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世界银行：2023-2026年国际大宗商品价格情况(2010=100)

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所属报告：

【国开证券】2026年宏观经济展望：蓄势待发向新而行-251209（41页）.pdf

打包全文图表

PPI方面，预计 2026年中枢修复上行至-0.5%左右，下半年存在转正可能性。若政策超预期加码，需求超预期复苏尤其是地产相关投资企稳反弹，则全年中枢有可能进一步上移。首先，从外需看，2026 年全球经济总体稳定，但关税等不确定性或形成拖累。关于大宗商品价格走势，世界银行在 2025年 10 月发布的《大宗商品市场展望》中预计，2026 年全球大宗商品价格将下跌约 7%，连续第 4年下跌，持续疲弱反映出全球经济活动低迷、贸易紧张局势与政策不确定性持续以及石油供应充足等因素的影响。其中，能源价格继 2025年预计同比下跌 12%之后，2026年再度下跌 10%；；金属和矿产价格将总体保持稳定；农产品价格在供应状况良好的情况下将小幅下跌。原油方面，预计 2026 年价格或小幅回落。需求放缓，一方面是近几年经济增速低于此前平均水平，另一方面新能源加快推广导致传统化石能源占比下降。供给方面，根据新华社的消息，欧佩克（OPEC）9月 7日发表声明说，欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国中的 8个主要产油国决定 10月日均增产 13.7万桶。11月 2日，欧佩克发表声明称，欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国中的 8个主要产油国决定 12月保持增产节奏，日均增产 13.7 万桶原油，但 2026 年前三个月将暂停增产计划。关于布伦特油价，世行在 10 月预计由于供强需弱，原油市场可能会面临严重过剩，2025年布伦特原油均价为每桶 68 美元，比 2024 年下跌 13美元，2026 年将进一步下跌至每桶 60 美元左右；EIA 在 11月的《短期能源展望》中预计 2026 年原油供给大于需求，其还预计 2026 年布伦特原油价格或下行至 55 美元/桶（较 9月预测上调 4美元/桶）。其次，从内需看，目前存在复苏偏弱的问题，但 2026 年作为 “十五五”开局之年稳增长可能加码，有助于提振工业品需求。同时，随着“反内卷”相关工作的持续开展，有望一定程度上促进物价合理回升。此外，关注 PPI基期轮换的影响。根据国家统计局官网资料，2010 年 PPI 统计调查制度进行了改革，自2011 年开始计算以 2010 年为基期的定基价格指数，并且每 5 年进行一次基期轮换，2026 年是下一轮调整期，基期轮换及权重调整有望一定程度上更为准确地反映 PPI 走势。

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