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美国农业部(USDA):2025巴西畜禽及产品年度报告(中译版)(39页).pdf

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1、 THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S.GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report:Required-Public Distribution Date:September 09,2025 Report Number:BR2025-0024 Report Name:Livestock and Products Annual Country:Brazil P

2、ost:Brasilia Report Category:Livestock and Products Prepared By:Camila Aquino Approved By:Joseph Degreenia Report Highlights:Brazil is the second largest beef producing country and the largest beef exporting country in the world.Post expects decreased slaughter in 2026,due to the estimated start of

3、the reversion of the cattle cycle in the second half of 2025.Producers are likely to begin holding cattle from the market starting in 2025,driving calf prices upwards.Record beef exports are forecasted for 2026.Domestic consumption is forecasted to decrease,as producers will prioritize exports,drive

4、n by strong external demand,devalued local currency,and challenges faced by foreign competitors.The swine industry is expected to increase in both production and slaughter in 2026.As a result,Post forecasts increased pork production,stable domestic consumption,and record exports in 2026.EXECUTIVE SU

5、MMARY Cattle Brazil is the third-largest cattle producing country in the world.Post forecasts calf crop at 49.6 million head of cattle in 2026,a five percent increase from 2025.Post estimates the start of the reversion of the cattle cycle for the second half of 2025.Producers are likely to start ret

6、aining cattle,sending prices upwards,as a result of reduced calf availability.Post forecasts a four percent slaughter decrease in 2026 following increased slaughter in the previous years.High cow slaughter is forecasted to decrease,as cow retention starts.On May 29th,2025,WOAH declared Brazil as fre

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根据报告的内容,本文主要概括了2026年巴西牛肉、猪肉和活牛的生产、消费和贸易情况。以下是关键点: 1. **牛肉生产和贸易**:预计2026年牛肉产量为11.5百万吨CWE,出口量为3.55百万吨CWE,占全球出口的28%。中国是最大的牛肉出口市场,占48%。 2. **猪肉生产和贸易**:预计2026年猪肉产量为4.81百万吨CWE,出口量为1.79百万吨CWE,占全球出口的37%。菲律宾是最大的猪肉出口市场,占22%。 3. **活牛贸易**:预计2026年活牛出口量为100万头,主要出口到中东地区。 4. **牛肉和猪肉消费**:预计2026年牛肉消费量为8.04百万吨CWE,猪肉消费量为3.02百万吨CWE。 5. **动物疾病**:巴西被宣布为无口蹄疫国家,有利于扩大牛肉和猪肉的出口。 6. **经济因素**:预计2026年巴西经济增长1.9%,通胀率4.3%,雷亚尔贬值,有利于牛肉和猪肉的出口。 7. **饲料供应**:预计2026年巴西饲料产量增长3%,有利于畜牧业生产。 以上是本文的主要内容和关键数据。
"巴西牛肉出口,2026年将达历史新高?" "巴西猪肉市场,2026年将如何发展?" "巴西畜牧业,2026年面临哪些挑战?"
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