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19、EEPA.Vm.ubcE 3.EFcbkWp.sVWXqLE 2“_“bc”XjWE=SLM,“”sA_FEFE 20 五安全工具：特朗普手中的“王牌”FGHbc2RLMFFC.Dhs“J0”E=KXkUC“J0”“J0”s=c 1.w!WXgRRSs23=JE 2.-4.XR.5&“!E 3.FZIb0E:;:;“#$%#$%&”cJ0ZscJ0Zs F23_A5rs)E 2.“K”c F23_J0A5uZ.*GsP2sCFsJ0Zm_B_ryJ9E 3.“”c F23_J0A5o0P2s l56N+sFU 21 lFs“J0Z”_E:h;:h;“”s”zcJ0Zms”zcJ0Zm zF23

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23、”c I-H.dE.fgEbC 24 Wp7VbCsZt“”1E 2.“bV”c B52s“bV”bcIVs/%XE 3.Xsy“5”c 0C.-fgb0k“”E WOxdE zdIfEJ2X“5”Tc 1.“Ks2”c Ipst/qE 2.“bqV”c B5IVE 3.“2”c Ie”&3OR2;KZt?TqDBE:;:;“RJ0sRJ0s”cc 01J0Oa01J0Oa 1.01J0Oa.c b0qmdeumsJ07lC01J0Oa.E 2.q.EFc zRS“qsJ0Y-b0kqsqc239Cq.sEFE 3.01Yc“J0”s5b001sYsDBE:;:;“”ckws”zckws”z=

24、E”7y2s1)bkws”zc 1.“23”c us lrs23_)M _Xl56N+sFUE 25 2.“J0EF”czRS(sJ0Y-b0LEMCq.E 3.“bc”c.2pbCbcyF%$sE 4.“gFe”cb0deNWWXK“gFH”E 26 七结语：特朗普的政策逻辑 FFLMpU=saO7d*+S2s2vwc:;GAc56:;GAc56“”1.4D 2.23IJ.K 3.FIGH:;Lc.TFI:;Lc.TFI 1.?2.RS23IJ 3.Z.sVWXqL:mS.VWXs“!”;:h;(:h;(1.:1;“_a”:2;2:3;“u”bc:4;RyzsFsFI 2.bc2:1;cde

25、uiC23i“bcj”.fgE:2;kcB5BJ:IEEPA;.Vm.ubcE 3.J0:1;RJ0s2Il“?J0Zm”u“Ce23s”F 27 ds23F!Xg._FGrysE:2;J0Z2b0Swus(RMF23_J0A5sFsws2E:I;:I;1.“”bc”c”It,debcpE 2.“Q”cs2gh“IE 3.“|”cSwF23_J0A5sFsJs2E 4.“PS”ct5bc2”K12E:;EFd:;EFd 1.“j”cs23_7VsE 2.“5T”cds“d”E 3.“3”cI4_SF2yqE:;F”z:;F”z 1.23(.cusl_XE 2.J0Oacs“J0Z”bQq.EF

26、bE 3.cbcBcKbyF%$sE 4.gFecbQNWWXK“gFH”E 2b”5”,5bcE”XJ0E F2p234(sIJK.b0”S:;”,S:zsbcZts;ECWOx2ps=E 28 sZtl5&EELMXRE 29 参考文献 1.-u./9y2024E 2.Autor,David,David Dorn and Gordon Hanson.The China shock,learning from labor-market adjustment to large changes in trade.Annual Review of Economics 8,2016.3.Autor,

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42、cyKZmZmZm“zXXhiZm%ZmUsZm4Fhs9Ew0X4.E BseAZmsABGEBseAXT1eA2eAEFBseAC2s9eAMEF2BseAC_sR92seAE Z“B”5KmsAB“hijsxs3+4(dUAB“?,UVYE II:2024-2034;!nt0g?yKFSUsE KFSUsL CDP 4ci 5%E GDP nF 2035 E K*FLsAbRntUc0qkE 0c7psbsJb4d;7uk3E4Kk3s*iCsKI*sz5+E“Kk3”sjDEABGK(s|TuKB.st/QEF|T“Kk3”stzKF1CDsfFHhiB*FLE 41 qcF 20 25 s“”KiCsDLM_q EqOqq!E“”OhA5aciCFkw4s/Xu3+4(EZ.“”squEhb“&4s_yEqiCTA5s“ZmB”rQyMZsETA5CesAB)eA eAE feA s2Zt!)C!sEE!sCs+fEFAbIsq!IiFms!/X/gEFqE kc*FfBu1sZukEsZm!y4EmsZmXIU!Cec 0kwuM “z04kM hkwfMIFZmVK ELMMNfKmUkZkkwfkw sZm4(E qrstuvhttps:/