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2025年12月利率点阵
2025年12月利率点阵
行业数据
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图片尺寸：1205*1012
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所属报告：
【国盛证券】兼评12月议息会议：怎么看2026年美联储降息节奏？-251211（5页）.pdf
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图40、中国香港Hibor-1个月利率
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行业数据
2025-12-25
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2026年1月利率维持不变的概率抬升
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行业数据
2025-12-15
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2026年1月FOMC单月利率变动概率
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行业数据
2025-12-15
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图表42025年10月VS12月利率声明对比
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行业数据
2025-12-15
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2025年9月利率点阵
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行业数据
2025-12-12
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2025年12月FOMC单月利率变动概率
fCDml6XmnJ8gICAgICAgfCAtMjVicHMgfCAwYnBzIHwgKzI1YnBzIHwKfC0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLXwtLS0tLS0tLXwtLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tLS18CnwgMjAyNS0xMS0xMiB8IDY3JSAgICB8IDM1JSAgfCAwJSAgICAgfAp8IDIwMjUtMTEtMjAgfCAyNyUgICAgfCA3NiUgIHwgMCUgICAgIHwKfCAyMDI1LTExLTI4IHwgNzklICAgIHwgMjIlICB8IDAlICAgICB8CgrotYTmlpnmnaXmupDvvJpXaW5k77yM5Y2O5rqQ6K+B5Yi456CU56m25omA
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行业数据
2025-12-01
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2025年12月FOMC单月利率变动概率
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行业数据
2025-11-17
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2025年12月FOMC单月利率变动概率
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行业数据
2025-11-03
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2025年10月FOMC单月利率变动概率
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行业数据
2025-09-22
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2025年7月FOMC会议单月利率变动概率
5Lul5LiL5piv5o+Q5Y+W55qE5pWw5o2u5bm255Sf5oiQ55qE6KGo5qC877yaCgp8IOaXpeacnyAgICAgICB8IC0yNWJwcyB8IDBicHMgfCArMjVicHMgfAp8LS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tfC0tLS0tLS0tfC0tLS0tLXwtLS0tLS0tLXwKfCAyMDI1LTA2LTE0IHwgMjAlICAgIHwgODAlICB8IDAlICAgICB8CnwgMjAyNS0wNi0yMiB8IDEwJSAgICB8IDg1JSAgfCA1JSAgICAgfAp8IDIwMjUtMDYtMzAgfCAxNSUgICAgfCA4MCUgIHwgNSUgICAgIHwKCui1hOaWmeadpea6kO+8mldpbmTvvIzljY7mupDor4HliLjnoJTnqbbmiYA=
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行业数据
2025-07-03
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2025年7月FOMC会议单月利率变动概率
