1、25411-16Trump put*6-10*390%Macrobond(Yale Budget Lab)2025516https:/budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-may-12-2025415512182518301835184018451850185518601865187018751880188518901895190019051910191519201925193019351940194519501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015202020252010030
2、60504041525.6%51215.4%19471934(Trade agreement)1930(Smoot-Hawley)1913(Underwood law)1861(Morrill Tariff)1828(Tariff of Abominations)42025 2025(CLO)/20255315*%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -806-60-40-200204060Invesco Solutions201012025412*(Alternative
3、s Opportunities)19701202541301251201151101051009590858020252020201520102005200019951990198519801975197012025GDP0.0-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.8 7202552202513120255162025GDP2025151120222025G10500 MSCIMSCI19701=1001970120254202552501001502002503003504002025820202015019701975198019851990199520002005
4、20100.80.91.01.11.21.31.41.50.7241 244 247 MSCI2410 251 254MSCIDeepSeekMSCI20241220255161.7 1.6ChatGPTOpenAI 20221130ChatGPTDeepSeekDeepSeekR1R12025120127MSCIMSCI202542312051015202530202211ChatGPT 20251DeepSeek20254109DeepSeekR12022ChatGPT20251DeepSeekDeepSeek1DeepSeek1010(%)0123456787.446.585.164.7
5、74.7510 MBS =MBS=(MBS)=20254293.622.84/32.115.82023202020172014201120232020201720142011202320202014 2017201101020304050602018161412108642011202532025516(Treasury International Capital)(ADR)2011120253%Trump putTrump put305%430 5%5.00%30 30%20241220255163.754.004.254.504.755.005.2525425124102472442419
6、020255512 Trump put(Inflation Reduction Act)CHIPS Act2024GDP98%GDP 122%(TCJA)2017 820278(CDS)1990-2035GDPCBO20352030202520001990 1995020406080100120140-4-202468101214162005 2010 2015 20202017201719902025202512025320172025 13 GDP3%33(Friedri