【招银国际】China Policy: China’s policy outlook after the tariff shock-250428（6页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 28 Apr 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Equity Research|Economic Perspectives China Policy Chinas policy outlook after the tariff shock The Politburo held a meet

2、ing last Friday(25 Apr),calling for solid efforts to deal with the uncertainties caused by the US tariff shock.The meeting indicates that China will not succumb to US pressure as it prepares for a prolonged Sino-US conflict.Policymakers planned measures for 2Q25 include a mild cut in RRR and LPRs,sp

3、eeding up government bond issuance and fiscal spending,targeting employment support,especially in affected sectors,expanding the trade-in subsidy to include more durable goods,accelerating the AI+initiative,opening up the service sector,strengthening trade ties with non-US economies,supporting compa

4、nies to go global,stabilising the housing market and stimulating the capital market.The policy plan for 2Q25 seems conservative,as the policymakers need more time to observe and assess the dynamics of the Trump shock and its impact on Chinas economic growth.Policymakers may turn to aggressive fiscal

5、 stimulus to boost consumption in 2H25,as exports continue to slow while durable sales start to lose momentum.Keeping RMB and stock markets relatively stable might be a key target for China in struggling with the US.Politburo meeting outlines policy plan for 2Q25.Policymakers have stressed the need

6、to coordinate domestic economic work with global economic wars,indicating that China will not bow to US pressure as it prepares for a prolonged Sino-US conflict in the future.The Politburo proposed seven aspects of policy in 2Q25 to counter the tariff shock.First,additional cuts in RRR and LPR.We ex