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图表233.白银连续多年持续供不应求（百万蛊司）

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所属报告：

中国银行：2026中国银行个人金融全球资产配置白皮书（162页）.pdf

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商品篇：黄金长牛不改，商品共振上行源汽车、电力电子、焊料和钎焊合金等领域。相对于黄金，白银的工业属性占比更高，从世界白银协会及世界黄金协 “4万亿刺激计划”大幅拉动了国内工业需求，推动了白银价格持续上行；2020一2021年，拜登政府推行清洁能源银处于供不应求的状态中，其供需缺口在2024年达到14890万蛊司，综合市场多家机构预期，白银紧张的供需基本面还将延续。从供给端看，白银总供给量中超八成来自矿产，多金属矿石伴生的白银则占世界白银矿产资源的三分之二以上，独立银矿产量占比较低，这就决定了白银的矿产量强依赖于伴生矿主金属（铜、铝、锌）的市场需求与价格，作为副产品的白银供给端弹性较小，在短期内无法实现大量增产。而从需求端看，得益于在新能源光伏、电车等领域的快速发展，中国成为工业用银的最大需求国家，《World Silver Survey2025》公布的数据显示，在 2024年全球工业用银总量的68050万蛊司中，来自中国的工业用银需求为27540万蛊司，占比超40%，远超出其他经济体，结合“十五五”时期重点发展的产业看，科创发展、能源革命和绿色发展的趋势将支撑白银下游产业发展，提振全球白银需求。综上所述，偏紧的需求基本面还将一定程度支撑白银价格，但对比2008一2011年期间和2020一2021年期间，我们认为2026年白银工业需求可能不会出现短期大幅扩张的情况，也意味着从工业属性看，银价超预期抬升、金银比突破当前的60进一步下行的可能相对有限。

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