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2026年存在复刻2023年的可能性
2026年存在复刻2023年的可能性
行业数据
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所属报告：
【国金证券】春夏秋冬又一春：2026年债券市场展望-251217（31页）.pdf
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图2.5：.低迷的就业可能开始影响国家养老金的可持续性
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行业数据
2026-07-21
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全球资金环境进一步宽松的可能性边际下降
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行业数据
2026-04-28
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按国家划分的未来2-3年前往英国的可能性
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行业数据
2026-03-05
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如果引入旅遊稅，訪問的可能性與之前的訪問可能回答相比如何
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行业数据
2026-03-05
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未来2-3年前往英国的可能性（不包括英国受访者）
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行业数据
2026-03-05
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旅游税对访问英国可能性的影响：英国旅行者
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行业数据
2026-03-05
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AI高绩效企业将智能体部署推进至规模化阶段的可能性远高于其他企业。
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市场规模
2025-12-19
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表3其他具有对外授权许可交易可能性的国产创新药
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行业数据
2025-12-16
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图表4高碳产业存在“内卷式”竞争的可能性评估（2024年）
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2025-12-04
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图20、美国对外净债务高达GDP的90%，对其债权国加大贸易摩擦与贬值“贬值赖债”可能性提高
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2025-11-19
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特朗普政府可能使用的替代性关税政策一览
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政策法规
2025-11-18
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2025年钻的油井量变化的可能性（受访者比例）
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2025-11-14
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从政策性金融工具资金投放到实体经济融资需求回暖可能存
fCDml7bpl7TljLrpl7QgICAgICAgfCDmlL/nrZbmgKfph5Hono3lt6XlhbfnsbvlnosgICB8IOaKleaUvumHkeminSAgICAgfAp8LS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLXwtLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tfC0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tfAp8IDIwMTUgLSAyMDE35bm0ICB8IOS4k+mhueW7uuiuvuWAuiAgICAgICAgICAgfCAy5LiH5Lq/5YWDICAgICAgfAp8IDIwMjLlubQ3IC0gMTHmnIggfCDph5Hono3lt6XlhbfotYTph5EgICAgICAgICB8IDcsMzk55Lq/5YWDICAgIHwKCui1hOaWmeadpea6kO+8mldpbmTvvIzljY7ms7DnoJTnqbY=
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政策法规
2025-08-19
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从政策性金融工具资金投放到实体经济融资需求回暖可能存
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政策法规
2025-08-19
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全球全年龄段奶粉市场规模（亿美元）
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2026-07-30
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2026-07-30
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2026-07-30
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2026-07-30
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2026-07-30
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总结而言，我们倾向认为，场景三出现的概率较高。综合历史经验规律与当前宏观特殊性，2026 年债券市场可能运行在一个方向并非单边、同时波动较今年放大的区间之中。一方面，旧动能尚未形成趋势性修复，新动能对总量的拉动仍有边界，宏观基本面更接近“名义改善、实际待提振”的组合，难以支撑利率长期维持高位；另一方面，政策取向趋于克制，宽松节奏或相对温和，也限制了利率大幅下行的想象空间。在此背景下，明年债市建议重点参考 2022年下半年至 2023 年的走势：前期调整的充分程度，将直接决定后续行情的安全边际；波动放大本身将成为明年的主要特征，策略重心在于捕捉利差调整充分后的潜在拐点。
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【国金证券】春夏秋冬又一春：2026年债券市场展望-251217（31页）.pdf
2024年7月以来，DR001运行区间出现较为明确的顶部和底部，%
震荡年的降息预期整体平稳或向谨慎修正
震荡年的资金利率通常围绕政策利率附近波动
高频指标整体呈震荡同时底部温和抬升的特征
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