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所属报告：
AI行业跟踪报告之十一：服务器AIGC拉动算力需求AI服务器加速成长-230416（24页）.pdf
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行业数据
2026-06-25
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2022-2026E全球服务器出货量
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行业数据
2026-06-25
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2026-06-18
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图表202022-2026年全球AI服务器出货量预测
fCDlubTku70gICB8IOWHuui0p+mHj++8iOS4h+WPsO+8iSB8IOWQjOavlO+8iCXvvIkgfAp8LS0tLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLXwtLS0tLS0tLS0tLXwKfCAyMDIyICAgfCA4NSAgICAgICAgICAgICB8IDE1ICAgICAgICB8CnwgMjAyMyAgIHwgMTE4ICAgICAgICAgICAgfCAzOCAgICAgICAgfAp8IDIwMjRFICB8IDE2NSAgICAgICAgICAgIHwgNDAgICAgICAgIHwKfCAyMDI1RSAgfCAyMDMgICAgICAgICAgICB8IDIzICAgICAgICB8CnwgMjAyNkUgIHwgMjQwICAgICAgICAgICAgfCAxOCAgICAgICAgfAoK6LWE5paZ5p2l5rqQ77yaVHJlbmRGb3JjZe+8jOW5s+WuieivgeWIuOeglOeptuaJgA==
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AI 推理服务器方面，单个 AI 应用如 ChatGPT 在初期便可带动推理服务器需求达 45 亿美元。据 Similarweb 数据，ChatGPT 官网在 2023 年 1 月 27 日-2 月 3日一周内吸引的每日访客数量高达 2500 万，假设平均针对 50 字的提问生成 400字的响应（即 450 字，对应 600token），根据 OneFlow 的数据和《Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models》，在推理过程中每个 token 的计算成本约为 2N Flops，其中 N 为模型参数数量，则在 ChatGPT4 一万亿参数中每个 token 需算力 2 万亿 Flops，且据 Chowdhery 等测算 GPT-3 训练期间 FLOPS 利用率为21.3% ， 则 可 得 每 人 每 次 提 问 需 算 力 5.6PetaFlops （ 2 万 亿 Flops* 600token/21.3%）。假设每日 2500 万人访问量，每人提问 10 次，且一天内平均分摊，则每秒算力需求约 16302 PetaFlops，假定访问峰值是一天均值的 5 倍，则每秒算力需求约 81508 PetaFlops。目前 AI 推理所使用的主流 GPU 是英伟达T4，一块英伟达 T4 GPU 可提供的混合精度算力为 65TFlops，则需约 125 万个T4 GPU 方可满足单日对 ChatGPT 的访问，对应 15.67 万台 8*T4 的服务器，一台 8*T4 服务器的价格约 29000 美元，则仅单个如 ChatGPT 的 AI 应用在初期便带来推理服务器需求约 45 亿美元。
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