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敏感性分析—投资收益（万欧元）、内部收益率
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所属报告：
北方国际-风禾将起一体化国际工程平台雏形初现-220809（26页）.pdf
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图17：.肯尼亚国债收益率曲线 （百分比）
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行业数据
2026-07-21
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当周，美、英、德10Y国债收益率走势
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2026-07-21
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当周，新兴市场10Y国债收益率悉数上涨
fCDlm73lrrYv5Zyw5Yy6IHwgMTBZ5Zu95YC65pS255uK546H5Y+Y5YyWIChicCkgfAp8Oi0tLS0tLS0tLS06fDotLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tOnwKfCDms7Dlm70gfCA1IHwKfCDotorljZcgfCAwIHwKfCDljbDluqYgfCA2IHwKfCDlnJ/ogLPlhbYgfCA1NSB8Cnwg5Y2w5bC8IHwgMTUgfAp8IOWNl+mdniB8IDkgfAoKKirotYTmlpnmnaXmupDvvJpXaW5k77yM55Sz5LiH5a6P5rqQ56CU56m2Kio=
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行业数据
2026-07-21
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当周，发达国家10Y国债收益率多数上涨
fCDlm73lrrYgfCAxMFnlm73lgLrmlLbnm4rnjoflj5jljJYgKGJwKSB8CnwgOi0tLSB8IDotLS0gfAp8IOe+juWbvSB8IC0xIHwKfCDlvrflm70gfCA2IHwKfCDms5Xlm70gfCAxMCB8Cnwg6Iux5Zu9IHwgNyB8Cnwg5oSP5aSn5YipIHwgMTUgfAp8IOaXpeacrCB8IC00IHwKCioq6LWE5paZ5p2l5rqQ77yaV2luZO+8jOeUs+S4h+Wuj+a6kOeglOeptioq
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行业数据
2026-07-21
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图表5银行在国债收益率曲线的形成与传导中发挥决定性作用
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2026-07-20
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图表3近年来，央行屡次提及国债收益率曲线的金融市场定价基准作用
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ICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwKCui1hOaWmeadpea6kO+8mndpbmTvvIzljY7liJvor4HliLg=
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2026-07-20
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图表30美国国债收益率显著上行
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2026-07-14
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十年期国债收益率走势
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行业数据
2026-07-10
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30年国债收益率走势
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2026-07-10
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敏感性测算—玻璃基板（玻璃芯载板和中介层合计）中长期（2030年）市场空间（亿美元）
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行业数据
2026-07-08
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美国REITs资本化率和10年期国债收益率
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行业数据
2026-07-06
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绝对估值相对折现率和永续增长率的敏感性分析（元）
fCDmsLjnu63lop7plb/njoflj5jljJYgfCA5LjIlIHwgOS4zJSB8IDkuNCUgfCA5LjUlIHwgOS42JSB8CnwtLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tfC0tLS0tLXwtLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tfC0tLS0tLXwtLS0tLS18CnwgMi40JSAgICAgICAgICAgfCA1MC42M3wgNDkuNzF8IDQ4LjgyfCA0Ny45NXwgNDcuMTB8CnwgMi4yJSAgICAgICAgICAgfCA0OS41N3wgNDguNjh8IDQ3LjgzfCA0Ni45OXwgNDYuMTh8CnwgMi4wJSAgICAgICAgICAgfCA0OC41NnwgNDcuNzF8IDQ2Ljg5fCA0Ni4wOXwgNDUuMzF8CnwgMS44JSAgICAgICAgICAgfCA0Ny42MXwgNDYuODB8IDQ2LjAwfCA0NS4yM3wgNDQuNDh8CnwgMS42JSAgICAgICAgICAgfCA0Ni43MXwgNDUuOTN8IDQ1LjE2fCA0NC40MnwgNDMuNzB8CgrotYTmlpnmnaXmupDvvJrlm73kv6Hor4HliLjnu4/mtY7noJTnqbbmiYDliIbmnpA=
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行业数据
2026-07-06
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当周，美、英、德10Y国债收益率走势
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行业数据
2026-07-06
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当周，发达国家10Y国债收益率悉数上涨
fCDlm73lrrYgICB8IDEwWeWbveWAuuaUtuebiueOh+aCieaVsOS4iua2qO+8iGJw77yJIHwKfC0tLS0tLS0tfC0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tfAp8IOe+juWbvSAgIHwgMTEgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwKfCDlvrflm70gICB8IDggICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICB8Cnwg5rOV5Zu9ICAgfCA5ICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgfAp8IOiLseWbvSAgIHwgMyAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwKfCDmhI/lpKfliKkgfCAxMyAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgfAp8IOaXpeacrCAgIHwgMTcgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwKCui1hOaWmeadpea6kO+8mldpbmTvvIznlLPkuIflro/mupDnoJTnqbY=
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行业数据
2026-07-06
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绝对估值相对折现率和永续增长率的敏感性分析（元）
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行业数据
2026-07-06
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天然气和煤炭是欧盟主要的发电来源之一，约占 2021 年发电量的 1/3。欧洲天然气价格与电价关联度高，欧洲天然气价格与欧盟 27 国 HICP 电价指数关联系数达 90%。去年欧洲能源危机爆发，欧洲天然气价格猛增。俄乌冲突后，欧洲能源短缺程度更胜于过去，而上月 25 日，俄罗斯国有能源生产商 Gazprom 公司更是表示，要将使北溪 1 号欧的天然气运输量由此前的 40%降至 20%，这项举措将进一步减少俄罗斯对欧洲的天然气供应，欧洲的电价预计将维持高位。以 200 欧元/MWH 的单价估计，若项目每年的发电量达到规划，该项目每年有望提供 1.06 亿欧元的发电收入，每年利润可达 8869 万欧元，估算内部收益率约 46.48%，假设今年能达到规划发电量的 80%，以同样单价估算，预计今年项目发电收入可达到 8486 万欧元发电收入，贡献发电利润 6747 万欧元发电利润。
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