fCDml6XmnJ8gICAgICAgICB8IC01MGJwcyB8IC0yNWJwcyB8IDBicHMgfCArMjVicHMgfCArNTBicHMgfAp8LS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tfC0tLS0tLS0tLXwtLS0tLS0tLXwKfCAyMDI1LzA2LzAxICAgfCAwJSAgICAgfCAyMCUgICAgfCA3NSUgIHwgNSUgICAgICB8IDAlICAgICB8CnwgMjAyNS8wNi8wMiAgIHwgMCUgICAgIHwgMjUlICAgIHwgNzAlICB8IDUlICAgICAgfCAwJSAgICAgfAp8IDIwMjUvMDYvMDMgICB8IDAlICAgICB8IDMwJSAgICB8IDcwJSAgfCAwJSAgICAgIHwgMCUgICAgIHwKfCAyMDI1LzA2LzA0ICAgfCAwJSAgICAgfCAzNSUgICAgfCA2NSUgIHwgMCUgICAgICB8IDAlICAgICB8CnwgMjAyNS8wNi8wNSAgIHwgMCUgICAgIHwgMjAlICAgIHwgODAlICB8IDAlICAgICAgfCAwJSAgICAgfAp8IDIwMjUvMDYvMDYgICB8IDAlICAgICB8IDE1JSAgICB8IDg1JSAgfCAwJSAgICAgIHwgMCUgICAgIHwKfCAyMDI1LzA2LzA3ICAgfCAwJSAgICAgfCAxNSUgICAgfCA4NSUgIHwgMCUgICAgICB8IDAlICAgICB8CnwgMjAyNS8wNi8wOCAgIHwgMCUgICAgIHwgMTUlICAgIHwgODUlICB8IDAlICAgICAgfCAwJSAgICAgfAp8IDIwMjUvMDYvMDkgICB8IDAlICAgICB8IDE1JSAgICB8IDg1JSAgfCAwJSAgICAgIHwgMCUgICAgIHwKfCAyMDI1LzA2LzEwICAgfCAwJSAgICAgfCAyMCUgICAgfCA3NSUgIHwgNSUgICAgICB8IDAlICAgICB8CnwgMjAyNS8wNi8xMSAgIHwgMCUgICAgIHwgMjUlICAgIHwgNzAlICB8IDUlICAgICAgfCAwJSAgICAgfAp8IDIwMjUvMDYvMTIgICB8IDAlICAgICB8IDMwJSAgICB8IDY1JSAgfCA1JSAgICAgIHwgMCUgICAgIHwKfCAyMDI1LzA2LzEzICAgfCAwJSAgICAgfCAyNSUgICAgfCA3MCUgIHwgNSUgICAgICB8IDAlICAgICB8CnwgMjAyNS8wNi8xNCAgIHwgMCUgICAgIHwgMjUlICAgIHwgNzAlICB8IDUlICAgICAgfCAwJSAgICAgfAp8IDIwMjUvMDYvMTUgICB8IDAlICAgICB8IDIwJSAgICB8IDc1JSAgfCA1JSAgICAgIHwgMCUgICAgIHwKfCAyMDI1LzA2LzE2ICAgfCAwJSAgICAgfCAxNSUgICAgfCA4MCUgIHwgNSUgICAgICB8IDAlICAgICB8CnwgMjAyNS8wNi8xNyAgIHwgMCUgICAgIHwgMTAlICAgIHwgODUlICB8IDUlICAgICAgfCAwJSAgICAgfAp8IDIwMjUvMDYvMTggICB8IDAlICAgICB8IDEwJSAgICB8IDg1JSAgfCA1JSAgICAgIHwgMCUgICAgIHwKfCAyMDI1LzA2LzE5ICAgfCAwJSAgICAgfCAxMCUgICAgfCA4NSUgIHwgNSUgICAgICB8IDAlICAgICB8CgrotYTmlpnmnaXmupDvvJpDTUXjgIFXaW5k44CB5Y2O5rqQ6K+B5Yi456CU56m25omA
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行业数据
2025-06-24
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2025年6月FOMC单月利率变动概率
5Lul5LiL5piv5o+Q5Y+W55qE5pWw5o2u5bm255Sf5oiQ55qE6KGo5qC877yaCgp8IOaXpeacnyAgfCAtMjVicHMgfCAwYnBzIHwgKzI1YnBzIHwKfC0tLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tfC0tLS0tLS0tfAp8IDA1LzA2IHwgMzAlICAgIHwgNjAlICB8IDEwJSAgICB8CnwgMDUvMTQgfCAxMCUgICAgfCA5MCUgIHwgMCUgICAgIHwKfCAwNS8yMiB8IDEwJSAgICB8IDkwJSAgfCAwJSAgICAgfAoK6LWE5paZ5p2l5rqQ77yaV2luZO+8jOWNjua6kOivgeWIuOeglOeptuaJgA==
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行业数据
2025-05-23
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表13、DLB挂钩资产集中于韩国国债三个月利率
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行业数据
2025-01-23
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图52、2024年1-2月利率债供给进度不快
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2024-03-15
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>降息前景展望：前期报告《乘势而上——2026 年宏观经济与资产展望》中我们曾指出，2026 年美国经济大概率迎来弱复苏，同时通胀保持高位，因此经济基本面无需大幅降息；但 2026 年 5 月美联储将迎来主席换届，11 月将迎来国会中期选举，美联储独立性面临挑战。目前市场的降息预期与经济基本面较为相符，但并未充分计价美联储独立性丧失。2026 年初可能是重要窗口，一方面更多经济数据公布，可能显示美国就业和通胀表现分化；另一方面特朗普将提名新主席，其表态将对市场产生重要影响，届时市场就“宽松预期”可能出现激烈博弈，资产价格波动性可能提升。 风险提示：美国经济与通胀、美联储货币政策、地缘冲突持续超预期。
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【国盛证券】兼评12月议息会议：怎么看2026年美联储降息节奏？-251211（5页）.pdf
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