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瑞士百达:2025人口结构变迁与科技创新十字路下的投资机会新前沿研究报告(中译版)(56页).pdf

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1、Maria Vassalou,PhD Pictet Research InstituteDemographics and technologypictet group October 2025A new frontier of investmentopportunities at thecrossroads of populationchange and technologicalinnovationAgeing economies face a stark choice:do nothing and decline or transform and continueto grow.Fortu

2、nately,automation and AI can go a long way to counterbalance the shrinkage of the labour force,and the timing of their evolution is opportune.3Demographic change is transforming our societies and economies.Its steady creep is gathering pace and force,de-manding that countries adapt and innovate if t

3、hey are to cope with the deep,structural shifts that their populations are just starting to experience.While the drivers of population change are multiple and uneven,one constant holds true:by 2050 the worlds leading economies are all expected to experience a signif-icant increase in dependency,or t

4、he ratio between those not working and working.Unlike other economic forecasts that are estimated with a significant level of uncertainty,the probability that projected demographic changes will take place is very high.In addition,there is not much a country can do to materially alter its demographic

5、 course,especially in the span of a couple of decades.Ageing economies face a stark choice:do nothing and de-cline or transform and continue to grow.Fortunately,automa-tion and artificial intelligence(AI)can go a long way to coun-terbalance the shrinkage of the labour force,and the timing of their e

6、volution is opportune.Governments and companies have thus a viable path to growth going forward.Our study focuses on examining the interplay of demographics and technology with the aim of identifying the potential growth drivers and investment opportunities of the future.The interplay between demogr

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根据《Data>标记中的内容,本文主要探讨了人口变化和技术创新交汇带来的投资机会。以下是全文关键点: 1. 人口老龄化趋势明显,预计到2050年,主要经济体都将面临劳动力短缺、生产率下降和依赖率上升等问题。 2. 自动化和人工智能(AI)可以缓解劳动力短缺,并有望推动经济增长。 3. 自动化通常分为两个阶段:首先是用机器人替代工人,然后是提高生产率的机器人。 4. 成功应对自动化两个阶段的经济体将能够通过提高生产率来抵消劳动力短缺,而仅停留在替代阶段的经济体可能会面临竞争力下降的风险。 5. AI预计将在2030年代达到生产率峰值,为应对老龄化经济体面临的重大人口挑战提供及时支持。 6. 消费模式的变化将对经济产生广泛影响,理解这些变化对于识别未来的投资机会至关重要。 7. 投资机会可能出现在那些有利于AI、满足老龄化人口需求并拥有足够技术基础设施的经济体。
"老龄化经济,AI如何破局?" "人口变迁,投资新风口?" "自动化浪潮,未来赢家是谁?"
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