍是影响油价的主要因素，美国原油产能的增加、全球经济增长放缓和新能源兴起带来的需求疲弱大概率在2026年延续，高库存高供给难以支撑油价回升。历史上猪价、油价共振带来的CPI明显上行较难在2026年重现。相较而言，“反内卷”政策推进下，上游价格改善带来的PPI回升幅度更值得关注。从通胀对债券收益率的影响逻辑，一是价格大幅回升对货币政策的制约，央行收紧流动性，推动收益率上行；二是通胀回升对应基本面回暖，为对债券整体尤其是长端品种形成压力。若“反内卷”政策推动价格向中下游传导，伴随着社融、地产等需求数据回暖，则通胀预期或将切实对收益率产生影响，但此种场景短期发生概率不高。本轮 PPI回升在行业自律式的“反内卷”政策下或更温和，货币政策也难因通胀回升转向。 4.2.1.2供需结构差异，关注机构行为 2025年宏观政策靠前发力，赤字率突破3%至4%，广义的赤字规模达到13.9万亿元。政府债整体发行规模及节奏显著快于往年同期，货币政策在债券供给压力较大的阶段予以流动性支持，债券供需总量平衡，资产荒缓解，但品种存在期限差异。从供给看，2025年，利率债累计发行33.04万亿元，净融资额16.02万亿元，较同期新增 3.08万亿元；国债、地方债、政金债净融资额分别增2.08万亿、0.48万亿、0.52万亿，期限上呈现中长端及超长端品种供给规模多增的情况，增量占比接近40%。

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