【招银国际】1H25 earnings under ST pressure, LT gains from capacity expansion and channel reform-250902（7页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 2 Sep 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Equity Research|Company Update CR Beverage(2460 HK)CR Beverage(2460 HK)-1H25 earnings under ST pressure,LT gains from capa

2、city expansion 1H25 earnings under ST pressure,LT gains from capacity expansion and channel reform The Companys 1H25 revenue/NP dropped 18.5/29%YoY,in line with the profit warning.The weakness was attributable to a 23%YoY decline in the water biz(hit by weak demand,fierce competition and channel ref

3、orm)and moderated beverage growth(+21%YoY)driven by volume growth but price decline.We expect full-year revenue decline to narrow given low 2H24 base and positive sales in Jul-Aug.Capacity expansion proceeds as planned,while positive impacts are muted by sales pressure.Since in-depth channel reform

4、is ongoing which is expected to be completed by 2026,we anticipate the combined benefits of both to materialize in FY26 or beyond.We cut our TP by 41%to HK$12.85 to reflect earnings pressure.The new TP implies 18x 2026E P/E,as we believe 2026 will be the year when the impacts of reform gradually eas

5、e and its business shifts to steady-state operation.Meanwhile,as a central SOE,the Companys business plan will be incorporated into the Five-Year Plan,and it is reasonable to clear earnings drags before the new phase,in our view.Maintain BUY.Water biz under ST pressure,Beverage biz growth moderates.

6、Water biz revenue declined 23%YoY to RMB 5,251mn in 1H25,with small-sized/medium-to-large sized/barreled water down 26.2%/19.4%/1.5%YoY respectively,due to weak demand,fierce competition and the companys channel reform.Beverage grew 21%YoY to RMB955mn(vs.40%/31%in 1H24/FY24)as promotion spending wei