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美国消费品进口尚未达到需求的平衡点
美国消费品进口尚未达到需求的平衡点
行业数据
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所属报告：
“月度前瞻”系列专题之二：8月经济“景气”分水岭？-250902（25页）.pdf
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图33我国城镇居民平均每百户耐用消费品拥有量
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今年5月国内社会消费品零售总额环比高于季节性
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相对于美国消费需求，消费品进口明显不足；今年美国消费品进口已在回升
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行业数据
2026-06-02
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美国耐用消费品库存、订单量（剔除CPI影响，亿美元）
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行业数据
2026-04-30
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图60：城乡消费者知道“消费品以旧换新”政策的比重
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政策法规
2026-04-27
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我国社会消费品零售总额当月值及同比
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行业数据
2026-04-23
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我国社会消费品零售总额累计值及同比
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行业数据
2026-04-23
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基数走高与“转口关税”或扰动出口，但在外需改善与份额提升下，8 月出口回落压力或相对可控。受“对等关税”和“转口贸易关税”落地影响，我国对东盟出口短期或有回落压力。但今年以来我国出口更多受外需改善与份额提升等中期因素支撑，目前美国进口或仍处回升周期中，或也会拉动我国对东盟出口；并且新兴国家经济体的投资需求增多，叠加市场份额更多向中国进口倾斜，8 月出口的下行压力或相对可控。领先指标中加工贸易进口领先出口 1 个月，7 月加工贸易进口增速回升 2.2pct 至 7.8%，出口生产指标仅较前月小幅回落 0.2pct、同比录得 2%。综合来看，8 月出口预计 5.1%。
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