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图表83.中美2018年贸易战和2025年关税战期间资产表现对比

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所属报告：

中国银行：2026中国银行个人金融全球资产配置白皮书（162页）.pdf

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中国A股：慢牛格局基本形成，政经互 3.1.1政策效果初见成效，慢牛格局基本形成 3.1.1.1百年变局“东升西荡”，重估中国时机成熟 2025年，全球面临的最大不确定性因素为美国面向多国的、多轮次的“对等关税”政策，打破了全球经济的稳定形态，为全球主要经济体及其自身发展带来严重负面影响。“失道寡助”的单边政策令“美国例外论”趋向终结，也令“东升西荡”从理论研讨走进现实。中国政策的“稳定性、连续性、确定性”在过去几年得到检验证实，“相信中国就是相信明天，投资中国就是投资未来”的理念已得到全球资金的认同，这可以从2018年和2025年中美两轮 2018年，在中美贸易战1.0第一阶段（2018年3月22日一12月1日），中国资产中股市大跌、汇率大幅贬值、仅债券上涨3.77%（如果考虑汇率因素，债券实际收益率也是负值）；反观美国，其股市、债市和美元指数全数上涨，市场对2018年贸易战中国受损给予定价。2025年，“对等关税”政策将中美拉入贸易战2.0阶段，从2025年 4月2日到5月13日（中美双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》)期间，中国股市与美股同涨同跌、幅度相当，人民币汇率升值、中国国债上涨；反观美国，其股市、债市和美元指数在冲击最激烈的阶段呈现“股债汇三杀”局争、善于斗争，展现了中国产业链实力和坚定推进全球化的决心，依法依规与美国霸权展开经贸斗争并取得阶段性成果。美国近期颁布的《国家安全战略》宣称，将战略重心转向本土与西半球，承认中美是“实力近乎对等国家”，并将中国定位为“首要经济竞争对手”。结合中美元首釜山会唔后特朗普政府道出G2（GroupofTwo，两国集团）强国的关键核心要素，其中强大的货币居于首位。《“十五五”规划建议》中提出“推进人民币国际化”，我们预计 “十五五”期间人民币国际化将是核心金融工作之一，而人民币国际化的推进必然伴随中国资产的国际化，要么产

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