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2026年1月利率维持不变的概率抬升
2026年1月利率维持不变的概率抬升
行业数据
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图片大小：123KB
图片尺寸：1166*862
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所属报告：
【国金证券】A股策略周报：齿轮仍在转动-251214（9页）.pdf
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相关数据
图40、中国香港Hibor-1个月利率
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行业数据
2025-12-25
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2026年1月FOMC单月利率变动概率
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行业数据
2025-12-15
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图表42025年10月VS12月利率声明对比
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行业数据
2025-12-15
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2025年9月利率点阵
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行业数据
2025-12-12
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2025年12月利率点阵
fCDlubTku70gICAgICAgfCDliKnnjofkuK3kvY3mlbDvvIgl77yJIHwKfC0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLXwtLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLXwKfCAyMDI1ICAgICAgIHwgMy42ICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwKfCAyMDI2ICAgICAgIHwgMy4zICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwKfCAyMDI3ICAgICAgIHwgMy4yICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwKfCAyMDI4ICAgICAgIHwgMy4yICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwKfCBMb25nZXIgcnVuIHwgMy4yICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwKCui1hOaWmeadpea6kO+8mkZFRO+8jOWbveebm+ivgeWIuOeglOeptuaJgA==
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行业数据
2025-12-12
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2025年12月FOMC单月利率变动概率
fCDml6XmnJ8gICAgICAgfCAtMjVicHMgfCAwYnBzIHwgKzI1YnBzIHwKfC0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLXwtLS0tLS0tLXwtLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tLS18CnwgMjAyNS0xMS0xMiB8IDY3JSAgICB8IDM1JSAgfCAwJSAgICAgfAp8IDIwMjUtMTEtMjAgfCAyNyUgICAgfCA3NiUgIHwgMCUgICAgIHwKfCAyMDI1LTExLTI4IHwgNzklICAgIHwgMjIlICB8IDAlICAgICB8CgrotYTmlpnmnaXmupDvvJpXaW5k77yM5Y2O5rqQ6K+B5Yi456CU56m25omA
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行业数据
2025-12-01
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2025年12月FOMC单月利率变动概率
PHxiZWdpbl9vZl9ib3h8Pnwg5pel5pyfICAgICAgIHwgLTI1YnBzIHwgMGJwcyB8ICsyNWJwcyB8CnwtLS0tLS0tLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tfC0tLS0tLS0tfAp8IDIwMjUtMTAtMjkgfCA5MCUgICAgfCAxMyUgIHwgMCUgICAgIHwKfCAyMDI1LTExLTA2IHwgNjIlICAgIHwgNDAlICB8IDAlICAgICB8CnwgMjAyNS0xMS0xNCB8IDQyJSAgICB8IDYwJSAgfCAwJSAgICAgfAoK6LWE5paZ5p2l5rqQ77yaV2luZO+8jOWNjua6kOivgeWIuOeglOeptuaJgDx8ZW5kX29mX2JveHw+
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行业数据
2025-11-17
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2025年12月FOMC单月利率变动概率
fCDml6XmnJ8gICAgICAgfCAtMjVicHMgKCUpIHwgMGJwcyAoJSkgfCArMjVicHMgKCUpIHwKfC0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLXwtLS0tLS0tLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tLS0tLXwtLS0tLS0tLS0tLS18CnwgMjAyNS0xMC0xNSB8IDk1ICAgICAgICAgfCA2ICAgICAgICB8IDAgICAgICAgICAgfAp8IDIwMjUtMTAtMjMgfCA5MiAgICAgICAgIHwgOSAgICAgICAgfCAwICAgICAgICAgIHwKfCAyMDI1LTEwLTMxIHwgNjIgICAgICAgICB8IDM5ICAgICAgIHwgMCAgICAgICAgICB8CgrotYTmlpnmnaXmupDvvJpXaW5k77yM5Y2O5rqQ6K+B5Yi456CU56m25omA
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行业数据
2025-11-03
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2025年10月FOMC单月利率变动概率
