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计算机对制造业增长的贡献率先上后下（%）
计算机对制造业增长的贡献率先上后下（%）
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所属报告：
宏观深度报告：如何看待AI泡沫破灭论？-251126（16页）.pdf
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近十年基金持有计算机股票仓位变化情况（左轴：计算机仓位占比，右轴：指数）
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行业数据
2026-07-20
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图9美国二战后制造业产能利用率保持高位
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行业数据
2026-07-20
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图41中国制造业增加值占全球近30%
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行业数据
2026-07-20
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图42中国制造业产出约占全球40%
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行业数据
2026-07-20
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鱼子酱上、中、下游产业链
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产业链
2026-07-20
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图21、我国制造业增加值和军贸占全球的比重
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行业数据
2026-07-16
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2021-2030年中国卫星制造业总收入（亿元）
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行业数据
2026-07-16
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内销上险竞争格局
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竞争格局
2026-07-14
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重卡上险市占率情况
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竞争格局
2026-07-14
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从投资结构来看，美国计算机行业的高景气度出现了向广义制造业扩散的特征。在 90年代尤其是中后段，美国计算机以及整体制造业的固定资产投资均在高利率的背景下维持了高增速的特征，但计算机的投资增速中枢远高于整体制造业。从贡献率来看，90 年代上半段计算机投资对制造业投资的贡献率整体处于上行期，96 年后进入下行期，在整体投资增速中枢仍高的情况下贡献率下行实质意味着计算机的高投资开始进一步向广义制造业扩散。
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宏观深度报告：如何看待AI泡沫破灭论？-251126（16页）.pdf
计算机和整体制造业固投增速在90年代逆风上行（%）
美国经济潜在增速在1996至2000年间大幅走高（%）
美国企业和居民互联网渗透率1996年后迅速提升（%）
美国联邦基金目标利率与10Y国债收益率走势
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2026-07-29
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