【招银国际】China Economy: Exports cooled amid evolving tariff policy-250610（8页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 10 Jun 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Equity Research|Economic Perspectives China Economy Exports cooled amid evolving tariff policy Chinas exports fell short

2、of expectations,as exports to the US further slumped despite the tariff truce in early May.Transportation equipment surged;while property-related goods and personal tech products declined.Imports further slowed down as domestic demand softened,particularly in intermediate goods including steel&coppe

3、r products and plastics.Even though bookings and ocean freight rates from China to the US skyrocketed,which point to a notable short-term rebound in Chinese exports,we still expect the export growth to weaken notably in the second half of 2025.The continued contraction in inventory and import compon

4、ents of both the US manufacturing and services PMIs suggested that front-loading demand may lose steam in the coming months.As a result,export moderation could emerge as a key headwind to Chinas economic momentum in the second half of 2025 due to the payback effect from export front-loading.Looking

5、forward,we expect Chinas export growth to decelerate from 5.9%in 2024 to 1%in 2025,while import growth may mildly slow down from 1.1%to 0.5%.USD/RMB rates might fluctuate within 7.20-7.25 before a moderate decline to 7.12-7.17 if a trade deal is reached.Exports to the US further deteriorated despite

6、 the tariff truce.Exports further slowed down to 4.8%(all on a YoY basis unless specified)in May from 8.1%in Apr,missing market expectation of 6.2%.Exports to the US further slumped 34.5%in May despite the tariffs truce in early May.We expect the rebound of exports to the US will be more notable in