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风电IRR与消纳比例的关系
风电IRR与消纳比例的关系
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所属报告：
节能风电-公司研究报告：优秀风电运营商预期资产质量改善-241217（23页）.pdf
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55Sx5LqO5Zu+54mH5Lit5pyq5YyF5ZCr5ZCE5pe26Ze054K555qE5YW35L2TSVJS5pWw5YC877yM5peg5rOV55Sf5oiQ57K+56Gu5pWw5o2u6KGo5qC844CCICAK6LWE5paZ5p2l5rqQ77yaaUZpbmTvvIzlm73ms7DlkJvlronmnJ/otKfnoJTnqbY=
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2026-01-12
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国债期货主力合约IRR走势
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55Sx5LqO5Zu+6KGo5Lit5pyq5qCH5rOo5YW35L2T5pWw5YC877yM5peg5rOV5o+Q5Y+W57K+56Gu5pWw5o2u55Sf5oiQ6KGo5qC844CCICAKCui1hOaWmeadpea6kO+8mmlGaW5k77yM5Zu95rOw5ZCb5a6J5pyf6LSn56CU56m2
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国债期货主力合约IRR走势
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弃电率上升或电价下降时，净利率先于 IRR 由正转负。若弃电率较低、营业收入大于折旧，则净利率的提升幅度会随着弃电率的下降而边际递减；若弃电率较高、营业收入低于折旧， 则净利率 的下降幅度会随着弃电率的上升而边际递增。 我们选取了资本金 IRR 在 7%~12%的风电和光伏电站项目进行测算，弃电率每上升 5pct（即消纳比例下降 5pct），所有项目均出现了 IRR 加速下降的趋势，因绿电项目的固定成本占比高，利润随着发电量减少而加速摊薄。高 IRR 的绿电项目具有更强的抵御弃电率上升风险的能力，当弃电率达到 15%时，仅初始 IRR 8~12%的项目仍可能实现一定的投资回报；但弃电率一旦突破 30%，绝大部分绿电项目都将无法收回投资。
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