中信期货国际化：2026年全球新能源车销量展望报告-251215（31页）.pdf

1、 vestment consulting business qualification：CSRC License 2012 No.669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 2025-12-15 中信期货国际化研究中信期货国际化研究|CITIC Futures International Research New Energy Vehicle Annual Outlook 2026 年全球年全球新能源车新能源车销量展望销量展望 Abstract 摘要摘要 In 2025,Chinas domestic sales of new energy vehicles(NEV)met ex

2、pectations,while export performance remained strong,and NEVs have become the main driver of Chinas auto exports.As domestic subsidies have gradually retrenched,the overall growth rate of NEVs has slowed.Chinas NEV passenger vehicle wholesale sales are projected to reach 17.47 million units in 2026,u

3、p 14%YoY.Meanwhile,the market structures of Europe and the U.S.have shown some divergence.In Europe,the resumption of subsidies across countries has led to a marginal recovery in the EV market;European NEV sales are expected to hit 4.08 million units in 2026,a 20%YoY increase.In the U.S.,the removal

4、 of subsidies and tariff adjustments have jointly pushed up vehicle purchase costs.U.S.NEV sales are forecast to reach 1.67 million units in 2026(YoY+3%).In summary,global NEV sales are projected to hit 23.65 million units in 2026(YoY+16%).Correspondingly,power battery output is estimated to reach 1

5、,635 GWh(YoY+24%),translating to a lithium carbonate demand of approximately 1.25 million tons.Risks：Macro Policy,Geopolitical Event 2025 年中国新能源车内销符合预期，出口端表现优异年中国新能源车内销符合预期，出口端表现优异，新能源成为汽车出口主力新能源成为汽车出口主力。国内补贴逐步退坡，国内补贴逐步退坡，总体增速有所放缓，预测总体增速有所放缓，预测 2026 年中国新能源乘用车批发销量至年中国新能源乘用车批发销量至 1747 万辆，同比增长万辆，同比增长 1

6、4%。欧美市场格局则有所分化，欧洲各国补贴重启，欧洲电动车市场迎来边际复苏，预期，预期 2026 年欧洲新能源车销售至年欧洲新能源车销售至 408 万万辆，同比增长辆，同比增长 20%。美国市场补贴取消与关税调整共同推升购车成本美国市场补贴取消与关税调整共同推升购车成本，预测，预测 2026 年美国新能源车销量年美国新能源车销量 167万辆（同比万辆（同比+3%）。）。综上，2026 年预测全球新能源销售 2365 万辆（同比+16%），测算相应动力电池产量达 1635Gwh（同比+24%），对应碳酸锂需求约为 125 万吨。风险提示：宏观政策，地缘事件 孙泽宇 Zhang Mohan 从业资