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日本MLCC出口单价十年走势：两轮涨价周期后创0.79日元新高

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所属报告：

国瓷材料-300285-A股公司研究报告：稀土重构陶瓷格局国产替代正当时-260715（25页）.pdf

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2013年至2025年，日本MLCC出口单价从0.38日元/个波动上涨至0.79日元/个。经历2016-2018年（累计涨幅93.38%）和2020-2022年两轮典型涨价周期，2025年底单价达0.79日元/个，为统计期内历史最高水平。AI算力驱动的第三轮涨价周期正在开启。数据来源：日本经济财务省贸易统计，国投证券证券研究所

2013-2025年日本MLCC出口单价关键节点与周期复盘
时间	单价（日元/个）	YOY（%）	周期背景
2013-01	0.38	+20%	周期起点
2016-10	0.30	-10%	第一轮涨价前低点
2018-01	0.52	+20%	第一轮涨价周期（2016-2019），累计涨幅93.38%
2018-11	0.58	+48%	第一轮涨价周期（2016-2019），累计涨幅93.38%
2020-12	0.56	+5%	疫情后需求恢复
2022-03	0.73	+30%	第二轮涨价周期（2020-2022），累计涨幅约30%
2022-08	0.76	+48%	第二轮涨价周期（2020-2022），累计涨幅约30%
2025-12	0.79	+18%	AI驱动第三轮涨价周期启动

数据来源：日本经济财务省贸易统计，国投证券证券研究所

从2013年至2025年日本MLCC出口单价的变化来看，可以提炼出三个关键特征：
十年单价翻倍，从0.38日元升至0.79日元。 MLCC出口单价从2013年初的0.38日元/个波动上涨至2025年底的0.79日元/个，累计涨幅约108%。2022年8月达0.76日元、2025年12月进一步攀升至0.79日元，连续刷新历史高点，反映MLCC长期价格中枢的持续抬升。
两轮典型涨价周期节奏清晰。第一轮（2016-2019年）：单价从0.30日元低点升至0.58日元峰值，累计涨幅93.38%，由日系厂商产能结构调整驱动。第二轮（2020-2022年）：单价从0.56日元升至0.76日元峰值，累计涨幅约36%，由疫情后需求恢复和成本上行推动。当前AI算力需求扩张正驱动第三轮涨价周期，2025年底0.79日元单价已超越前两轮峰值。
本轮周期由AI需求驱动，涨价幅度或超此前周期。报告指出，本轮MLCC涨价主要由下游AI需求扩张驱动，AI服务器、数据中心和汽车电子是主要拉动项，预计涨价幅度或超此前周期。高端钛酸钡介质粉作为MLCC核心陶瓷介质材料，有望同步跟随高端MLCC进入提价通道。