【招银国际】China Economy: Solid growth lowers policy easing likelihood-250716（8页）.pdf

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1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 16 Jul 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Macro Research|Economic Perspectives China Economy Solid growth lowers policy easing likelihood Chinas 2Q GDP remained ro

2、bust thanks to exports front-loading,fiscal expansion and the trade-in scheme.However,the economy showed signs of moderation in June,as property sales,retail sales and fixed-asset investment notably softened.New and second-hand housing sales dropped to contraction in early July,as its recovery rate

3、compared to 2019 dropped back to the level in Sep 2024.Retail sales in June moderated due to the fading policy effect and strict alcohol ban on government officials,while FAI lost steam across major sectors.However,the industrial output remained robust thanks to the exports surge in June following t

4、he tariff truce.China economy is likely to experience further headwinds in 2H25,as softening property sales,diminishing policy effect of the trade-in scheme and strict alcohol ban on government employees weigh on consumption,and payback from previous exports front-loading to suppress manufacturing o

5、utput and investment.With the trade deal with the US being reached potentially in 4Q25,China might focus on economy rebalancing with stronger fiscal expansion,additional consumption stimulus and faster overcapacity reduction.In 4Q25,we expect a further 10bps LPR cut and 50bps RRR cut.We see the need

6、 to ramp up direct fiscal support to households and the property sector,as lifting purchase restrictions and trade-in scheme seem hardly sufficient now.2Q GDP growth inline with market expectation but deflation pressure worsened.Chinas GDP growth in YoY terms(all on a YoY basis unless otherwise spec