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2终点利率越高，意味着收益率曲线倒挂加深
2终点利率越高，意味着收益率曲线倒挂加深
行业数据
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图片属性
图片格式：PNG
图片大小：144KB
图片尺寸：1742*1038
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所属报告：
贵金属研究专题系列二：再论金银蓄势迎接“主升浪”-230222（20页）.pdf
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图17：.肯尼亚国债收益率曲线 （百分比）
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行业数据
2026-07-21
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当周，美、英、德10Y国债收益率走势
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行业数据
2026-07-21
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当周，新兴市场10Y国债收益率悉数上涨
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行业数据
2026-07-21
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当周，发达国家10Y国债收益率多数上涨
fCDlm73lrrYgfCAxMFnlm73lgLrmlLbnm4rnjoflj5jljJYgKGJwKSB8CnwgOi0tLSB8IDotLS0gfAp8IOe+juWbvSB8IC0xIHwKfCDlvrflm70gfCA2IHwKfCDms5Xlm70gfCAxMCB8Cnwg6Iux5Zu9IHwgNyB8Cnwg5oSP5aSn5YipIHwgMTUgfAp8IOaXpeacrCB8IC00IHwKCioq6LWE5paZ5p2l5rqQ77yaV2luZO+8jOeUs+S4h+Wuj+a6kOeglOeptioq
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行业数据
2026-07-21
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图表5银行在国债收益率曲线的形成与传导中发挥决定性作用
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2026-07-20
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图表3近年来，央行屡次提及国债收益率曲线的金融市场定价基准作用
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ICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwKCui1hOaWmeadpea6kO+8mndpbmTvvIzljY7liJvor4HliLg=
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2026-07-20
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图表30美国国债收益率显著上行
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2026-07-14
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十年期国债收益率走势
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行业数据
2026-07-10
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30年国债收益率走势
fCDml7bpl7QgICB8IOaUtuebiueOhyB8CnwtLS0tLS0tLXwtLS0tLS0tLXwKfCAyMDI0LTAxIHwgMi44JSAgIHwKfCAyMDI0LTAyIHwgMi42JSAgIHwKfCAyMDI0LTAzIHwgMi41JSAgIHwKfCAyMDI0LTA0IHwgMi41JSAgIHwKfCAyMDI0LTA1IHwgMi42JSAgIHwKfCAyMDI0LTA2IHwgMi41JSAgIHwKfCAyMDI0LTA3IHwgMi40JSAgIHwKfCAyMDI0LTA4IHwgMi4zJSAgIHwKfCAyMDI0LTA5IHwgMi4yJSAgIHwKfCAyMDI0LTEwIHwgMi4xJSAgIHwKfCAyMDI0LTExIHwgMi4zJSAgIHwKfCAyMDI0LTEyIHwgMS45JSAgIHwKfCAyMDI1LTAxIHwgMS44JSAgIHwKfCAyMDI1LTAyIHwgMS45JSAgIHwKfCAyMDI1LTAzIHwgMi4xJSAgIHwKfCAyMDI1LTA0IHwgMS45JSAgIHwKfCAyMDI1LTA1IHwgMS45JSAgIHwKfCAyMDI1LTA2IHwgMS45JSAgIHwKfCAyMDI1LTA3IHwgMS45JSAgIHwKfCAyMDI1LTA4IHwgMi4wJSAgIHwKfCAyMDI1LTA5IHwgMi4xJSAgIHwKfCAyMDI1LTEwIHwgMi4yJSAgIHwKfCAyMDI1LTExIHwgMi4zJSAgIHwKfCAyMDI1LTEyIHwgMi4yJSAgIHwKfCAyMDI2LTAxIHwgMi4zJSAgIHwKfCAyMDI2LTAyIHwgMi40JSAgIHwKfCAyMDI2LTAzIHwgMi40JSAgIHwKfCAyMDI2LTA0IHwgMi4zJSAgIHwKfCAyMDI2LTA1IHwgMi4yJSAgIHwKfCAyMDI2LTA2IHwgMi4yJSAgIHwKCui1hOaWmeadpea6kO+8muS4reWbveWAuuWIuOS/oeaBr+e9keOAgeaLm+WVhuivgeWIuA==
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2026-07-10
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美国REITs资本化率和10年期国债收益率
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行业数据
2026-07-06
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当周，美、英、德10Y国债收益率走势
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行业数据
2026-07-06
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当周，发达国家10Y国债收益率悉数上涨
fCDlm73lrrYgICB8IDEwWeWbveWAuuaUtuebiueOh+aCieaVsOS4iua2qO+8iGJw77yJIHwKfC0tLS0tLS0tfC0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tfAp8IOe+juWbvSAgIHwgMTEgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwKfCDlvrflm70gICB8IDggICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICB8Cnwg5rOV5Zu9ICAgfCA5ICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgfAp8IOiLseWbvSAgIHwgMyAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwKfCDmhI/lpKfliKkgfCAxMyAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgfAp8IOaXpeacrCAgIHwgMTcgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwKCui1hOaWmeadpea6kO+8mldpbmTvvIznlLPkuIflro/mupDnoJTnqbY=
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行业数据
2026-07-06
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当周，新兴市场10Y国债收益率多数上涨
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行业数据
2026-07-06
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10年美国国债收益率走势和联邦基金利
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行业数据
2026-07-02
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10年中债国债到期收益率和7天逆回购
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行业数据
2026-07-02
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最新数据
全球全年龄段奶粉市场规模（亿美元）
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行业数据
2026-07-30
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2026-07-30
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全球药用级益生菌市场规模（百万美元）
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2026-07-30
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全球益生菌膳食补充剂市场规模及增速
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行业数据
2026-07-30
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全球拥有AKK专利菌株的核心企业
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行业数据
2026-07-30
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伴随着终点利率预期的再度修正，美债长端名义利率的上行风险已经有限。美联储最近一直吹风“限制性利率区间”，目前最可信的指标是“联邦基金目标利率—核心 PCE 同比”（后文称“实际政策利率”）。实际政策利率已经回正，意味着美联储加息周期正式步入尾声。退一步讲，即便美联储未来加息多次，可能主要影响短端名义利率，长端名义利率对终点利率越发钝化。原因在于，期限利差与政策利率高度反向，终点利率越高，意味着收益率曲线倒挂加深。我们预计，美债长端利率的顶部区间大概在 4-4.2%，破前高的风险有限。
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贵金属研究专题系列二：再论金银蓄势迎接“主升浪”-230222（20页）.pdf
图9美国缺勤率较疫情前明显提升
图8美国工时仍在趋势下滑
美国薪资仍在趋势下滑
图6美国兼职工占比明显提升
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