PHxiZWdpbl9vZl9ib3h8Pnwg5pel5pyfICAgICAgIHwgLTI1YnBzICglKSB8IDBicHMgKCUpIHwgKzI1YnBzICglKSB8CnwtLS0tLS0tLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tfC0tLS0tLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tfAp8IDIwMjUtMDktMDMgfCA1MiAgICAgICAgIHwgNDkgICAgICAgfCAwICAgICAgICAgIHwKfCAyMDI1LTA5LTExIHwgOTMgICAgICAgICB8IDggICAgICAgIHwgMCAgICAgICAgICB8CnwgMjAyNS0wOS0xOSB8IDk0ICAgICAgICAgfCA3ICAgICAgICB8IDAgICAgICAgICAgfAoK6LWE5paZ5p2l5rqQ77yaV2luZO+8jOWNjua6kOivgeWIuOeglOeptuaJgDx8ZW5kX29mX2JveHw+
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行业数据
2025-09-22
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2025年7月FOMC会议单月利率变动概率
5Lul5LiL5piv5o+Q5Y+W55qE5pWw5o2u5bm255Sf5oiQ55qE6KGo5qC877yaCgp8IOaXpeacnyAgICAgICB8IC0yNWJwcyB8IDBicHMgfCArMjVicHMgfAp8LS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tfC0tLS0tLS0tfC0tLS0tLXwtLS0tLS0tLXwKfCAyMDI1LTA2LTE0IHwgMjAlICAgIHwgODAlICB8IDAlICAgICB8CnwgMjAyNS0wNi0yMiB8IDEwJSAgICB8IDg1JSAgfCA1JSAgICAgfAp8IDIwMjUtMDYtMzAgfCAxNSUgICAgfCA4MCUgIHwgNSUgICAgIHwKCui1hOaWmeadpea6kO+8mldpbmTvvIzljY7mupDor4HliLjnoJTnqbbmiYA=
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行业数据
2025-07-03
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2025年7月FOMC会议单月利率变动概率
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行业数据
2025-06-24
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2025年6月FOMC单月利率变动概率
5Lul5LiL5piv5o+Q5Y+W55qE5pWw5o2u5bm255Sf5oiQ55qE6KGo5qC877yaCgp8IOaXpeacnyAgfCAtMjVicHMgfCAwYnBzIHwgKzI1YnBzIHwKfC0tLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tfC0tLS0tLS0tfAp8IDA1LzA2IHwgMzAlICAgIHwgNjAlICB8IDEwJSAgICB8CnwgMDUvMTQgfCAxMCUgICAgfCA5MCUgIHwgMCUgICAgIHwKfCAwNS8yMiB8IDEwJSAgICB8IDkwJSAgfCAwJSAgICAgfAoK6LWE5paZ5p2l5rqQ77yaV2luZO+8jOWNjua6kOivgeWIuOeglOeptuaJgA==
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行业数据
2025-05-23
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表13、DLB挂钩资产集中于韩国国债三个月利率
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行业数据
2025-01-23
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图52、2024年1-2月利率债供给进度不快
fCDmnIjku70gfCAyMDIw5bm0IHwgMjAyMeW5tCB8IDIwMjLlubQgfCAyMDIz5bm0IHwgMjAyNOW5tCB8CnwtLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tLS18CnwgMSAgICB8IDYwMDAgICB8IDIwMDAgICB8IDcwMDAgICB8IDcwMDAgICB8IDcwMDAgICB8CnwgMiAgICB8IDUwMDAgICB8IDQwMDAgICB8IDUwMDAgICB8IDYwMDAgICB8IDYwMDAgICB8CnwgMyAgICB8IDcwMDAgICB8IDUwMDAgICB8IDgwMDAgICB8IDUwMDAgICB8IDUwMDAgICB8CnwgNCAgICB8IDUwMDAgICB8IDYwMDAgICB8IDcwMDAgICB8IDQwMDAgICB8IDQwMDAgICB8CnwgNSAgICB8IDE3MDAwICB8IDgwMDAgICB8IDE2MDAwICB8IDYwMDAgICB8IDYwMDAgICB8CnwgNiAgICB8IDYwMDAgICB8IDcwMDAgICB8IDUwMDAgICB8IDUwMDAgICB8IDUwMDAgICB8CnwgNyAgICB8IDMwMDAgICB8IDQwMDAgICB8IDMwMDAgICB8IDQwMDAgICB8IDQwMDAgICB8CnwgOCAgICB8IDEzMDAwICB8IDkwMDAgICB8IDgwMDAgICB8IDkwMDAgICB8IDkwMDAgICB8CnwgOSAgICB8IDEwMDAwICB8IDgwMDAgICB8IDcwMDAgICB8IDgwMDAgICB8IDgwMDAgICB8CnwgMTAgICB8IDkwMDAgICB8IDcwMDAgICB8IDYwMDAgICB8IDcwMDAgICB8IDcwMDAgICB8CnwgMTEgICB8IDgwMDAgICB8IDYwMDAgICB8IDUwMDAgICB8IDYwMDAgICB8IDYwMDAgICB8CnwgMTIgICB8IDcwMDAgICB8IDUwMDAgICB8IDQwMDAgICB8IDUwMDAgICB8IDUwMDAgICB8
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2024-03-15
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从海外来看，本周最大的边际变化在于降息落地、美联储宣布启动购买短期国债。与 AI类似的是，虽然宽松的靴子落地，但市场预期层面开始定价未来降息的节奏可能放缓，这带来了对资产定价的扰动；而实际上在实体经济层面，降息之后可能就会强化当前投资＞消费的趋势。
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【国金证券】A股策略周报：齿轮仍在转动-251214（9页）.pdf
12月无论是长期还是短期的通胀预期都在持续
认为未来一年失业率增加的调查人数占比依旧处
本周公布的美国初请失业金人数处于2022年以
2025年以来随着AI的不断发展，美国失业率持
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