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图10：全球大宗商品价格（%，同比)

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所属报告：

中亚学院：2026中亚季度经济监测报告-第二十期（24页）.pdf

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随着中东危机升级，2026年初全球大宗商品价格飙升，CAREC地区贸易呈现两极分化：矿物出口国蓬勃发展，进口依赖国压力重重 2025年，全球大宗商品价格走势主要受需求疲软以及石油和天然气基本面供应过剩的影响，贸易紧张局势和不确定性推高了金价，黄金价格在2026年1月下旬突破每盎司均同比下跌7.7%）后，随着中东地缘政治冲突的爆发，世界银行大宗商品价格指数在 2026年3月同比大幅上涨25.4%。涨幅最显著的是能源价格，同比上涨37.7%，以及化肥价格，同比上涨42.5%，而金价则从先前的峰值回落，3月均价跌至约每盎司4855美元。由于燃料价格上涨的影响尚未完全显现，2026年2月至3月期间，食品和其他原材料的价格仍保持相对稳定。 2025年及2026年初，CAREC成员国贸易呈现分化态势：部分经济体出口强劲，而另一些经济体则持续面临结构性贸易逆差。出口方面，部分国家从煤炭和黄金等大宗商品的高价格及强劲的外部需求中受益。中国作为该地区最大的贸易伙伴和外部需求的主要来源继续发挥着重要作用。2026年一季度，蒙古国出口激增62.3%，主要得益于矿产品出口，尤其是煤炭、铜和黄金。塔吉克斯坦的出口增长也得益于矿产品出口的增加，乌兹别克斯坦的出口增长主要源于黄金。格鲁吉亚的出口更多受益于汽车和金属制品的转口贸易。然而，并非所有成员国都享受到了这些大宗商品带来的利好。阿塞拜疆的出口总额有所下降，尽管同期该国非石油出口有所增长。吉尔吉斯斯坦的出口显著下滑，巴基斯坦的出口因结构性挑战停滞不前。进口方面，许多CAREC国家强劲的国内需求推动了进口的增长。巴基斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦的进口增长主要源于对投资和消费品的需求，这也导致这些国家的贸易逆差不断扩大。格鲁吉亚和蒙古国减少了进口，这有助于缩小其贸易不平衡。阿富汗的贸易状况仍显脆弱，并受到边境关闭和地区动荡等因素制约。 2026年，CAREC 地区的域内贸易持续扩大，同比增长5.1%。尽管2025年该地区对其他CAREC成员国的总出口份额平均仍保持在4.4%左右，但各国间差异显著：从中国的2.8% 和阿塞拜疆的4.3%到蒙古国的 87.8%和土库曼斯坦的 85.4%不等。中国和哈萨克斯坦仍然是其他CAREC成员国的主要贸易伙伴。虽然巴基斯坦等一些国家正在通过改善跨境设施来推行深化一体化的政策，但阿富汗等其他国家仍然受到地缘政治动荡的制约，并越来越依赖中亚走廊进入全球市场。

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