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国家会展中心排展次数大超疫情前

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所属报告：

休闲服务行业深度报告：社服2022年度策略把握复苏节奏布局优质龙头-211208（50页）.pdf

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需求端：商旅复苏受疫情反弹干扰，特效药推进释放积极信号。商旅需求方面，我们以商务活动 PMI 作为酒店行业商旅需求的观测指标：参考 2008 年金融危机后的情况，2008Q3 商务活动 PMI 大幅下跌，需求严重萎靡导致酒店行业经营困难，供给短期内大幅出清。而随着 PMI 快速反弹，而此前退出的供给远未修复，供需关系陡然改变，行业于 2009Q3 开始进入景气区间。本轮周期中 19Q4-20Q1 商务活动 PMI 大幅下跌，20Q2 开始商务活动 PMI 快速反弹，自 20Q4 开始略有震荡，总体仍处于波动上行区间，21Q2&Q3 受疫情反复影响商务活动 PMI 再次回落。从铁路/民航客运来看，尽管恢复率 2021 春节期间有所下挫，3 月以来客运人次相对2019 年同比持续增长并于 4 月&5 月达到疫情后恢复率新高，此后恢复率受疫情反弹影响呈震荡态势。此外，以国展中心作为样本观测，2021 年排展数量亦取得大幅提升，将对会展举办期间周边酒店的业绩带来拉动。尽管零星疫情对出行市场带来一定影响，但国内疫情防控机制已经高度成熟，随着疫苗铺开&特效药推进，看好未来商旅出行进一步复苏。旅游需求方面，旅游需求的复苏成为酒店行业复苏的重要驱动，2021 年清明/五一/端午/中秋/国庆假期日均出游人次分别恢复至2019 年同期的 95%/103%/99%/87%/70%。假期内酒店需求的爆发性增长，结合供给短缺的现状，酒店房价相比 2019 年同期普遍实现大幅增长，拉动酒店业绩复苏：五一期间，全国酒店入住率已经全面超过 2019 年同期；其中高星酒店尤其受到游客欢迎，国内主要城市高端及以上酒店业绩对比 2019 年均有大幅增长。龙头酒店集团同样表现不俗：华住境内/锦江境内/首旅旗下如家品牌的酒店在五一假期期间RevPAR 相比 19 年同期分别取得了 25%/27%/10%的增长。下半年受疫情反弹及出行管控影响，假期日均出行人次恢复率不及上半年，影响酒店行业复苏进程，但随着特效药的推进和疫苗铺开，后续影响有望减弱，预计 2022 年酒店需求将进一步复苏。

行业数据原图定位